Wednesday, February 18, 2026

End Games? Marc Caputo for Axios: "Exclusive: Rubio's secret squeeze on Raul Castro's Cuba"

 Photo illustration of President Trump, Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, and Marco Rubio, with a topographical map of Cuba

 

Axios has reported on the conversations between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and key elements of the Cuban military establishment--the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias (FAR). Marc Caputo, "Exclusive: Rubio's secret squeeze on Raul Castro's Cuba" Axios.

FAR, of course  is the more or less intact remnant of what had been the revolutionary government of Cuba  between 1959 and 1976 when the present political-economic model was formally instituted. It has remained autonomous enough, its relationship with the state apparatus mimicking that between the brothers Fidel and Raul Castro. The nomenklatura remains committed to the vision of Fidel Castro and the protection of the temporally stagnant purity of Caribbean Marxist-Leninism. They have been key elements in suppressing reforms within Cuba within its Marxist-Leninist parameters, including those of Raul Castro himself at the end of the first decade of the 21st century. The FAR has been Raul's bailiwick almost form the beginning. FAR tends toward a more pragmatic and transactional  approach with closer ties to their counterparts in China. But both are extremely sensitive to issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity. In that respect they follow the discursive pattern of Mexico.

The full reporting follows below, which in essence is essence--reading the signs from hints and whispers that are being dropped. . .strategically. . . including the Axios story.  

The fundamental line though is likely accurate enough. B

1. The signalling about negotiating a Venezuelan resolution to the problem posed by a Cuban State of Misery now beyond control of a nomenklatura that for internal political reasons cannot be displaced is now overwhelming.  (Backer, Cuba's Caribbean Marxism, 2018))  

2. The Cuban nomenklatura has stood in the way of reform from within for decades. And to some extent they are irrevocably tied to FAR. The Cuban military revolutionary government  preceded the nomenklatura, they can serve as a bridge toward the future, the way they did in the 1960s, but this time in a more pragmatically beneficial direction for the Cuban people. Separating the two might not be perceived as a drastic shift if it under appropriate discursive cover. And it provides for internal rectification along lines that resonate with the Cubans themselves.

3. The Mexicans might play a critical role in this discussion of the future. Mexico can serve as a sort of guarantor of good faith, and perhaps a mediator for safe harboring those people whose exits might be necessary to move Cuba forward.  That may produce  benefits in two ways, first facilitating good faith and trust relationships and secondly strengthening potentially the bonds between the US and Mexico. 

4. The Venezuelan pathway underscores the need to start from the premise that no group is going to get everything they want. That is fine. But every group is going to have to value the pathways forward positively from their framework of measurement. That includes internal Cuban constituencies, the Cuban diaspora and its elites in Miami,  and the Caribbean regional actors.  That is tricky but not impossible and much of it can be postponed.The reality is that no one feasts until the kitchen is built. And everyone's rigidity has made kitchen building impossible. 

5. The focus is likely most advantageously transactional. That is natural for the Trump Administration. Ironically, and if framed correctly, aligned with the experiences and operations of FAR.  The key is to get the language right--initially that may require working with the FAR's economic enterprises and negotiating a slow and well managed opening of transactional spaces within Cuba. That builds the meta-spaces for economic activity; consumer level activity and the legal structures for its development might have to start with a reboot built up from and through the so-called informal economy. If everyone means what they say about "people-centered" forward movement than that is essential. Anything else, especially coming from above would severely undermine any pretense that there is any interest in Cuban people, in Cuba, driving changes to their transactional environment. Guidance and capacity building for the long term, of course. And the old Lineamientos projects can serve as a rationalizing structure. (e.g., Larry Catá Backer, 2011. ""Order, Discipline and Exigency": Cuba's VI Party Congress, the Lineamientos (Guidelines)and Structural Change In Education, Sport and Culture?," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 21.)

6. There is already a basis for a democratic organization of the State without abandoning its "socialist" ideals and centering markets driving economics.  All you have to do is look--and look beyond the labels. See Larry Catá Backer and Flora Sapio, Popular Consultation and Referendum in the Making of
Contemporary Cuban Socialist Democracy Practice and Contemporary Cuban Socialist Democracy Practice and Constitutional Theory Constitutional Theory
, 27 U. MIA. Int'l & Compar. L. Rev. 37
(2020). Available at: https://repository.law.miami.edu/umiclr/vol27/iss1/4

7. All the the pieces are here: (1) internal actors ready for reform; (2) the possibilities of reform without chaos and within the current structures of political organization, (3) the framework for economic organization that serves as a nuclear of reform going forward; (5) the development of an informal sector that can serve as the driver and foundation for consumer and end product indigenous economic operations, and (6) potential key regional partners who can facilitate what can be organic  movement in ways that provide a (socialist) democratic transition that may be sufficient to  end the current state of relations between the US and Cuba.

8. All that is then left is money (lots f it); and patience--and infrastructure and development--the sort of transactional positives that may, in their own way provide a space for diaspora and mainland Cubans to begin better relations, and for regional development with synergies benefiting all participants. 

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Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Reflections on Friendship, the Power of National Self-Actualization, and the Defining Baseline of 1963 in and as America First--Text of Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference

 

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What a difference a year makes. 

Last year at the Munch Security Conference Vice President Vance delivered a feisty feast of words very much in the political style of the Vice President: Democratic Demons and Family Drama, A Valentine's Day Text From the United States for their European Soulmates--Vice President JD Vance's Remarks Delivered at the 2025 Munich Security Conference. For his European hosts, however, the textual delights he proffered might have left a bad taste. 

This year Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a brief, honest, but much better received statement that raised the same issues, but perhaps in a considerably different way. In the Secretary's Remarks Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference.

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By now, given the speed of news "cycles"--that is of the relevance of text and performance by officials in the contemporary era (and thus the need for constant if repetitive reproduction)--most any one who has something to say about Secretary of State Rubio's Address at the Munich Security Council and the proceedings themselves has already had a go. And, indeed, it may be worth a moment to consider the way that the cognitive processes of contemporary governance systems and the fundamental operational logic of tech based or enhanced decision making (including its own self regeneration). Both are increasingly iterative and mimetic, though the mimesis, as is its fundamental character not identically repetitive. The intensity, rates of iteration, and character of mimesis (measuring δ) between interactions, produces the data necessary and from out of which it may be possible to understand the principles, premises, and cognitive structures of the collectives engaged in these Luhmannesque system, sub-systems, and their structural coupling, 

Time is up. Back to the iterative matter at hand.

In the usual half a week given to these event data blips Secretary Rubio's remarks have been consumed. And, and like most consumable, it has provided   a certain amount of "nutrient" or positive value, leaving the rest for emptying the nocturnal fragrance (倒夜香) of what remains to be carting away .  The popular legacy press reported it this way:

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered a reassuring message to America’s allies on Saturday, striking a less aggressive but still firm tone about the administration’s intent to reshape the trans-Atlantic alliance and push its priorities after more than a year of President Donald Trump’s often-hostile rhetoric toward traditional allies. * * * Rubio addressed the conference a year after Vice President JD Vance stunned the same audience with a harsh critique of European values. (here)

The focus was clear enough--it is not clear that anyone in the popular press is particularly interested in what the Secretary has to say or parsing through its structures and assumptions. No. One had the impression that the greatest value of the secretary's remarks is as an artifact the extracted essence of which might make the contest for the succession of President Trump for more interesting (for them at least). And there is nothing more delectably consumable than the appearance or reality; of a concept that Jacques Derrida, in his usual act of showmanship, made famous in the term "différance" (Jacques Derrida, Différance Alan Bass (trans), in Margins of Philosophy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982), pp 3-27)), and what semiotics now perhaps better understands in the shadow of tech, that Jan Broekman and I call the "flow" or the "signal" within which input exists (here).

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Indeed, there is something to this--the revolution of the second and third decades of the 21st century require pathways. And on the Republican side at least two now are clearly visible--each with its own camp of supporters. The approaches of the likely contenders for the next Republican Party Presidential nomination certainly provides at least a useful public facing comparison of style and emphasis. It is not just the usual good cop/bad cop ploy; nor for that matter about the sort of nag one prefers (though here I am reminded of President Obama's Ghana speech as a reminder that Americans have a longish and a political history of nagging, see Democracy Part XVI: Empathy and Hubris: America in Africa 2009) that tends to amuse onlookers and their amplifiers in the press, academia and influencers (is there a difference sometimes other than in delivery?). This may be, after all, the preferred  level of discursive comedy which they are capable of perceiving (but on the powerlessness in nagging see here). It is the incarnation of the choice for "post-revolutionary" Americans respecting the path forward. If they have an appetite for French, Russian, and Chinese style rectification/Terror/ purging campaigns, then door number 1; otherwise door number 2. But that is a story for next year.

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Perhaps more importantly, Secretary Rubio's remarks are at their best as he tries to explain America First as a function of the rebooting of the meaning of the post 1945 order--and to that end, the understanding of revolutionary world remaking itself on the brink of the defeat of the Axis powers, the explosion of vibrant anti-colonialist and anti-imperialist movements targeting the structures of European expansion (but oddly not Russian or other "middle powers" empires) after the loss of their first colonial empires before the start of the Napoleonic period, and the re-invention of government and governance.  That is, after all, what is at play--the meaning and practice of the revolution of 1945 as recast in 1963, and the place within that of the accretions that came after. Secretary Rubio reaches back to 1963; others might reach back to 1945. And it is from this cognitive starting point that political collectives must decide (1) how to identify important data at the moment of snapshot; (2) how to vest these with significance; and (3) how to build a cognitive cage around those data and that signification that can then be articulated, safeguarded, protected. . . or projected elsewhere and mostly forward in time. 

It is to a more considered understanding of those remarks that is the focus of the remainder of this essay. It is divided into seven parts: (1) temporal starting points; (2) the foundational binary; (3) the betrayal; (4) the price of folly in a city of fools; (5) America First and the great reboot; (6) pitching revolution; (7) the rebooted world order; (8) putting the State back in the state system; and (9) its all about self-actualization

1.  Temporal Starting Points. Secretary Rubio emphasizes starting points throughput the address. And, indeed, if one read the remarks carefully, it becomes clear that analytically, starting points are not historical markers but markers that frame structure, values, goals. He could have chosen 1945, the starting date of the new global ordering led by the Americans at the vanguard of leading States victorious in war against (1) the extra-moral forces of an amoral ethno-racial-religious managerial eugenics and human value hierarchy and (2) unconstrained militarism as the principal language of international relations. Their task was to reboot a global order, the manifestations of which emerged in the decade or so following, at least as to form and values. 

But the Secretary did not. One cannot get in his head, of course, but it is plausible to consider that context dictated a starting point connected to the origins and context of the Munich Security Conference. And so the Secretary's speech is framed around 1963 as a starting point. 1963 was a momentous year in some respects. It started in the shadow of the so called Cuban Missile crisis of October 1962. The American adventure in Vietnam intensified, intensified by the assassination of Ngo Dinh Diem, as did its sanctions regimes against the revolutionary government in Cuba. George Wallace was inaugurated as Alabama's governor promising segregation forever, the federal government sent troops in to enforce desegregation, while the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King wrote his letter from the Birmingham Jail and the march on Washington where his "I Have a Dream Remarks" were delivered, and the Civil Rights Act was enacted. France and Germany continued a process of alignment, while France vetoed  the UK's admission into what was to become the EU. Patsy Kine is killed in a plane cash and Beatlemania starts with the release of their new album. John XXIII dies and with the event the shaping of Vatican II, and the US and Soviets established the now famous "hotline" and sign a Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Computer programming language standardization draws institutional attention and the synthesizer received its first public demonstration.  President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Texas, as was the person who was facing charges in that murder. There was more of note as well. 

That is a lot of data and a reminder of the complexities of contextualization and essentialization multiple data streams parallel, intermeshing, and multi-directional. But data can be "activated" by acquiring signification (or being vested with it--that is what people chose to consider as the data "set" from out of which analysis is to be undertaken). And with that signification one can develop a framework for rationalizing the world as a function of an issue, objective, or state of being that is central to an analysis.

All of these events o doubt started out in the mix that was 1963. But its essence, for Secretary Rubio, was shaped by a view of the context in which 1963 presented itself as the relationship between Europe and the U.S. The parsing and data selection, then, might be thought more direct, and perhaps brutal--that by 1963 it was apparent that there was unfinished business from what had started in the 1930s. Having defeated the forces of the radical and immoral political right--it was by then clear that that those efforts would have to be redirected toward achieving the same ends against the radical left. But now those efforts would be constrained by the normative architecture of human rights and the anti-militarism that served as the core templates of the post-1945 order. That, for Secretary Rubio is both the temporal starting point, and  the touchstone for the essence of world ordering that he now seeks to apply in the resent, but with contemporary characteristics. The spirit of 1963 is invoked to move forward the project that is America First: "It will restore to us a clearer sense of ourselves.  It will restore a place in the world, and in so doing, it will rebuke and deter the forces of civilizational erasure that today menace both America and Europe alike." (Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference). That, at any rate, appears to be the plan. 

2. The Foundational Binary. Leibnitz reminded us centuries ago that binary code may be a useful way of reducing complexity to its simplest forms. Cognition and its representation might be usefully organized as binaries--zeros and ones, black and while, Western democracies and Soviet Marxist Leninist totalitarianism.  Secretary Rubio organizes the world of 1963 along what for the post-1945 world was its principal binary, or in the language of Marxist Leninism, as its general contradiction and the essence of its dialectics: 

When this conference began in 1963, it was in a nation – actually, it was on a continent – that was divided against itself. The line between communism and freedom ran through the heart of Germany. The first barbed fences of the Berlin Wall had gone up just two years prior. And just months before that first conference, before our predecessors first met here, here in Munich, the Cuban Missile Crisis had brought the world to the brink of nuclear destruction. Even as World War II still burned fresh in the memory of Americans and Europeans alike, we found ourselves staring down the barrel of a new global catastrophe – one with the potential for a new kind of destruction, more apocalyptic and final than anything before in the history of mankind. (Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference)

Thus, it seems, 1945 might have provided the setting for the rebooting of the global order in the wake of victory against great manifestations of two distinctive forms of internal and external state organization, conduct, and with that, their value systems. Yet all that did was clear away the debris from the great underlying contradiction on the basis of which the old world order was engaged in sometimes violent "dialectic" and oftentimes engagement at odds with the values either side purported to advance. It solved the problem of the 19th century well into the 20th; but it now made it possible to see that this was only half the equation--ridding the planet of 19th century apex state values made confronting its 20th century incarnation unavoidable. And that moves the dial from 1945 to 1963. Or to put it in the language of Deng Xiaoping (On Opposing Wrong Ideological Tendencies (1981))--while  the 2nd World War effectively  rectified "right error", it left a potentially equally disturbing "left error" not just infect but able to corrupt the center in the absence of its old countervailing force. 

This dialectic then, served as the basis for continued alliance.  Gratitude, as many know, is a great burden, and tends to build resentment almost as much as it builds positive connection. And in 1963, certainly for critical elements of the elites, one might surmise, the world and world ordering of 1863 might have been far closer to their sensibilities intellectually than was that of 1917 or 1945, much less 1963. Threat, on the other hand, especially fresh off of the disasters of 1914-1945, can be a great motivator. It is here that the fundamental binary takes on its normative character.  

At the time of that first gathering, Soviet communism was on the march. Thousands of years of Western civilization hung in the balance. At that time, victory was far from certain. But we were driven by a common purpose. We were unified not just by what we were fighting against; we were unified by what we were fighting for. And together, Europe and America prevailed and a continent was rebuilt. Our people prospered. In time, the East and West blocs were reunited. A civilization was once again made whole.(Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference)

And there it is, nicely packaged. For Secretary Rubio 1963 is decisive because it marked not the transformation of the global rebooting conceived in 1945. Rather it was decisive because it marked the first, and fundamental, shift in the conflict binary, the resolution of which produced the mid-20th century international framework. That shift moved the center of conflict from its 19th century moorings , from the defeated 19th century visions of internal and external imperium, in the form of the German Reich and the Japanese Empire, to an equally critical binary oppositional conflict  with 20th century moorings between the liberal democratic West and its allies and the Soviet world order. What was a stake was the normative (human rights centered) and anti-militarist foundations of the post-1945 international ordering. Where those structures in 1945 were directed at defeating what came to be called the fascist right, after 1963 it became clear that the fight continued, this time against the totalitarian left. Standing between them was allied states bound by a roughly unified sense of the meaning and values of the post-1945 order, now deployed against what in the 21st century would be called the radical left, but which in the 20th century would be incarnated with and into the Soviet Empire.  

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3. The betrayal.  For Secretary Rubio, then, 1963 serves as an excellent point for the distillation of the great project of the spirit of 1945, and its post-1945 reboot, the normative and structural expectations of which remained substantially uncontested as they shifted from a conflict against the 19th century radical right and refocused on the 20th century radical left. That was a process effectively completed by 1963, and evidenced by the structures of binary relations between the Soviet and Liberal democratic camps. This produced the stable state necessary to focus on the fulfillment of the promise of the normative systems that the post-1945 ordering put in place and the refinement of the promise of de-centering militarism as the first reflex of international relations.  

But what happens after the great dialectic is resolved? What happens when Soviet totalitarian "left" error is defeated, at least in its 20th century forms? Secretary Rubio offers a distillation in the form of betrayal:

But the euphoria of this triumph led us to a dangerous delusion: that we had entered, quote, “the end of history;” that every nation would now be a liberal democracy; that the ties formed by trade and by commerce alone would now replace nationhood; that the rules-based global order – an overused term – would now replace the national interest; and that we would now live in a world without borders where everyone became a citizen of the world. (Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference)

Secretary Rubio contextualizes the betrayal within the psychology of delusion; perhaps arrogance and disconnection might also have worked in context, but both would have been less polite; Secretary Rubio prefers the suggestion of naivete.  And indeed, betrayal might be better understood not as delusion but as efforts at mitigation by those elements within the western liberal democracies that had been, since the 1920s, sympathetic to the other side of the binary and now appeared to have been working not on the resolution of the binary but in its convergence. In effect, what Secretary Rubio suggests as the fundamental delusion was the idea that with the defeat of radical right error in 1945 and of radical left error (in Europe) in 1989ish, the only thing left for the victors to do was to disappear into the world they made possible. From the perspective of those globalists, the "betrayal" was on the other foot as they watched their belief and operational orthodoxy shattered visibly after 2015 in both Asia and the U.S., a perspective nicely developed in the Davos Remarks of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. For Secretary Rubio, on the other hand, it was the very mind set that the Canadian Prime Minister defended that was itself the fundamental betrayal of the spirit of 1945 and of 1963. 

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4. The price of folly in a city of fools. Sectary Rubio moves from the delusion of a set of assumptions that set the cognitive baseline of great states and their international institutional instrumentalities, (the post 1989 world (re)reordering) along with the interlocking public and private bureaucracies constituted to a consideration of the realization of the expectations of delusion, to the assessment of its project: foolishness. "This was a foolish idea that . . .  has cost us dearly." (Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference). The era of liberal democratic vanguard foolishness, is a function of dogmatic blindness, of the rejection of responsibility for undertaking the duties of democratic power, and a sense that the only way forward was by creating circumstances in which the state would itself would whither away.  It is divided by Secretary Rubio, into three categories.

The first touches on what the Secretary describes as a detached and rigid ideology of trade.  

In this delusion, we embraced a dogmatic vision of free and unfettered trade, even as some nations protected their economies and subsidized their companies to systematically undercut ours – shuttering our plants, resulting in large parts of our societies being deindustrialized, shipping millions of working and middle-class jobs overseas, and handing control of our critical supply chains to both adversaries and rivals.(Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference).

While at first blush this appears to be a reprise of variations of the Global South's New International Economic order, it lacks the ideological rigidity of that now ancient effort.  The issue, for the Secretary, is the protection of efficiency capacity and the protection of markets.  

The second touches on the system of public international institutions. It is not just the system of public international institutions that appears to be the target, but the emergence of a global internationally centered web of public and private techno-bureaucratic functionaries with what of the Secretary might be4 understood as a slim and indirect connection to the structures of democratic accountability (though in fairness democratic accountability of their own administrative apparatus remains a bit of a work in progress).   

We increasingly outsourced our sovereignty to international institutions while many nations invested in massive welfare states at the cost of maintaining the ability to defend themselves. This, even as other countries have invested in the most rapid military buildup in all of human history and have not hesitated to use hard power to pursue their own interests. (Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference).

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The terminology is interesting, and while odd to the ears of those heavily invested in the world view Secretary Rubio critiques--one which might have been understood as the triumphantly orthodox vision post 1989--the terminology now serves as the critical language of America First.  Not that sovereignty, at least among Americans, had entirely disappeared. But it was balanced by a convergence imperative, one that might b understood as trading the indicia of sovereignty for forward movement in convergence through delegation of authority to international institutions operating under international legal regimes that now could be understood as special even within domestic legal orders.  The Secretary also noted not just the delegation of sovereign authority, but perhaps more importantly, the hijacking of politics from the domestic sphere with people at the center, to the institutional sphere, with officials representing entities at the center. This last produces a self defeating effect: "To appease a climate cult, we have imposed energy policies on ourselves that are impoverishing our people, even as our competitors exploit oil and coal and natural gas and anything else – not just to power their economies, but to use as leverage against our own." (Ibid.).

The third touches on migration. If trade policy hollowed out states, and if the project of constructing a system of international organizations transposed sovereignty from state to international actors, then migration, if undertaken fully and properly, would sweep away the state itself. That, anyway, is the view: "And in a pursuit of a world without borders, we opened our doors to an unprecedented wave of mass migration that threatens the cohesion of our societies, the continuity of our culture, and the future of our people."  (Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference). 

These three then shape not only the Munich remarks of the Secretary but provide a nice summary of the three core values of America First:  the rejection of the idea of trade as another form of politics, the rejection of supra national governance institutions, and the rejection of open borders. These "three rejections" then have a positive side--the three modernizations: efficient re-industrialization; inter-governmentality as the basic structure of international governance; and robust national control of migration.  

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5. America First and the great reboot.  Having distilled the essence of the fool and the foolishness of that asylum that was the global ordering after 1989 slowly chocking on its own contradictions enough that even the subalterns began to see in the project an easier target, Secretary Rubio offers the America First alternative. In the process Secretary Rubio distills the essence of America First: trade (efficient re-industrialization); sovereignty (returning to inter-governmental at the international level); and migration (political solidarity of states). "Under President Trump, the United States of America will once again take on the task of renewal and restoration, driven by a vision of a future as proud, as sovereign, and as vital as our civilization’s past."  This is a project that the United States is willing to undertake alone, but would prefer the company of like minded peers. "And while we are prepared, if necessary, to do this alone, it is our preference and it is our hope to do this together with you, our friends here in Europe. "

6. Pitching Revolution. If, indeed, the U.S. is to undertake this re-framing, in the company of its sovereign peers, then it needs to pitch them. That is, the United States must suggest why it may make sense for a Europe that had  invested heavily in the post-1989 framework and is deeply and ideologically committed to a much deeper techno-bureaucratic institutional ordering of politics, may find it more in its interests to scrape away at least enough of the barnacles of post-1989 internationalism to make partnership satisfying, viability, and positive (however one s inclined to measure that).  

To that end, Secretary Rubio starts with an argument grounded in socio-cultural solidarity.

For the United States and Europe, we belong together. America was founded 250 years ago, but the roots began here on this continent long before. The man who settled and built the nation of my birth arrived on our shores carrying the memories and the traditions and the Christian faith of their ancestors as a sacred inheritance, an unbreakable link between the old world and the new. We are part of one civilization – Western civilization. (Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference). 

What is interesting here is the alignment of faith and civilization.  At a time when that view has been fractured and reconstructed in an infinitely varied way by politicians, ideologues, social scientists, religious divines, and others, Secretary Rubio pulls on an ancient trope, and in this way picking up a thread of argument that had been advanced, with decreasing success by John Paul II (Ecclesia in Europa 2003, ¶ 120).

Secretary Rubio then makes the argument from shared history, and with it blood sacrifice for mostly common ends. "We are bound to one another by the deepest bonds that nations could share, forged by centuries of shared history, Christian faith, culture, heritage, language, ancestry, and the sacrifices our forefathers made together for the common civilization to which we have fallen heir." (Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference). This is wrapped in as close to a self reflection of the political psychology that separates the Americans from their European cousins. 

And so this is why we Americans may sometimes come off as a little direct and urgent in our counsel. This is why President Trump demands seriousness and reciprocity from our friends here in Europe. The reason why, my friends, is because we care deeply. We care deeply about your future and ours. And if at times we disagree, our disagreements come from our profound sense of concern about a Europe with which we are connected – not just economically, not just militarily. We are connected spiritually and we are connected culturally.  (Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference).

And he offers the consolation of family, of peoples who may quarrel but cannot become estranged.  "We have fought against each other, then reconciled, then fought, then reconciled again. And we have bled and died side by side on battlefields from Kapyong to Kandahar." (Ibid.) But he offers no apologies; context makes that impossible from his way of thinking. But beyond that it is meant as a challenge to generations of culture makers and intelligentsia that have, from his pint of view,  made it their business to bring something up by tearing other things down. It is not critique that annoys the Secretary is is the cognitive cages within which critique is undertaken. 

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7. The rebooted world order is, at its core a national security order.  Where does all that inspirational and analytics language lead? It leads Secretary Rubio to the nub of the problem--the emerging alignment and perhaps fusion, of national security with the core issues that serve as the heart of the Secretary's critique of the international ancien regime--de-industrialization, sovereignty transfers, and open migration. National security cannot be reduced to technical questions that are quarantined off from the core elements of social organization. 

The fundamental question we must answer at the outset is what exactly are we defending, because armies do not fight for abstractions. Armies fight for a people; armies fight for a nation. Armies fight for a way of life. And that is what we are defending: a great civilization that has every reason to be proud of its history, confident of its future, and aims to always be the master of its own economic and political destiny. (Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference).

And then the connection to trade (de-industrialization)  and migration.  None of these policies were inevitable--except perhaps as inevitable from the premises and goals embraced by elites after the 1980s. And that returns the Secretary to the theme of the fool.  De-industrialization was a long term foolish choice. "It was a foolish but voluntary transformation of our economy that left us dependent on others for our needs and dangerously vulnerable to crisis." (Ibid.).  Of course some might think that what was foolish was the unwillingness of those who embraced this orthodoxy to ruthlessly undertake all measures necessary to attain their goals. Secretary Rubio then seeks to recenter migration--not around individuals but about the internal stability of states.  "Controlling who and how many people enter our countries, this is not an expression of xenophobia. It is not hate. It is a fundamental act of national sovereignty. And the failure to do so is not just an abdication of one of our most basic duties owed to our people. It is an urgent threat to the fabric of our societies and the survival of our civilization itself." (Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference).

At its root, of course, are the ordering premises through which the world can be rationalized, values constructed and actions judged against them. There is a lot to chew there:

An alliance ready to defend our people, to safeguard our interests, and to preserve the freedom of action that allows us to shape our own destiny – not one that exists to operate a global welfare state and atone for the purported sins of past generations. An alliance that does not allow its power to be outsourced, constrained, or subordinated to systems beyond its control; one that does not depend on others for the critical necessities of its national life; and one that does not maintain the polite pretense that our way of life is just one among many and that asks for permission before it acts. And above all, an alliance based on the recognition that we, the West, have inherited together – what we have inherited together is something that is unique and distinctive and irreplaceable, because this, after all, is the very foundation of the transatlantic bond.(Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference).

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8. Putting the State back in the State system. The Secretary suggested what a rebooted international ordering might look like. The object of challenge is the international techno-bureaucracy. Left alone are the uses of these communal fora for state to state discussions.  

And finally, we can no longer place the so-called global order above the vital interests of our people and our nations. We do not need to abandon the system of international cooperation we authored, and we don’t need to dismantle the global institutions of the old order that together we built. But these must be reformed. These must be rebuilt.(Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference).

Secretary of State Rubio then offers the evidence--all well known: Gaza, Ukraine, Iranian (and North Korean for that matter) nuclear ambitions.  Also proffered was the effective indifference f the international institutional apparatus to critical non-state actors--for the Americans now most pressing the Hemispheric  narco trafficking enterprises.  And behind all of this is a barely concealed indictment of international law and lawyering, one that, to the Secretary appears to take pride in its self suffocation  on its own internal affectations, histories, practices and conceits; "we cannot continue to allow those who blatantly and openly threaten our citizens and endanger our global stability to shield themselves behind abstractions of international law which they themselves routinely violate."  (Ibid.). International lawyers would strongly object of course. 

Secretary Rubio then ends with a full throated defense, a robust panegyric of, the West. That might, at first blush, be understood as directed to outsiders. Perhaps it makes more sense when understood as internal critique. One might then reasonably consider that this defense, this praise statement, was directed as a challenge and warning to the elites, so comfortably ensconced within the systems of privilege and control within the post-1980s order, that, as far as the Secretary was concerned, and with him the President, their time was, if not up, then facing what Secretary Rubio would hope to be a fatal challenge.  

Secretary Rubio looks at the spectrum of criticism of America First and sees something quite different: weakness is a choice; self-denial is a choice, suicide is a choice, dissipation is a choice; decline is a choice.

And this is why we do not want our allies to be weak, because that makes us weaker. We want allies who can defend themselves so that no adversary will ever be tempted to test our collective strength. This is why we do not want our allies to be shackled by guilt and shame. We want allies who are proud of their culture and of their heritage, who understand that we are heirs to the same great and noble civilization, and who, together with us, are willing and able to defend it.(Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference).

And what Secretary Rubio sees, specifically, when he encounters those who dismiss  him and  America First is this--an intense disdain for managed decline. 

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9. It's all about self-actualization. Where does all of this lead states? Well, for Secretary of State Rubio, perhaps it leads to national self-actualization, We have reached the point where  the notion of self-actualization, once considered the domain of the individual, now moves into the domain of the collective, and more specifically the State. "Acting together in this way, we will not just help recover a sane foreign policy. It will restore to us a clearer sense of ourselves. It will restore a place in the world, and in so doing, it will rebuke and deter the forces of civilizational erasure that today menace both America and Europe alike." (Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference). That includes, not necessarily a defense, but an acknowledgement of the actualities of history--from expansion, to conquest, to revolution, to settlement, to displacement. Not candy coated, certainly, it is too late in the day for that, but clear eyed and honest. One celebrates advances and confronts and learns from mistakes; one does not use mistakes as the sort of indictment, which has become fashionable, of the cognitive bases of the social and political order, and on that basis seek to sweep it aside or perhaps, overwhelm it through the early 21st century project of de-industrialization, sovereign displacement by techno-bureaucratic internal institutions, and the withering the state in the constancy of migration. That is what Secretary Rubio appears to believe, and that is what he appears to state. 

And that is how Secretary Rubio ends his remarks: "We should be proud of what we achieved together in the last century, but now we must confront and embrace the opportunities of a new one – because yesterday is over, the future is inevitable, and our destiny together awaits."  (Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference). It is all about the self-actualization of states--functioning optimally in one's environment to fulfill one's potential, "to become more and more of what one is"! (here)

*       *       * 

For those who came of age during the Presidencies of Messrs. Bush (Sr), Clinton, Bush (Jr), Obama, and to some extent Biden, Secretary Rubio offers nothing but disdain and rebuke. There is little here that could possibly resonate with the generation that came of age under the tutelage of an intelligentsia, and their progeny larded into the highest levels of public and private power, whose orienting premises, world views, values and objectives were trashed by Secretary Rubio. Not just trashed but characterized as a fundamental betrayal that requires substantial rectification. That rectification might be structural, but also personal. One might think the temptation to engage and criticize would be difficult to overcome. But that sort of critique is unlikely to happen--other than to dismiss the entire enterprise as unworthy of serious engagement. To criticize Secretary Rubio's assertions might be viewed as acknowledging that they are weighty enough to merit criticism. The harshest punishment is to trivialize them (eg Secretary Rubio was nice to the Europeans and made them happy; we can work around that), or to pretend they were just never uttered. Still, one has at last a much clearer picture of America's new era ideology, a long step forward from the relative incoherence of the first Trump Presidency on that score. More fundamentally, of course, it is difficult to critique in the absence of a common language. The two camps each rejects the formative premises of the other; without a common conceptual base, what is there to argue about?

But talk is cheaper and transactional approaches tend to value them less than action.  We will see what comes of all of this. 

The full text of Sectary Rubio's remarks follows. 

 

 

 

Monday, February 16, 2026

And Speaking of Proscription Lists: Cheryl Yu--Harnessing the People: Mapping Overseas United Front Work in Democratic State.

 

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In a recent post I considered the role of proscription lists in the patterns of proscription-terror/rectification/purges-and revolution that has a long history in the centers of two great empires. The focus of the last one was the list of people identified in the multimillionaire document dump that is the so-called Epstein files, from out of which emerged a "definitive list of 305 high-profile individuals, including celebrities and politicians, have been published by the Department of Justice as part of Bondi's required update sent to Congress on February 14." (here) See discussion here: Proscription Lists, the Sovereignty of Terror, and Revolutionary Pathways Forward in the Digitalized Age--A Thought Experiment. The point was no to hand wring or harangue but to consider, at a more detached level of abstraction the changes if any that tech has produced in the traditional cycles of proscription lists, revolutionary trajectories and the  almost regular connection to "terror"--usually one that consumes its creators as well as its victims, who are swpt up in lists which serve as trigger and judgment. Proscription lists are common  enough, and ancient enough, but their critical semiosis is as the harbinger of more profound changes that sweeps away not just systems and vales but also people. 

It is unlikely that the "Epstein list" will be the last of this current cycle of change. And it is even less likely that the putting together of lists for purging or rectifying individuals who also serve as the semiotic incarnation of their office and as the body on whom punishment is meant to serve as a substitute for the punishment of the institutions the corruption of stress in which may have served as catalyst (eg here, with a rare for the West reference to Yan'an).  

Now comes this new list, one that might also serve as a proscription list of sorts; though it first blush it is meant to serve as the evidence necessary for rectification. Cheryl Yu has just published for Jamestown Foundation's China Brief, a report:   Harnessing the People: Mapping Overseas United Front Work in Democratic State.

 



The Executive Summary, the text of which follows below organizes the finding into seven key points: (1) The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has created a global network of individuals and organizations as part of its united front system; (2) Beijing’s network is the product of protracted co-optation of existing civil society organizations overseas and the global expansion of domestic united front elements; (3) The Party leverages this global network to support its primary goal of national rejuvenation; (4) This includes engaging in malign and illegal activities in foreign countries; (5) In democratic countries, these groups influence political decision-making by conditioning stakeholders to consider Beijing’s interests and sensitivities; (6) Where the CCP encounters opposition, the united front functions as a political weapon to isolate, neutralize, or counter Beijing’s critics; and (7) Constraining the CCP’s ability to interfere in democracies requires active transparency. 

Of course, United Front work has long been an element of Marxist Leninist systems going back to Soviet days. Technology and migration has enhanced its possibilities, and the turn, perhaps revolutionary, of  States to treat issues of patriots and enemies, of state secrets and interference with internal affairs, in ways that now takes a mechanisms that had been worth managing to one the actors of which, now labeled (and the label applied with equal vigor in the US and China) as agitators in the pay or thrall of a foreign power, may be not just exposed but proscribed. And there is no mechanism That is the point) for treating these proscription lists  to fact finding or other process protective mechanisms that impede quite and emotive judgment--and thus the shift from proscription to terror/purge/rectification.  

The introduction and historical background are useful reading for people unfamiliar with the context as is the chart on page 14 describing the evolution of United Front work objectives. But of course, what people demand is the list. And a listing is provided starting on page 18 (labelled "Data"). They are categorized "into eight broad types based on their function and target membership. These eight include identity-based organizations, cultural promotion centers and friendship organizations, business and trade promotion
organizations, educational organizations, student organizations, professional organizations, political groups, and media organizations." (Report, p. 18).

Sunday, February 15, 2026

Proscription Lists, the Sovereignty of Terror, and Revolutionary Pathways Forward in the Digitalized Age--A Thought Experiment

 

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A thought experiment:  

Modernity has bequeathed its progeny a recipe for proper revolution. No revolution properly so called can merit the name without an equally proper terror--whether so-called (in France in 1794) or rectification (in 1940s China and thereafter) or purges (in a Soviet system that became more Stalinist than properly Soviet). And so on. No Terror, however denominated--can be properly organized without its proscription lists. And no proscription list, properly so called, may fulfill its purpose without consuming some or all of its authors or executors or overseers. 

Proscription set the standard for orderliness in revolutionary regimes and can be most famously traced traced back to the regime of Sulla during the last unstable period of the Roman Republic. It reminds one, a little, of the way that the proscription list emerged in the later Roman Republic during the leadership of Sulla:

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Sulla now began to make blood flow, and he filled the city with deaths without number or limit; many persons were murdered on grounds of private enmity, who had never had anything to do with Sulla, but he consented to their death to please his adherents. At last a young man, Caius Metellus, had the boldness to ask Sulla in the Senate-house, when there would be an end to these miseries, and how far he would proceed before they could hope to see them stop. "We are not deprecating," he said, "your vengeance against those whom you have determined to put out of the way, but we entreat you to relieve from uncertainty those whom you have determined to spare." Sulla replied, that he had not yet determined whom he would spare. "Tell us then," said Metellus, "whom you intend to punish." Sulla said that he would. (Plutarch, Life of Sulla, ¶ 31).

That is the beauty of the proscription list as a semiotic construct. It is at once at object--the list itself. Tjhat list acquires a meaning and power that is autonomous of the material or information in the list. It is a power to detaches the list itself from its bona fides. Those no longer matter--not process. not connection, not relevance--just the list. It is the list that is the "thing" in both its strict and colloquial senses.  Who is included on the list for punishment, rectification, purging, or execution as a traitor or threat to the revolution. That is what is important--a point at the heart of the construction of Sulla's list, and thereafter of the proscriptions that came at the end of the Republic. It is in that sense that the proscription list is not just object but signification--it is the instrument, the manner, in which those who are to be punished, who are claimed to be associated--with a thing meriting punishment, that is important. One is on the list or not. One was associated, even in the most innocent ways, with the triggering individual  as a function  of association with which the list is prepared. The list signifies.  And the last, the proscription list's semiotic "thirdness"--its interpretive and consequential power within the community that gives it meaning, and by giving it meaning invests it with power. To be on the list may signify a connection with the person or event or condition that is now a matter of opprobrium. That is, in itself only a framing or identifying, a percieving, function. Cognition, comes after, and cognition is an expression of shared understanding of the meaning, the "value" of the list and of being placed on it. The power of this  consequential interpretation is well known. It is not for nothing that one places people arrested for soliciting prostitutes on a list published to the local news paper--for an ancient example; naming and shaming is the essence of semiotic thirdness and suggests that signification is merely the precursor to the most important element of cognition--judgment. 

Now the connection is clear. It is a small step from the proscription list to terror. Its etymology makes that clear: "terrour, "something that intimidates (as punishment), an object of fear, intimidation," from Old French terreur, terrour, terrer (14c.), and directly from Latin terrorem (nominative terror) "great fear, dread, alarm, panic; object of fear, cause of alarm." The connection between proscription ans terror is indeed intimate--the two elements necessary for its effective deployment. 

In its Emlightenment forms, terror is exceeding French, and in contrast to the practical Romans, who focused on systems and system efficiency, in its French form much more larded with ideological presumptions that argued compulsion and inevitability all the while avoiding the fundamental moral questions, though it insisted on calling itself a most enlightened product of the marriage of the moral and the political (as that later term could be understood  at the time of the beheading of the ancien regime: Maximilian Robespierre, Rapport sur les principes de morale politique dans l'administration intérieure de la République [On the Moral and Political Principles of Domestic Policy]--Text and Reflections on Modernity. Its modern manifestations learned their lessons well from these and in the 20tjh century one tended to see a sort of marriage between ideology, mortality, and implementation all bound up in the process of rectification and purging, sometimes with extraordinarily brutal effects that could not otherwise be ignored altogether (see eg Pol Pot and the campaigns against enemies of the revolution).

The current phase of our liberal democratic revolution, noticeable after 2020, has already seen its traditional forms of proscriptions. Some were largely unsuccessful (see, e.g., here and here, though not for lack of trying, e.g., here). Some are ongoing when the unsuccessful target of proscription turned the tables. See, e.g.,  The Proscription List Grows: President Trump Issues Directive--"Addressing Risks From WilmerHale Presidential Actions, Executive Orders" (March 27, 2025), also here

But all of that presupposes the triumph of the age of humanity. Technology now adds a layer of difference that reshapes the older patterns of revolut6ion-terror-prosciption. What happens, however, when one de-centers the human and moves to the digital age?  Perhaps nothing provides a more sobering lesson than the slow strangling progress that is the revelations that are the Epstein files. Today the Daily Mail posted a quite interesting proscription list in the form of an article: Full list of hundreds of celebrities and politicians in Pam Bondi's Epstein files letter.

All of the Epstein files have been released, according to Attorney General Pam Bondi. Millions of emails, photos, and documents relating to the harrowing case against predator Jeffrey Epstein have been made publicly available, Bondi said. A definitive list of 305 high-profile individuals, including celebrities and politicians, have been published by the Department of Justice as part of Bondi's required update sent to Congress on February 14.

 It moves proscription, and Terror, from the political, to the socio/cultural, and from the visible structures of power to those structures that appear to have undermined them. In that context, truth and justification leave the stage--the essence of proscription under conditions of Terror require certainty (a list--or accusation)--but nothing else. Still a fig leaf is always useful:

Being named in the Epstein files does not assume any guilt or wrongdoing to Epstein's heinous child sex crimes. While many of the names on the new list have long been associated with Epstein, including Ghislaine Maxwell and Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, this is the first time a definitive long list has been shared by Bondi and the administration.  It includes singers, actors, businessmen and entrepreneurs, dead and alive, who were mentioned in the files at least once.(Full list of hundreds of celebrities and politicians in Pam Bondi's Epstein files letter.)

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That is what makes proscription terrifying--its supra-morality and embrace of indiscriminate sacrifice in the name of something "higher" or more relevant to those who. for the moment, control the guillotine that may, in time, come for them. Its purpose is not justice, fine granularity attuned to the individual; its purpose is elimination--the elimination of those structures of power and the bodies that were its placeholders to be replaced by another waiting in the wings. Not better necessarily, though it will be sold that way, but different. In that sense the 20th century terms ring truer, purging, rectification. 

And in the age of digitized knowledge; in this age of democratic transparency and mass sentiment; in this age of dialectic markets for every commodity imaginable; in this age of images and virtual realities. In this age of the signal and the flow--of idea, meaning, emotion--and in this age of the morality of representation, and the representation that are images and imagining, then in that age the Epstein sage represents a new and global first rectification, first purge and first taste of what a digitized terror may well take form. The Epstein saga, the explosion of the disclosures of that demimonde of power and power relations sealed with sacrifice and undertaken above the structured expectations of order from which or against which it was possible to operate, a demimonde that might perhaps suggest that the cognitive cages of our realities were actually inverted, might suggest the way that 21st century revolution, terror and proscription will work--though not its ending. 

In Bondi's letter on Saturday, she explained that all of the files relating to the law have been released, which have been categorized into nine different sections.The categories spelled out by the Justice Department are: Jeffrey Epstein, Ghislaine Maxwell, flight logs or travel records, individuals named in connection with Epstein's criminal activities, details on corporate, nonprofit, academic or governmental entities with ties to Epstein, immunity deals involving Epstein and his associates, internal DOJ communications, all communications relating to the destruction of evidence relating to Epstein, and finally, documentation of Epstein's detention and death. Bondi then explained what has been withheld during the Epstein files release. The letter stated: 'The only category of records withheld were those records where permitted withholdings under Section 2(c) and privileged materials were not segregable from material responsive under Section 2(a).Full list of hundreds of celebrities and politicians in Pam Bondi's Epstein files letter.)

But of course, the problem with the best planned revolution, with the most well managed terror, with the most usefully crafted proscription list is that  once put into play control may be illusory, the process may consume its authors, and the end product may be entirely unexpected. Yet modern trajectories of these pathways have tended to lack their Danton.

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 Perhaps the Epstein saga is yet another blip--a momentary revelation of the intertwining of human relations in a complex world--all will be forgiven and perhaps forgotten; officially. Yet this can go in quite  another way. And there is nothing like scandal to produce the sort of opportunity that can topple governance orders. 

Where does that leave one?; well perhaps more deeply embedded in the thought experiment that was the object of these reflections. yes; but then all the thought experiment built around the iterative mimetic of lists purges terror revolution. Consider the human element as data produced despite itself (Nietzsche’s notion of contextual or rat maze decision making clothed in the niceties of apparent free will, the last of Nietzsche's "Four Great Errors in his «Götzen-Dämmerung oder Wie man mit dem Hammer philosophiert»). That data over millennia then suggests both that the runs are robust but that its performance is a function of tech tied to the post facto performative of theory; or reverse that ideology has permitted the pathways of lists purges terror and revolution to become self coding. That is a further step toward the delegation of that prices from humans to the simulacra they build with tech. And all the while the baseline semiotics is motionless! And it embraces the semiotics of the proscription list as object--that is the thrill of the Epstein disclosure; as signification--from naughty, to confused, to really (criminally) naughty, to the undertakings of a ship of fools; and lastly as judgment of the systemic state of governance and the trustworthiness of officials.  but all now requiring explanation before mob whose work was done when they read the proscription list and thus prepared themselves for revolutionary terror. 

Now the collective is really philosophizing with a hammer!

Pix first posted with credit here

 

 

Thursday, February 12, 2026

El triunfo de lo transaccional y el problema de la racionalización de la Tierra Firme Española del Caribe en la epoca contemporanea: EE. UU. y México regatean sobre el futuro de Cuba

Crédito de imagen aquí

ENGLISH LANGUAGE VERSION HERE

¿Cómo se puede reiniciar los tropos discursivos tradicionales de la soberanía y el sistema estatal, profundamente arraigados en la cultura de los Estados y conmemorados inicialmente en la Convención de Montevideo de 1933, y basados ​​en la protección de los asuntos internos de los Estados por otros, la igualdad soberana, la integridad territorial y la autodeterminación? ¿Cómo se puede emprender este tipo de reinicio en un contexto en el que los tropos discursivos de la soberanía se han disipado por la globalización: todos, las empresas multinacionales (económicas y sociales, Apple Inc. y Amnistía Internacional), tal vez ahora tengan distintos "derechos" a la autodeterminación, si no al territorio? ¿Cómo se puede hacer ese reinicio cuando esos viejos tropos discursivos pueden ahora ser desplazados de manera decisiva por el discurso de la transformación de las premisas ordenadoras de lo global, de una que prioriza las instituciones, la gestión y el orden burocrático dentro de sistemas jerárquicamente organizados a una que se inserta en un ethos de discurso transaccional y los valores que ese discurso representa?


Crédito de imagin aquí
Esas son, sin duda, una pregunta bastante larga. También se entiende mejor como un desafío (para los Estados y otros) a medida que la contradicción principal de las relaciones internacionales pasa de estar basada en la perfección de los Estados, su sistema y su lenguaje/valores (a través de tropos imbuidos del Estado de Derecho) a una en la que los comerciantes, en lugar de los burócratas, podrían sentirse más cómodos. Esto se complica porque incluso los términos antiguos adquieren ambigüedad en el contexto cubano contemporáneo (¿autodeterminación, incluyendo la diáspora cubana?, por ejemplo).

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Esta es una contradicción que México enfrenta ahora; una contradicción forjada a la sombra de sus siempre delicadas y sólidas relaciones con Estados Unidos, y ahora formulada dentro de esa "crisis de regalos que no cesa de dar" que es Cuba. Cuba siempre ha ocupado un lugar preponderante en la política exterior de Estados Unidos y México. Y, en ocasiones, sus respectivas acciones en Cuba y en torno a ella han servido como una forma indirecta de involucrarse en algunas de las áreas más divisivas de sus relaciones bilaterales (mucho más amplias). Tanto para Estados Unidos como para México, Cuba se entiende a veces más como la encarnación de un ideal, de una lucha ideológica y de un experimento que moldea lo mejor y lo peor de... El Estado, el sistema estatal y sus peculiaridades, en un contexto que, irónicamente, reproduce en cierto modo el conflicto fundamental entre los imperios inglés y español de los siglos XVII-XIX, pero ahora reformulado, modernizado y contextualizado entre Estados Unidos y México, representando el patrimonio heredado de imperios difuntos, del control y las disputas dentro de la Tierra Firme Española especialmente del Caribe. Pero Cuba no es el problema, es el objeto, cuyo uso anima una "conversación" mucho más importante; no es tanto Cuba lo importante, sino la idea de Cuba y su utilidad para moldear las relaciones entre grandes potencias, cuyas consecuencias se sentirán a lo largo de lesa Tierra Firme del Caribe Español, pero especialmente dentro de Cuba, la joya de su corona caribeña.

David Marcial Pérez resumió acertadamente el desafío y sus trampas para México:

Cuba se ha convertido en una de las principales prioridades de política exterior del gobierno mexicano. Desde el aumento Ante la presión estadounidense que ha llevado a la isla a una situación crítica, la presidenta mexicana, Claudia Sheinbaum, se ha pronunciado casi a diario para denunciar la restricción económica impuesta por el presidente estadounidense Donald Trump y reafirmar el apoyo de México a La Habana.

Más allá del delicado equilibrio con Washington, el apoyo a Cuba también resuena profundamente en Morena, el partido gobernante de México, donde se nutre de una larga tradición de afinidad política que se remonta a los antiguos gobiernos liderados por el Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) y que se reavivó bajo la administración anterior. Ninguna otra crisis regional, ni siquiera la acción militar estadounidense contra Venezuela, ha provocado una respuesta tan firme y persistente del gobierno mexicano. (Aquí)


 

Crédito de la imagen aquí (El País, "Ante el colapso económico, una Cuba acorralada se ve obligada a dialogar con Estados Unidos"). 

 

 Para la presidenta de México, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, probablemente una de las figuras políticas más capaces de la región y también alguien que está demostrando ser hábil para mediar entre el institucionalismo de viejo estilo, el regionalismo latinoamericano (como la manifestación contemporánea de las brasas de los oníricos paisajes imperiales españoles, no reinventados para adaptarse a los gustos modernos) y el transaccionalismo estadounidense, Cuba ha representado un desafío y una oportunidad. El desafío de la presidenta Sheinbaum puede incluir la necesidad de equilibrar los apegos tradicionales a la "idea" de Cuba (o al menos al gobierno revolucionario cubano y lo que podría representar en la política mexicana) con las realidades de la estabilidad regional ante un nuevo enfoque de Estados Unidos, uno que los estadounidenses ahora están dispuestos a poner en práctica, y uno que, si bien es indiferente a las sutilezas territoriales del "espacio" cubano (y venezolano), está bastante interesado en supervisar los espacios territoriales, las plataformas dentro y a través de las cuales ambos estados podrían estar abiertos al tipo de comercio e inversión, y en los términos y bajo las reglas que satisfagan los intereses de Estados Unidos (y quizás, en cierta medida, los de las empresas mexicanas también, aunque no necesariamente los de su antigua política).

El asunto ha alcanzado un punto crítico a medida que Estados Unidos se ha esforzado más por "reformar" una Cuba que se ha mostrado reacia a reformarse a sí misma a pesar de las súplicas de décadas de sus amigos y sus propias élites. La táctica es antigua: el asedio. Pero el asedio se ha vuelto más complejo en la era posterior a 1945: Gaza ha demostrado ser el modelo (a menos que, por supuesto, las normas del derecho internacional sean exclusivas para los judíos, pero eso no puede ser), y uno que distingue entre presionar (y asesinar, expulsar o neutralizar de alguna otra forma) a funcionarios institucionales y un trato de base a la población civil. Pero incluso ese cálculo es complicado en Cuba, donde, incluso a diferencia de Gaza, el propio aparato estatal parecía contentarse con institucionalizar la gobernanza de un Estado de Miseria en pos de sus propios objetivos (véase la discusión aquí en inglés). 

 Por otro lado, esto representa un beneficio para México que ahora no requiere casi nada más que una muestra de caridad para apaciguar la conciencia y cumplir con su deber ideológico y político interno. En todo esto, por supuesto, Cuba misma desempeña un papel secundario: un objeto de intervención estratégica en una dialéctica de larga data entre México y Estados Unidos, en la que es (y siempre es) un objeto colateral. Sin embargo, incluso los asedios modernos pueden ser efectivos. Véase, por ejemplo, Aerolíneas cortan vuelos a Cuba mientras el bloqueo de combustible estadounidense deja los aeropuertos sin combustible para aviones; Cunde el pánico entre los canadienses varados en Cuba; Rusia repatriará a ciudadanos varados en Cuba en medio de la crisis del combustible; Apagones continuos, escasez hospitalaria: Cómo el bloqueo petrolero estadounidense está impactando a Cuba.

Y así, México busca suministrar petróleo a Cuba, al menos una cantidad ostentosa, pero en ese momento cualquier cosa es mejor que nada; Estados Unidos se opone; y México suspende el suministro. Pero el petróleo es un producto con alta volatilidad en el panorama político estadounidense, y eso tiene sentido. La ayuda humanitaria, por otro lado, es diferente (de nuevo, Gaza como modelo: los seres humanos pueden aprender y aplicar ese aprendizaje de todo tipo de situaciones; todo lo que hay que hacer es estar dispuesto a articular y transponer el "aprendizaje"). Tanto México como Estados Unidos pueden proporcionarla, aunque a través de diferentes canales y con distintos efectos: el primero al pueblo, el segundo a través del Estado (por ejemplo, Cumpliendo nuestro compromiso: Asistencia estadounidense en caso de desastre al pueblo cubano; "Aviones y barcos fletados por el Departamento de Estado para entregar asistencia. Por lo tanto, trabajaremos con Catholic Relief Services y con Cáritas para brindar esa asistencia sobre el terreno" Aquí).

Durante su conferencia matutina, la mandataria explicó que México ha planteado tanto al Departamento de Estado de Estados Unidos como a la embajada estadounidense en territorio mexicano su disposición a contribuir a un acercamiento, siempre bajo el principio de respeto a la soberanía de Cuba y la autodeterminación de los pueblos. (Cibercuba)

Estados Unidos desea un acuerdo transaccional con Cuba (sea cual sea su forma de gobierno, pero sujeto a las limitaciones de la legislación estadounidense). En ese caso, México servirá de mediador, una voz de la razón que represente al lado latino de las Américas, mientras ambos consideran maneras en que Cuba pueda volver a encajar en esas fronteras del viejo imperio que, en sus rescoldos, conserva cierto prestigio. Informes recientes publicados en Facebook (que, para quienes no lo conozcan, Estados Unidos no es sólo una herramienta para mantener conectados a los abuelos) sugieren las estrategias, bastante interesantes, de la presidenta Sheinbaum ante estos desafíos:

foto crédito acquí
La presidenta de México, Claudia Sheinbaum, insistió este jueves 12 de febrero en que su Gobierno está dispuesto a facilitar el "diálogo" entre Estados Unidos y Cuba, en medio de las tensiones por las sanciones anunciadas por Washington a los países que suministran petróleo a la isla y la aguda crisis económica que atraviesa el país caribeño.

"Ya lo hemos hecho. Depende de los dos países. Nosotros, tanto al Departamento de Estado de Estados Unidos como a través de la embajada (de Cuba) en México, hemos planteado que México ponga todo de su parte para poder generar un diálogo que permita en el marco de la soberanía de Cuba", afirmó la mandataria durante su conferencia de prensa matutina. El gobernante mexicano subrayó que esta postura responde a los principios tradicionales de la política exterior mexicana. “Porque eso es muy importante, porque es además nuestro principio, la autodeterminación de los pueblos. Generar las condiciones para un diálogo pacífico y que además Cuba, sin que ningún país tenga la sanción, pueda recibir petróleo y sus derivados para su funcionamiento cotidiano”, sostuvo. México ha mantenido en las últimas semanas un papel activo frente a la crisis cubana, con envíos de ayuda humanitaria y posicionamientos diplomáticos ante las sanciones de Washington.


Precisamente este jueves, dos buques de la Marina mexicana arribaron a La Habana con alimentos y productos básicos en medio de la crisis energética que sufre la isla, agravada por restricciones y tensiones en torno al suministro de petróleo. Asimismo, el Gobierno mexicano ha confirmado que continuará enviando asistencia humanitaria y coordinando esfuerzos con organizaciones civiles para mitigar los efectos de los apagones y la situación económica en Cuba, que se ha deteriorado por el embargo estadounidense y la escasez de combustible. En este contexto, Sheinbaum reiteró que México busca un papel constructivo en la región. "Como lo he dicho, nosotros estamos enviando distinta ayuda, distinto apoyo, ya el día de hoy llegan los barcos. En cuanto regresen vamos a enviar más apoyo de distinto tipo", aseveró. (web de Panorama)


Crédito de la imagen aquí


La pelota está en la cancha de Estados Unidos. O actúa con decisión o vuelve al patrón de esfuerzos tibios estadounidenses, interrumpidos por largos períodos de letargo acompañados de elementos teatrales para entretener a sus masas y a las élites, sin ánimo de hacer mucho más que mantener el statu quo. Sería una lástima. Cuba debería poder reformarse. Ciertamente, sus propias élites internas han trazado varias maneras en que esto podría lograrse, incluso preservando la esencia del modelo político-económico actual, al igual que los cubanos en la diáspora (mis pensamientos al respecto aquí ("Fundamentos Legales-Institucionales para la Reconstrucción en una Cuba Post-Revolucionaria: Un Ejercicio Conceptual", Comentarios preparados para ser entregados en la Conferencia Anual de 2025 de la Asociación para el Estudio de la Economía Cubana, Miami, Florida, 25 de octubre de 2025)). Pero la esclerosis soviética todavía puede resultar fatal para las élites que, a su manera, continúan viviendo en una burbuja de su propia creación (considerada más teóricamente en el breve ensayo Ciudades Prohibidas; situación actual aquí). Pero aquí Cuba puede seguir siendo su peor enemigo; consideremos esta pequeña disimulación a la luz de las declaraciones de México:

“Todo parece indicar que el Secretario de Estado le ha hecho creer al presidente Trump el cuento de las negociaciones”, dijo Gómez, quien añadió que se trataría de “una manipulación descarada” y de la fabricación de un “pretexto peligroso”. . . Las declaraciones forman parte de la narrativa oficial del régimen, que niega la existencia de negociaciones formales con Washington mientras acusa a sectores del gobierno estadounidense de promover una escalada contra la isla. (Oficialismo cubano desmiente rumores y dice que Rubio manipuló a Trump con “cuento” de negociaciones)
El cambio de régimen podría llegar a Cuba, pero en este momento la causa es tanto la falta de voluntad de la elite para reformarse a sí misma como el entusiasmo de los extranjeros por reformar a Cuba a su propio gusto. Parece que lo único que sigue funcionando bien dentro de la nomenclatura es su aparato de propaganda, alimentado y potenciado por una red global de simpatizantes (p. ej., aquí; aquí). Es una lástima, pero también una señal de los peligros que Cuba se ha creado desde que abandonó sus propias políticas reformistas marxistas-leninistas tras el VII Congreso del Partido. En este punto, las opciones para los líderes cubanos son uniformemente desagradables, pero se están volviendo cada vez más incontrolables. Quizás la alternativa menos disruptiva sería un retorno al gobierno revolucionario anterior a 1976 (dirigido por los militares) con el mandato de reformar y ofrecer un sistema gubernamental modernizado, quizás un sistema socialista orientado al mercado; quizás un sistema que incluya un espacio para el liderazgo del Partido Comunista (pero ciertamente no en su forma actual), y lo más doloroso de todo: una apertura de sus mercados internos a los extranjeros, ciertamente controlada hasta cierto punto, pero ya es demasiado tarde para el sistema más modulado de apertura gradual mediante la expansión de las revistas económicas espaciales. El gran reinicio, por supuesto, también sería difícil: la legitimación de la economía informal y el uso de esas estructuras y normas como base para la reforma económica y legal del sector de consumo. Y subyacente a todo esto se encuentra una rectificación ardua de la Nomenclatura y las normas para la participación de la diáspora en la reconstrucción de la República sin tomar el control. Estas serán las tareas más difíciles de todas; ojalá alguien en algún lugar del mundo de los funcionarios haya estado pensando en esto...