The Sleeper Awakens: Text of Senator JD Vance's Remarks Delivered at the Munich Security Conference 18 February 2024 and Some Reflections

 

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It seems that the great awakening of the 21st century, unlike that of the American 18th century, appears to center on an apotheosis tied somehow to the state of being "woke." Of course, people in the 21st century appear to have been awakened in sometimes startling different ways.  Of course, every awakening is not merely inward, the achievement of a personal state of some sort of grace or enlightenment (depending on one's orientation culturally); it also compels spreading the "good news"--the gospel --to those who must awaken. When a speaker awakens, that speaker must speak: each must embrace as well--or so it appears to be in a set of constantly repeating cultural iterations since the revolution in Palestinian Judaism of the 1st Century of the Common Era--the role of evangel to spread the good news and awaken others.

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Mr. Vance also appears to have been embracing the role of evangelist for gōdspel (from the Old English gōd ‘good’ + spel ‘news). And what better place to awaken other sleepers to the good news of the coming re- or trans-valuation of all values (Umwertung aller Werte) than at the Munich Security Conference. There, on 18 February 2024 "Senator JD Vance (R-OH) delivered a “wake up call” to Europe." (Press Release and Transcript of Remarks). In it here awake to the successes, during his first term, of President's Trump Russia policy, and what it might mean both for the European security apparatus and the priorities of the United States.  

In the process he also provided an insight into the premises that shape those views and that judgment. These, in turn, are grounded in some sort of Manichaen dualist view of the world as composed of an infinite number of binaries that when aligned add up to zero. In particular, the view that productive capacity cannot grow but is merely shifted around to reflect priorities, is worth some considerable consideration. But more than that, the remarks suggest the semiotics of context--that is the way that values and premises about the world shape the possibilities and assessment of the possibilities within that self-referencing meaning-cube. As such, the premises, principles, and outlooks--the core assumptions that drive Mr. Vance's analysis, are not merely conceptually Manichaean but also in their application quite traditionally imperial in that way that this term itself has changed meaning and force (see essays here).

The application appears to have significant consequences for the ordering of US relations--especially with America's European friends and enemies.  Mr. Vance explains: 

“Now, on the question of European security, I think there’s a fundamental issue here that Europe really has to wake up to. And I offer this in the spirit of friendship, not in the spirit of criticism, because, no, I don’t think that we should pull out of NATO, and no, I don’t think that we should abandon Europe. But yes, I think that we should pivot. The United States has to focus more on East Asia. That is going to be the future of American foreign policy for the next 40 years, and Europe has to wake up to that fact."(Press Release and Transcript of Remarks).

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In that context, Mr. Vance suggests, “we need our European allies to step up in Europe."  (Ibid.). Fair enough--American leaders since Mr. Kennedy in the early 1960s have complained, sometimes bitterly about European free riding--with the added bonus of having to listen to European moralizing. On the other hand, that is precisely the cultural baseline for imperial behaviors among an overlord and their barons.  And it is perfectly fair to change the equation as conditions on the ground change. The question that ought to be asked, and the answers debated, touches on the end point of these revisions. Surely not an abandonment.  But with additional financial and other obligations may come a greater say in the shape and direction of the alliances that weave the Americans and Europeans together--even as the Americans embark with greater ferocity on their East Asian projects. The justification in terms of limited industrial capacity, though, makes little sense, especially given the history of the nation one state of which he represents.  Yet it is also true that, like foundations and other donors, the US cannot be expected to  have its generosity go unrewarded--one way or another.  And those are precisely the sensitive topics that have been avoided and that must be addressed.  Nonetheless, Mr. Vance's focus on scarcity is troubling--he appears to view scarcity as a barrier--it might be more useful for a n aspiring national leader to view it as a challenge. That, in turn, requires traveling further along the roadway to awakening on which Mr. Vance appears to be journeying.  

That journeying, in turn, may refine the nature and focus of the state of "woke" regarding Ukraine. Mr. Vance also purports to suggest that, with respect to Ukraine, he supposes (a supposition that might mask his own woken view) of the absence of an endpoint. Of course that, in turn, imposes a rejection of the endpoint that has been quite clear from the Ukrainian side--to recover all territory occupied by the Russian Federation and recover its damages (along with prosecution of criminal elements).  People might read into this some sort of willingness to negotiate away from the Ukrainian endpoint to something more agreeable to Ukraine's American benefactors.  And, indeed, Mr. Vance explains:

 “And my argument is, look, I think what’s reasonable to accomplish is some negotiated peace. I think Russia has incentive to come to the table right now. I think Ukraine, Europe, and the United States have incentive to come to the table. That is going to happen. This will end in a negotiated peace. The question is when it ends in a negotiated peace and what that looks like. (Press Release and Transcript of Remarks).

The problem is, that as it stands, Ukrainians might be forgiven for thinking they will not get much from the bargain. Security guarantees might have less value the paper it might, in another age, have been printed on. Certainly, neither the Americans nor the Europeans have put their money where their mouths are--NATO and EU membership--just the endless frustrating babbling among techno bureaucrats that might raise the fear among Ukrainians that they are to be treated to a variation of the EU dance around Turkish membership. And endless chatter about corruption from places that have themselves not quite overcome their own variations on that theme in the public and private sectors. If Mr. Vance is correct, and if this will become US policy, then it is likely that the terms of the deal, for the Ukrainians at least, will have to be considerably sweetened--and not just with the usual promises from the imperial center or its subalterns in Europe. On that, at least, there would be much work to be done beyond the discursive stances that have sufficed to date. Failure here would, within the conceptual universe of Mr Vance, considerably augment the challenges of scarcity about which his fretting has produced policy.That also is fair enough.

 Ordinarily that might not have made much of a difference to any but Mr. Vance. However, Mr. Vance now assumes the role of candidate for the Vice Presidency of the United States on the Republican ticket headed by Mr. Trump.

JD Vance introduced himself to a national audience Wednesday after being chosen as Donald Trump’s running mate, sharing the story of his hardscrabble upbringing and making the case that his party best understands the challenges facing struggling Americans.

Speaking to a packed arena at the Republican National Convention, the Ohio senator cast himself as fighter for a forgotten working class, making a direct appeal to the Rust Belt voters who helped drive Trump’s surprise 2016 victory and voicing their anger and frustration. (here)

 And because those remarks may serve to influence what might be the second term of Mr. Trump, should he be successful in his bid for office, it might make sense to revisit them and consider them more carefully for what they reveal.  And the importance of revelation is not so much in the application of policy but in the fundamental principles and world views that shape them. Mr. Vance, it seems, is a product of a process of awakening--the trajectories of his life (as he describes them in his book Hillbilly Elegy) suggest that the process of awakening is dynamic. For the moment though this appears to be the context of his current woken state. For Europeans, especially, there is much to consider.  And for Europeans (and especially Ukrainians), it may be necessary to meet this school of evangelism with their own.  Mr. Vance, we are told, is fond of Augustine of Hippo (his chosen patron saint); it may be necessary to remind him of the evangelical power of Paul. And that, eventually may require a council (like Nicaea) in which our woken magisterium might better align their expression of the good news that all, together, represent. 

The Remarks follow below.  They may be accessed in the original from Senator Vance's website here.  

 

• February 18, 2024

SENATOR VANCE DELIVERS A “WAKE UP CALL” TO MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE

MUNICH, GERMANY – Senator JD Vance (R-OH) delivered a “wake up call” to Europe in remarks to the Munich Security Conference this morning.

Watch Senator Vance’s remarks here and read a transcript below: 

Senator Vance on President Trump’s success in deterring Russia, the limited ability of the West to produce weapons, and the United States’ need to pivot its focus to East Asia:

“We have to remember that despite a lot of the hand-wringing, and I’ve heard a lot of it in private meetings and public meetings, Donald Trump was maybe the best president at deterring Russia in a generation.

“In fact, the only time that Russia has not invaded a foreign country over the last 20 years was the four years that Donald Trump was President. And it’s interesting that so many people accuse Trump, or me, or others of being in Putin’s pocket, and yet the person that Vladimir Putin says he wants to be the next president is not Donald Trump – he says Joe Biden is his preferred candidate because he’s more predictable.

“Now, on the question of European security, I think there’s a fundamental issue here that Europe really has to wake up to. And I offer this in the spirit of friendship, not in the spirit of criticism, because, no, I don’t think that we should pull out of NATO, and no, I don’t think that we should abandon Europe. But yes, I think that we should pivot. The United States has to focus more on East Asia. That is going to be the future of American foreign policy for the next 40 years, and Europe has to wake up to that fact.

“Now, let me just throw a couple of facts out there. Number one, the problem in Ukraine from the perspective of the United States of America, and I represent, I believe, the majority of American public opinion, even though I don’t represent the majority of opinion of senators who come to Munich, is that there’s no clear endpoint, and fundamentally the limiting factors for American support of Ukraine, it’s not money, it’s munitions. America, and this is true, by the way, of Europe too, we don’t make enough munitions to support a war in Eastern Europe, a war in the Middle East, and potentially a contingency in East Asia. So the United States is fundamentally limited.

“Now, let me just throw very specific details. The PAC-3, which is a Patriot interceptor, Ukraine uses in a month what the United States makes in a year. The Patriot missile system is on a five year back order, 155 millimeter artillery shells on more than a five year back order, We’re talking in the United States about ramping up our production of artillery to 100,000 a month by the end of 2025. The Russians make close to 500,000 a month right now at this very minute. So the problem here vis-à-vis Ukraine is America doesn’t make enough weapons, Europe doesn’t make enough weapons, and that reality is far more important than American political will or how much money we print and then send to Europe. And the final point that I’ll make just to respond here, because I know people have heard what Trump said, and you know, they’ve criticized it and they’ve said, well, ‘Trump is going to abandon Europe.’

“I don’t think that’s true at all. I think Trump is actually issuing a wake up call to say that Europe has to take a bigger role in its own security. Germany just this year will spend more than 2% of GDP. That, of course, is something that we had to really push for in the United States, and it just now has finally cleared that threshold.

“But it’s not just about money spent. How many mechanized brigades could Germany field tomorrow? Maybe one. The problem with Europe is that it doesn’t provide enough of a deterrence on its own because it hasn’t taken the initiative in its own security. I think that the American security blanket has allowed European security to atrophy.

“And again, the point is not we want to abandon Europe. The point is we need to focus as a country on East Asia, and we need our European allies to step up in Europe. I appreciate what my English friend [David Lammy] over here said. And of course, England has been one of the few exceptions where I think it has fielded a very capable military over the last generation. But that hasn’t been true for a lot of Europe, and that has to change.”

Senator Vance on the need for a negotiated peace to end the war in Ukraine:

“It’s very hard, the juxtaposition between the idea that Putin poses an existential threat to Europe, compared again against the fact that we’re trying to convince our allies to spend 2% of GDP. Those ideas are very much in tension. I do not think that Vladimir Putin is an existential threat to Europe and to the extent that he is, again, that suggests that Europe has to take a more aggressive role in its own security.

“That’s number one. But again, I go back to this question about ‘abandoning Ukraine.’ If the package that’s running through the Congress right now, $61 billion of supplemental aid to Ukraine, goes through, I have to be honest to you, that is not going to fundamentally change the reality on the battlefield. The amount of munitions that we can send to Ukraine right now is very limited.

“Again, not by American willpower or by American money, but by American manufacturing capacity. All of those back orders that I just highlighted, those are not problems in the future. Those are problems today, and they provide real limitations. So all I’m saying is in that world of real limitations, what is realistic to accomplish in Ukraine? Can we send the level of weaponry we’ve set for the last 18 months for the next 18 months?

“We simply cannot. No matter how many checks the US Congress writes, we are limited there. Munitions matter a lot in warfare. What we haven’t talked about, of course, is manpower matters a lot in warfare, and we know the Ukrainians are very limited on that. So our argument, at least my argument here is, given the realities that we face, the very real constraints in munitions and manpower, what is reasonable to accomplish and when do we actually think we’re going to accomplish it?

“And my argument is, look, I think what’s reasonable to accomplish is some negotiated peace. I think Russia has incentive to come to the table right now. I think Ukraine, Europe, and the United States have incentive to come to the table. That is going to happen. This will end in a negotiated peace. The question is when it ends in a negotiated peace and what that looks like.

Senator Vance on prioritizing American interests when engaging with adversaries:

“To respond to Navalny’s death: look, he was clearly a brave person. His death is a tragedy. I don’t think that he should have been in prison. I don’t think that he should have been killed in prison. And I condemn Putin for doing it. But here’s the problem: it doesn’t teach us anything new about Putin.

“I’ve never once argued that Putin is a kind and friendly person. I’ve argued that he’s a person with distinct interests, and the United States has to respond to that person with distinct interests. We don’t have to agree with him. We can contest him and we often will contest him. But the fact that he’s a bad guy does not mean we can’t engage in basic diplomacy and prioritizing America’s interests. There are a lot of bad guys all over the world, and I’m much more interested in some of the problems in East Asia right now than I am in Europe.

Senator Vance on the state of weapons manufacturing in the West, the risk posed by deindustrialization, and the inability of measures like GDP to indicate a nation’s military strength:

“We need Europe to play a bigger share of the security role, and that’s not because we don’t care about Europe … it’s because we have to recognize that we live in a world of scarcity. When I listen to these questions and I listen to so many of the private conversations I’ve had, one of the attitudes that I think is very, very dominant at the Munich Security Conference is the idea of the American superpower that can do everything all at once.

“And what I’m telling you is that we live in a world of scarcity, a world of scarcity and weapons manufacturing and America’s capacity to make the critical machinery of war, and that world of scarcity is what I’m trying to get us all to wake up to. In that world of scarcity, we can’t support Ukraine and the Middle East and contingencies in East Asia. It just doesn’t make any sense. The math doesn’t work out in terms of weapons manufacturing.

“One final point I want to make here is I hear a lot of self-congratulation in this room and some of the conversations that I’ve had back home in the United States, this is not just a criticism of Europe, a lot of self-congratulation about how much our GDP is bigger than Russia’s GDP.

“And yes, we are richer than Russia. Our citizens have better lives than the average Russian citizen. That is certainly something to celebrate and be proud of. But you don’t win wars with GDP or euros or dollars. You win wars with weapons, and the West doesn’t make enough weapons. I don’t mean to beat up on Germany here because I love Germany, but I want to respond to something [Member of the German Bundestag] Ms. Lang said earlier. Look, Germany is the one country, maybe in NATO, that did not follow the stupid Washington consensus and allow their country to be deindustrialized during the ‘70s, ’80s, and ‘90s. And yet, at the very moment that Putin is more and more powerful, where the Russian army is invading European countries en masse, this is the point at which Germany starts to deindustrialize?

“Look at the number of people working in manufacturing in Germany now versus ten years ago. Look at the critical raw materials produced in Germany now versus ten years ago. The energy dependence now versus 10 or 20 years ago. We have got to stop deindustrializing. We want Europe to be successful, but Europe has got to take a bigger role in its own security. You can’t do that without industry.”

To watch the full panel discussion, click here.

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