Scenarios for China’s Future: A One-Day Pre-Conference Workshop
Join us for the opportunity to participate in an authentic scenario planning experience April 21, 2017 at Penn State’s School of International Affairs. Our pre-conference workshop is facilitated by an invited guest, Matthew Spaniol, an experienced scenario planning and foresight expert, and, currently, Industrial PhD Fellow at Danish Maritime.
Topics of investigation focus on China’s future as it pertains to the general direction of the full conference event, namely, “New International Trade and Investment Rules between Globalization and Anti-Globalization.” As such, this event is appropriate for students and scholars with a general interest in China’s future, scholars interested in the world balance of globalization and anti-globalization, and those curious about learning about scenario-based planning.
In light of the unequal penetration of globalization in and between nation-states, questions to be addressed at the workshop include, but are not limited to:
· What is the future of the Chinese nation-state?
· What is the future of Chinese national and international diplomacy?
· What is the future of Chinese global trade and investment policy?
· What is the future of Chinese industry?
Below is the tentative schedule for the pre-conference event, background information on how scenario planning works, and details about our invited guest.
This is the structure of a scenario planning process that lasts one day and will be the structure of the pre-conference workshop.
09:00-09:30 Introduction to scenario planning and orientation to the future
09:30-10:30 Engage in first iteration in the development of future scenarios
10:30-10:45 Coffee/Tea Break
10:45-12:00 Underpinning logic of the scenario method
12:00-12:45 Break for Lunch (provided)
12:45-14:00 Engage in second iteration in the development of future scenario
14:00-14:15 Coffee/Tea Break
14:15-15:45 Informal presentation of scenarios and discussion
15:45-16:00 Closing remarks and tentative answers to the grand questions
More on Scenario Planning
This pre-conference workshop presents a unique opportunity for scholars interested in China to cast themselves into the future to explore a range of plausible futures through the guided use of the scenario method. Also called “strategic scenario analysis,” scenario planning is a widely-used tool in all markets, sectors, and industries, though they were formerly reserved for national militaries and elite corporations. Scenario-based methods are increasingly adopted in academic settings as an exercise that reconfigures assumptions about the future and that result in new frames for understanding complex, global issues. Additionally, experience with scenario planning can inform and update working hypotheses about the future, and lead to insights and the identification of strategic options. Strategic scenario planning is a tool to simulate, foresee, anticipate, and structure the future in an uncertain world.
In the end, scenarios convert relevant concerns for the future into explorable landscapes. The method moves discussion to the established limits of knowledge, and provides a platform to explore what lies beyond. Because of their flexible design and participant-driven method, scenarios are valuable in their ability to deliver high-energy discussions and consolidate viewpoints. They are safe spaces for framing dialogue.
Space is limited; please reserve your seat by sending an email to: XXX@.edu
About our invited guest and facilitator
Matthew Spaniol is a scenario planning and corporate foresight expert. He is an Industrial PhD Fellow at Danish Maritime, a member-based organization representing the interests of the maritime industry in Copenhagen, Denmark. He has published in Foresight and Technological Forecasting and Social Change. His research interests include philosophy, STS, anticipation, foresight, and applied futures methodologies. Matthew has experience working for the Oxford Scenarios Programme and as an analyst at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.