Great feudal autocracies face a difficult balancing--one that is impossible to maintain for long periods without substantial and sometimes painful corrections.
On the one hand, these feudal autocracies face what might be called the "Polish Problem"--a "Golden Liberty (Polish: Złota Wolność) in which the nobility retained substantial authority over other social classes and the system of monarchy itsef (a republic under the presidency of the Kong in which the privileges of governance were centered on the nobility). This is a sort of (in Russian terms) boyar democratic dictatorship in which every member of the nobility enjoyed the Liberum veto based on the notion of unanimity and activated by declaring--Nie pozwalam! (I do not allow) or Sisto activitatem! (Latin: I stop the activity) and for everyone else--dictatorship.
On the other hand, these feudal autocracies face what might be called the "praetorian problem"--a concentration of power in a core of leadership that can only be maintained through the support of a praetorian elite (traditionally the military but in Russia perhaps better understood as led by the apparatus of state security with the concurrence of the military hierarchs and key elements of the inner sanctum administrative and economic elites. Here, again, what appears to be concentrated and hierarchical authority can persist only with the concurrence of the ruling circle which exists in a sort of violent and sometimes corrupt symbiosis with its core of leadership. But that circle, in turn, functions within the interaction of the traditional feudal orders--the priest/bureaucrats; the warriros/state security, and the Merchant/boyars (Georges Duby, The Three Orders: Feudal Society Reimagined (University of Chicago Press, 1980, pp. 57-74).
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The imperial capital then prepared for a confrontation between the forces of the core of leadership and the Wagner Group, only to be thwarted as a key semi-autonomous vassal princeling--who currently holds the title of President of Belorussia--announced that a settlement of some kind had been reached between the leader of the Wagner Group and the Russian core of leadership.
The Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny V. Prigozhin announced that his troops marching toward Moscow would turn around, shortly after the leader of Belarus said he was in talks with Mr. Prigozhin on a deal to “de-escalate tensions.”
The negotiations between Mr. Prigozhin and President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus opened the possibility that the rapidly evolving security crisis embroiling the Russian government could be resolved without armed fighting. But Mr. Prigozhin did not immediately say whether his forces were leaving the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, where his forces had he has seized critical military and civilian buildings. (Russia-Ukraine War: Russian Paramilitary Chief Says His Forces Will Turn Around)
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And in this case the traditional use of exile to a vassal state plays well both with traditional tropes and the interests of all parties (Wagner leader Prigozhin will move to Belarus following the mercenary group's uprising against Putin, Kremlin spokesman says). Mr. Putin is not in a position to destroy Mr. Prigozhin and Mr. Prigozhin is not yet in a position to destroy Mr. Putin. Note not destroy the system or its objectives--preserve it, both will claim. But to change the balance between the democratic dictatorship of the nobility (the Polish solution) and the traditional end of the line of Russian politics--the praetorian (and now bureaucratic) autocracy. And the theater in which these internal politics is played out--and facilitated--is Ukraine, both the prize and pathway.
All of this has provided some drama for the consumption of political collectives no longer used to the ebbs and flows of power in dynamic Eastern European autocratic feudal political systems--however well dressed up they might now operate in the operational language of contemporary politics. And it is not done. Once this dynamic starts, it is likely that a host of additional and consequential actions will follow. There will be lots of speculation, but the only thing is it now safe to say is that no one has emerged from this stringer--for the short term. And weak people with authority at their disposal can make for very unpredictable players. I suspect in the current environment, none of the critical actors can let down their guard. For the rest of us, the possibilities of these internal "conversations" spilling either out of their borders or producing substantially greater misery in Ukraine, and the start of of tilt in wartime solidarity from China to a Turkey-Iran axis (see here and here) ought not to be dismissed. Many more things are on the table(s) now and we can expect lots of moves to be made on the three dimensional chess board that is Ukraine on the world stage.
Mr. Putin's address follows in English and the original Russian. It is worth a careful read if only to get a sense of the discursive boxes within which these ancient dynamics now play out.
Address to citizens of Russia
I am addressing citizens of Russia, the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement agencies and security services, and the soldiers and commanders who are now fighting in their combat positions, repulsing enemy attacks and doing it heroically – I know this as I spoke once again with the commanders of all sections of the frontline last night. I am also addressing those who were dragged into this criminal adventure through deceit or threats and pushed onto the path of a grave crime – an armed mutiny.
Today, Russia is waging a tough struggle for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-Nazis and their patrons. The entire military, economic and informational machine of the West is directed against us. We are fighting for the lives and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence, for the right to be and remain Russia, a state with a thousand-year history.
This battle, when the fate of our nation is being decided, requires consolidation of all forces. It requires unity, consolidation and a sense of responsibility, and everything that weakens us, any strife that our external enemies can use and do so to subvert us from within, must be discarded.
Therefore, any actions that split our nation are essentially a betrayal of our people, of our comrades-in-arms who are now fighting at the frontline. This is a knife in the back of our country and our people.
A blow like this was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country was fighting in World War I. But the victory was stolen from it: intrigues, squabbles and politicking behind the backs of the army and the nation turned into the greatest turmoil, the destruction of the army and the collapse of the state, and the loss of vast territories, ultimately leading to the tragedy of the civil war.
Russians were killing Russians and brothers were killing brothers, while all sorts of political adventurers and foreign forces profited from the situation by tearing the country apart to divide it.
We will not allow this to happen again. We will protect our people and our statehood from any threats, including from internal betrayal.
What we are facing is essentially a betrayal. Inflated ambitions and personal interests have led to treason – treason against our country, our people and the common cause which Wagner Group soldiers and commanders were fighting and dying for shoulder to shoulder, together with our other units and troops. The heroes who liberated Soledar and Artyomovsk, towns and villages in Donbass, fought and gave their lives for Novorossiya and the unity of the Russian world. Their memory and glory have also been betrayed by those who are attempting to stage a revolt and are pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide – and ultimately, towards defeat and surrender.
Once again, any internal revolt is a deadly threat to our statehood and our nation. It is a blow to Russia, to our people. Our actions to defend the Fatherland from this threat will be harsh. All those who have consciously chosen the path of betrayal, planned an armed mutiny and taken the path of blackmail and terrorism, will inevitably be punished and will answer before the law and our people.
The Armed Forces and other government agencies have received the necessary orders. Additional counterterrorism measures are now in effect in Moscow, the Moscow Region and several other regions. Resolute action will also be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains difficult; in effect, the work of civil and military authorities has been blocked.
As the President of Russia and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, and as a citizen of Russia, I will take every effort to defend the country and protect the constitutional order as well as the lives, security and freedom of our citizens.
Those who staged the mutiny and took up arms against their comrades – they have betrayed Russia and will be brought to account. I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic mistake but make the only right choice: to stop taking part in criminal actions.
I am certain that we will preserve and defend what we hold dear and sacred, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any hardships and become even stronger.
Обращение к гражданам России
Обращаюсь к гражданам России, к личному составу Вооружённых Сил, правоохранительных органов и специальных служб, к бойцам и командирам, которые сейчас сражаются на своих боевых позициях, отбивают атаки противника, делают это героически – знаю, сегодня ещё раз ночью говорил с командующими всех направлений. Обращаюсь и к тем, кого обманом или угрозами втянули в преступную авантюру, толкнули на путь тяжкого преступления – вооружённого мятежа.
Россия сегодня ведёт тяжелейшую борьбу за своё будущее, отражает агрессию неонацистов и их хозяев. Против нас направлена фактически вся военная, экономическая, информационная машина Запада. Мы боремся за жизнь и безопасность наших людей, за наш суверенитет и независимость. За право быть и оставаться Россией – государством с тысячелетней историей.
Эта битва, когда решается судьба нашего народа, требует единения всех сил, единства, консолидации и ответственности. Когда в сторону должно быть отброшено всё, что ослабляет нас, любые распри, которыми могут воспользоваться и пользуются наши внешние враги, чтобы подорвать нас изнутри.
И потому действия, которые раскалывают наше единство, – это, по сути, отступничество от своего народа, от боевых товарищей, которые сражаются сейчас на фронте. Это удар в спину нашей стране и нашему народу.
Именно такой удар был нанесён по России в 1917 году, когда страна вела Первую мировую войну. Но победу у неё украли. Интриги, склоки, политиканство за спиной армии и народа обернулись величайшим потрясением, разрушением армии и распадом государства, утратой громадных территорий. В итоге – трагедией гражданской войны.
Русские убивали русских, братья – братьев, а корыстную выгоду извлекали разного рода политические авантюристы да зарубежные силы, которые делили страну, рвали её на части.
Мы не дадим этому повториться. Защитим и наш народ, и нашу государственность от любых угроз. В том числе – от внутреннего предательства.
А то, с чем мы столкнулись – это именно предательство. Непомерные амбиции и личные интересы привели к измене. К измене и своей стране, и своему народу, и тому делу, за которое бок о бок с другими нашими частями и подразделениями сражались и погибали бойцы и командиры группы «Вагнер». Герои, которые освобождали Соледар и Артёмовск, города и посёлки Донбасса, сражались и отдавали свои жизни за Новороссию, за единство русского мира. Их имя и славу тоже предали те, кто пытается организовать мятеж, толкает страну к анархии и братоубийству. К поражению, в конечном итоге, и капитуляции.
Повторю, любая внутренняя смута – смертельная угроза для нашей государственности, для нас, как нации. Это удар по России, по нашему народу. И наши действия по защите Отечества от такой угрозы будут жёсткие. Все, кто сознательно встал на путь предательства, кто готовил вооружённый мятеж, встал на путь шантажа и террористических методов, понесут неминуемое наказание, ответят и перед законом, и перед нашим народом.
Вооружённые Силы и другие государственные органы получили необходимые приказы, дополнительные меры антитеррористического характера вводятся сейчас в Москве, Московской области, ряде других регионов. Будут также предприняты решительные действия по стабилизации ситуации в Ростове-на-Дону. Она остаётся сложной, фактически заблокирована работа органов гражданского и военного управления.
Как Президент России и Верховный Главнокомандующий, как гражданин России сделаю всё, чтобы отстоять страну, защитить конституционный строй, жизни, безопасность и свободу граждан.
Тот, кто организовал и готовил военный мятеж, кто поднял оружие на боевых товарищей, – предали Россию. И ответят за это. А тех, кого пытаются втянуть в это преступление, призываю не совершать роковую и трагическую, неповторимую ошибку, сделать единственно правильный выбор – прекратить участие в преступных действиях.
Верю, что мы сбережём и отстоим то, что дорого и свято для нас, и вместе с нашей Родиной мы одолеем любые испытания, станем ещё сильнее.
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