So-Called Sonic Weapons (Anomalous Health Incidents): Office of the Director of National Intelligence Releases Unclassified Updated Assessment of Anomalous Health Incidents

IThe National Intelligence Council issued an updated Intelligence Community Assessment, an unclassified executive summary of which was approved for release by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on 9 January 2025, and released for public consumption on 10 January 2025 (ICA 2025-00008-B) an "Updated Assessment of Anomalous Health Incidents" (December 2024). ODNI issued its usual terse announcement on its website as follows:

This Intelligence Community (IC)-drafted and coordinated Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) addresses the IC’s evaluation of new information possibly related to anomalous health incidents (AHIs) since the publication of the ICA Updated Assessment of Anomalous Health Incidents, ICA 2023-02286, on 1 March 2023.

Download the report here.

About the National Intelligence Council: The National Intelligence Council (NIC) plays a central role in coordinating intelligence products and is responsible for leading analysis across the IC to inform immediate and long-term policy deliberations. National Intelligence Officers (NIOs) serve as the principal subject matter experts to the DNI and national security decision makers on all aspects of analysis related to their regional and functional roles.

Some media organs have taken notice because, once one parses  through its grey and well modulated language, there is an indication that there may be a growing difference of views (or at least likelihood assessment) within the intelligence community (IC) with respect elements of Anomalous Health Incidents.  As Shane Harris put it in reporting for The Atlantic: 

"New information has come to light causing some in the intelligence community to adjust their previous conclusions. And a new report reopens the possibility that a mystery weapon used by a foreign adversary caused Havana syndrome. At the White House, senior Biden-administration officials are more convinced than their colleagues in the intelligence agencies that Havana syndrome could have been the result of a deliberate attack by an American foe. The geopolitical consequences are profound," 

The essence of the fracture (if that is what wants to call it), is in two paragraphs, nicely highlighted in the Executive Summary:

• In judging that it is “very unlikely” that a foreign actor is responsible, five IC components place emphasis on sensitive intelligence reporting continuing to point away from foreign involvement in AHIs, the IC’s investigations of key incidents reported as possible AHIs, and a review of foreign intelligence and research regarding the development of novel weapons. Two components still have moderate-to-high confidence in this judgment, and three components still have moderate confidence. These components also judge it is “very unlikely” a foreign actor has used a novel weapon or prototype device to harm even a subset of the USG personnel or dependents who reported medical symptoms or sensory phenomena as AHIs.

• In contrast, one IC component judges there is a “roughly even chance” a foreign actor has used a novel weapon or prototype device to harm a small, undetermined subset of the USG personnel or dependents who reported medical symptoms or sensory phenomena as AHIs. Another IC component judges there is a “roughly even chance” a foreign actor has developed a novel weapon or prototype device that could have harmed a small, undetermined subset of the USG personnel or dependents who reported medical symptoms or sensory phenomena as AHIs. However, this component continues to assess it is unlikely a foreign actor has deployed such a weapon in any events reported as possible AHIs. Both of these IC components have low confidence in these judgments. These shifts are based on reporting they evaluate to indicate that foreign actors are making progress in scientific research and weapons development.

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The analytic trick here is to read beyond the first couple of lines--a practice that is increasingly difficult in an era  where the brain is equipped only for short bursts of text, and to avoid general summaries that flatten the complexities of their inputs. Moreover, the notice of fracture hides more than it discloses.  One is unaware of who has shifted positions, and more importantly why. 

One key issue seems to revolve around novel weapons.  But novel weapon or prototype suggests the underlying institutional mechanisms and premises that make the design and production of something novel and certainly its prototype possible. One wonders whether, if that is what one is looking for, one may not be looking in the right places. There is even a museum for this that might be as useful for learning about the cognition of gadgetry as it might be about the gadgets themselves (here).

Another may revolve around foreign actors: much of the reporting still embraces 20th  century sensibilities--focusing on State actors.  But surely as events in 2024 make now unavoidable--the hyper-focus on formally constituted state actors as either sources or exclusive users is now somewhat outdated.  Any clever individual  with a very little bit of money can now repurpose all sorts of items in the most curious ways. 

While the stylized fantasy narratives of 007's "Q" represent the high end work of well financed institutions committed to innovation, assuming such things exist, most likely within tightly interlinked systems of cooperation among any number of actors, the 14 year old in their parent's spare room in some part of the world where the gaze of monitoring forces are indifferent can sometimes surprise.   And the crudeness of AHI injury might well suggest not some sophisticated engineering or science, but something far more makeshift. Again one can find only what one is looking for, and if one narrows one's gaze one cannot find what one has dismissed as implausible. 

The mirror cracks. . . . .

In any case, one can only welcome this sort of update. One hopes that further developments will be as revealing as possible, though in that respect national security, and our own interests, may make that impossible. In that case, again, what may be in order at a minimum is a robust program of aid to those affected. 

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Sonic Inversions-- Reflections and Report: US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: Review of the CIA's Efforts to Provide Facilitated Medical Care and Benefits for Individuals Affected by Anomalous Health Incidents: Audits and Projects Report 24-01

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In sum, the absence of a clear case definition for AHIs, uncertainty surrounding the origin of
AHIs, and CIA’s evolving organizational position have greatly complicated CIA’s ability to
consistently and transparently facilitate medical care, provide compensation and other benefits, and communicate clearly about AHIs to the workforce. These challenges will be detailed throughout the remaining findings in the report.

 Perhaps nothing serves as a better harbinger of the inversion of power relationships in the emerging systems of governance by techno-bureaucratic caste collectives than the meandering story around what was for a time called Havana syndrome and is now known by its more appropriately banal name: Anomalous Health Incidents (my essays on this long story here: Cuba Sonic Weapons Affair).  Future generations may come to understand this episode for an important instance in the movement from a political to a bureaucratic state organization in which liberal democratic institutions shift the locus of their power relations from that between popular sovereigns and their elected officials, t that between the administrative apparatus of a state and the political organs that serve as disciplinary appendages to their operation. This will come to haunt both liberal democratic and Marxist-Leninist systems, though in different ways; and it will ultimately transform that techno-bureaucracy as well, as it transitions from one driven by human cliques to one in which human caretakers serve the virtual systems created to make techno-bureaucracy both more efficient and less "biased." 

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 The turn, or better the inversion of the relationship between the political and administrative apparatus might be gleaned usefully from a recent report distributed (in a public version) by the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: Review of the CIA's Efforts to Provide Facilitated Medical Care and Benefits for Individuals Affected by Anomalous Health Incidents: Audits and Projects Report 24-01. The Report is worth a careful read, if only for the careful language used to gently describe the power relations around one of the most innocuous areas of the sonic weapons tale--treatment. 

According to the 18-page report, titled "Review of CIA's Efforts to Provide Facilitated Medical Care and Benefits for Individuals Affected by Anomalous Health Incidents [AHIs]," the CIA's response has been marred by inadequate communication and "messaging challenges," inconsistent medical support, delayed compensation and a dismissive attitude toward affected individuals. These failures have hindered efforts to provide proper treatment and left many victims struggling to access benefits. "CIA has provided benefits and compensation to many AHI reporters, but ease of access to these programs has been inconsistent and affected by CIA's organizational position on AHIs," the report states. * * * The report revealed that despite a growing number of cases, the agency was slow to standardize protocols for identifying and treating victims. The report stated that the CIA facilitated AHI-related medical care for nearly 100 CIA-affiliated incidents, but many individuals faced obstacles to timely and sufficient care. (Newsweek)

Perhaps nothing sums up the techno-bureaucratic contradictions  into which the apparatus of state is now inevitably  than the notion of consumption: for a techno-bureaucracy with collective objectives, individuals are productive forces that must be consumed in order for the apparatus to attain its objectives. Those who are to be consumed may embrace their fate willingly; many, however are taught a valuable lesson about the relationship of the individual to the techno-bureaucratic mass organization. Those who are about to be consumed produce a residual element that eventually will consume the consuming apparatus--distrust.

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Distrust of CIA has been a common theme among AHI reporters the Committee interviewed.
Many of the AHI reporters with whom Committee staff spoke for this review expressed some
degree of distrust of the Agency, including some who perceived that their career was negatively impacted for reporting an AHI or seeking support related to their AHI. AHI reporters’ distrust took many forms. For example, many AHI reporters who spoke to Committee staff did not trust CIA to act toward them in good faith, which led to them frequently question the motives behind CIA's actions. This distrust was further reinforced by poor communication and a lack of transparency. AHI reporters’ distrust also stemmed from their concerns that CIA’s analytic effort on AHls has not been objective. More than a dozen individuals who spoke to Committee staff questioned the objectivity of CIA’s analytic line on AHIs, its analytic trade craft, or the soundness of its findings. Finally, AHI reporters have also cited “stigma” or fear associated with reporting or talking about AHIs, which could have a chilling effect on future AHI reporting. The Committee assesses that (_’IA could benefit from an examination of how its response t o AHIs has impacted its workforce, to include issues of morale and trust. Report, p. 14).

As compliance oriented cultures become more deeply embedded as the emerging driver of government and the State, and where the political branches increasingly become instruments that are managed by the organs they created to manage objectives and compliance based systems. These systems, in turn represented an innovation that sought to move from the more ancient and personal forms of government--by commands enforced through an apparatus of investigation, prosecution, and judgment, to one that internalized behaviors through systems of punishments and rewards administered  through systems overseen by technically proficient "experts". That change, momentous in hindsight, also required a willingness to devolve authority from political to technical organs, and to permit these technical organs to further devolve the burdens of fulfillment to the objects against which they were created. Security, secrets, efficiency and the universalization of policy driven social relations not merely changes power dynamics within government, and between government and those governed, but it also changes the way in which each of these factors in the production of collective order and stability are conceptualized, treated and ordered within a collective. The Sonic Weapons adventure suggests some of the detritus of this transformation--in this case a product of the increasing disjunction between the way things are and the way we used to think they were. 

The Report follows below. 

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"Investigating the Intelligence Community’s Conclusions on Anomalous Health Incidents: Is the Intelligence Community Hiding the Real Reason for This Phenomenon?" Interim Report by Chairman Rick Crawford of the Subcommittee on the Central Intelligence Agency of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence U.S. House of Representatives

 

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 "The Subcommittee is aware that the IC continues to withhold valuable information from
the Subcommittee. For this reason, a final unclassified report cannot be issued at this time. In
addition, the Subcommittee plans to issue a classified report that explains why the Subcommittee finds the conclusions reached in the ICA dubious at best, and misleading at worst. It is not possible, in an unclassified format, to detail the full scale and scope of the Subcommittee’s investigation, as well as the findings that have resulted from this investigation. Nevertheless, it is the hope of the Subcommittee that this interim unclassified report will shed light on the need to better understand AHIs and the toll they have taken on the IC workforce. The Subcommittee will continue this investigation into the 119th Congress." ("Investigating the Intelligence Community’s Conclusions on Anomalous Health Incidents: Is the Intelligence Community Hiding the Real Reason for This Phenomenon?")

 

  I have been writing about so-called Havana Syndrome since shortly after it became a "thing" in 2017 (Cuba Sonic Weapons Affair). I have, from the first, suggested that the issue was far less about either the weapons (or as the Cubans euphemistically called them, the crickets when the issue caught the attention of the old press in the West) or their injuries, than it was about the autonomy of the security services of global players and their engagement with the possibilities of technology now updated from the crude Soviet weaponry of the 1960s. The problem with Havana Syndrome, then, wasn't about the syndrome itself, but about the relationship of collective global security apparatus to the political apparatus of state to which they at least have a nominal obligation. I assumed,that eventually something fit for consumption would be concocted as a delightful cocktail of facts and surmises that might be "truthy" enough to satisfy the press, serve as a basis for some sort of crude remedy for the victims of this inter-apparatus dueling, and that would get the political branches and their claques off  the backs of the security apparatus and their dependent vassals.

I had assumed that this might have been accomplished as a result of the decision ot leak this technology to the proxy armies maintained by security apparatus and their State masters as they would inevitably have been the most likely players to get careless--or mouthy. That indeed, would have been the better option to get rid of this fiasco of managing the sort of collateral damage that its users and developers were now more willing to tolerate.  One could have blamed everything on rogue elements, paraded a few selected for sacrifice around, and then resolve to be more careful in the future. That, however, was not to be. For reasons that are well above my pay grade, and apparently far above the pay grade of the leading forces of the political branches in the United States, the security apparatus continues to believe that a mixture of gaslighting and obfuscation will still serve its purposes and get annoying people and institutions off their backs. 

Perhaps they are right. That, at any rate, appears to be the substance of the conclusion reached by Interim Report by Chairman Rick Crawford of the Subcommittee on the Central Intelligence Agency of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence U.S. House of Representatives. The Report, entitled, "Investigating the Intelligence Community’s Conclusions on Anomalous Health Incidents: Is the Intelligence Community Hiding the Real Reason for This Phenomenon?"is a tersely written none pages of frustration, one which neither Republican nor Democratic Administrations were at any pains to alleviate. Its contents suggest the problem: 

UNCLASSIFIED
3
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 1
Methodology .................................................................................................................................. 4
AHI: A Real Existential Threat to the IC Workforce ............................................................... 5
Overview ................................................................................................................................... 5
The NIC’s Updated Assessment of AHI .................................................................................. 6
IC Experts Panel........................................................................................................................ 6
Interim Findings............................................................................................................................ 8
Finding 1: The ICA on AHIs lacked analytic integrity and was highly irregular,
hindering the Subcommittee’s trust in the IC’s process and conclusions............................ 8
Finding 2: The IC’s response to AHIs has likely impeded collection. .................................. 8
Finding 3: Congress’s oversight and investigation must continue with support from the
Trump Administration. ............................................................................................................ 8
Interim Recommendations ........................................................................................................ 9
Recommendation 1: Implement changes to the IC’s analytic process. ................................ 9
Recommendation 2: AHI collection needs to be prioritized. ................................................. 9
Recommendation 3: Codify and establish clear, effective medical care, particularly long-
term care, for AHI-affected U.S. Government employees and their families...................... 9

And I think that is where the Americans will wnd up: (1) acceptance of the reality that the security services, when it matters to them, and protected by the administrative apparatus of the political branches, will be protected against disclosures (for national security purposes) of any detail of the programs or strategies connected to this, or other security related weapons apparatus; (2) the best that one can hope for, and this has proven to be a difficult task, is to seek some sort of remedy for its collateral damage--at least when they are US nationals  and more specifically when they are members of the governmental apparatus of the United States; (3) that remedy cannot and will not be connected in any material way to anything having to do with weapons and strategic deployments deemed essential to the missions or activities of the security services; and (4) independent research and advocacy will likely have to be well managed to avoid interfering with sensitive actions or technologies (though this will be more difficult as the science and information leakage increases). 

Beyond that there is little more than can or ought to be said.

The full Interim Report follows and may be accessed HERE. For commentary HERE.

Part 2--A Deeper Dive: Video--Mark Zaid and Rob "Butch" Bracknell on Anomalous Health Incidents (AKA Havana Syndrome): Joint meeting of the International Committee of the ABA Senior Lawyers Division (SLD) and the National Security Committee of the ABA International Law Section (ILS)

 

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The ABA Senior Lawyers Division (SLD) and the National Security Committee of the ABA International Law Section (ILS) recently hosted Mark Zaid and Rob "Butch" Bracknell for Part 2 of what is a fascinating discussion of the history of, legal status of, and issues surrounding what has come to be called "Havana Syndrome" but perhaps more accurately known as Anomalous Health Incidents. Great thanks to the remarkable Jonathan Meyer for chairing and organizing the event. For  this second part Mark Zaid and Rob "Butch" Bracknell go into a deeper dive of the injuries suffered, the technologies deployed, and applicable international law.  

If you missed the first part, discussion and links to the video of the event may be accessed here.

The event video was posted 6 August 2024. The VIDEO RECORDING of the presentation was just posted and may be accessed here. The TRANSCRIPT may be accessed  with the Video and follows below.

Speakers: Robert “Butch” Bracknell is a retired Marine officer who worked for 9 years as a NATO civilian at Allied Command Transformation before transitioning to private practice and consultancy. He has a JD from Maryland Law, an LLM from Harvard Law, and an MSc from the University of Oxford. He resides in Norfolk, Virginia. 

Mark S. Zaid is a Washington, D.C. national security attorney who has spent three decades handling cases involving classified information, security clearances, war crimes, terrorism and the Freedom of Information Act. He recently appeared as a witness before a Subcommittee of the House Homeland Security Committee on “Silent Weapons: Examining Foreign Anomalous Health Incidents Targeting Americans In The Homeland And Abroad”. He has a JD from Albany Law School and a BA from the University of Rochester. Moderator: Jonathan M. Meyer, Attorney at Law, ABA SLD International Committee Co-Chair, ABA International Law Section National Security Committee Co-Chair

The transcript follows below. My own earlier essays may be accessed here: Cuba Sonic Weapons Affair (43)

"HAVANA SYNDROME Better Patient Communication and Monitoring of Key DOD Tasks Needed to Better Ensure Timely Treatment

 

 

The use of sonic based or other technologies , for the moment likely primarily to access data rich devices but secondarily and i specific instance to injure targets has tended to be relegated to the forgettable by the media. The use and the threat of these technologies, however, are not dependent on press attention.  Though it appears that the response of the State to its victims--whether as targets or collateral damage--is.

It is in this light that a recent GA report may be worth reading:   HAVANA SYNDROME: Better Patient Communication and Monitoring of Key DOD Tasks Needed to Better Ensure Timely Treatment.

This report examines (1) the challenges AHI patients have faced accessing care in the MHS, (2) how DOD is facilitating AHI patients’ access to the MHS, and (3) the extent to which DOD has developed a registry to facilitate AHI research.

The highlights follow.

Intelligence Agit-Prop: Secret Signals: Decoding China’s Intelligence Activities in Cuba (July 1, 2024) a project of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Hidden Reach Special Initiative.

 

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There has been much discussion (off and on sadly) about all sorts of signals and wave related devises that appear to be doing a lot of damage to individuals as the security services toddlers play spy versus spy with collateral damage (see discussion here for example:Video--Mark Zaid and Rob "Butch" Bracknell on Anomalous Health Incidents (AKA Havana Syndrome): Joint meeting of the International Committee of the ABA Senior Lawyers Division (SLD) and the National Security Committee of the ABA International Law Section (ILS); more essays here: Cuba Sonic Weapons Affair). But beyond the theatrics of wave or beam or related devices, the day to day drudge work of eavesdropping continues. Cuba, cash starved, and starved as well for reliable (that is well heeled and militarily capable) allies has an asset worth selling related to this market for keeping tabs on "competitor" states--its proximity to the United States.

It ought to come as no surprise, then, that Cuban locations, long used by Cuba's former patron, the now dissolved Soviet Union (resurrected  as the Russian Federation at least in a somewhat less reliable spirit) are now available for rent or long tern lease to others. Those "others" and the facilities and technologies on offer, were nicely described for those of us without any access to state secrets, in the Report, Secret Signals: Decoding China’s Intelligence Activities in Cuba (July 1, 2024). Written by Matthew P. Funaiole, Aidan Powers-Riggs, Brian Hart, Henry Ziemer, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Ryan C. Berg, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, the Report is a project of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Hidden Reach Special Initiative. 

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The Report offers a non-secrets based glimpse at the architecture of Cuban-Chinese surveillance architectures in Cuba. There are several interesting points beyond the obvious (that is that (1) this is occurring; (2) that it may have effects on the US security architecture for among other establishments, SouthCom, especially in its Florida facilities bit likely all around the Gulf coast; and (3) the effects on ideological and propaganda warfare remains cloudy not because of their capacity to project but because their presence itself projects a narrative meant to disrupt and destabilize and weaken popular confidence). The facilities have been around for a while, their use by China has been known in some facilities since at least 1999, and the US has had plenty of time to apply countermeasures--which serves as a reminder that the careless empire tends to pay for that lapse in sometimes costly ways. Beyond that one can consider additional possibilities.

The first is the obvious--the facilities are obvious in the sense that there is no effort to hide them. Not that anyone can walk in, nor are they are of eco-walking tours of Cuba. But rather that China and Cuba (in this case) make no effort to hide them. Again the propaganda and narrative insertions value of that obviousness may be worth more than whatever surveillance they may be able to extract from these facilities.  Second, it is likely that these are limited use facilities in the sense that they are value adding rather than value creating facilities with respect to information harvesting. There is likely a bit of redundancy in the operations that one would expect from actors for which money would not be much of an object given the stakes and objectives of competition at the highest levels of Empire. True enough the spectacle of the Chinese balloons over North America provided a diversion, but there are other tried and true modalities that remain bedrock parts of the security apparatus and its projections abroad. Still there may be value added; the Report notes:

Collecting data on activities like military exercises, missile tests, rocket launches, and submarine maneuvers would allow China to develop a more sophisticated picture of U.S. military practices. While modern military communications are highly encrypted—meaning the contents of the messages and data are hidden—information on the frequency, origin, direction, and pace of communications traffic can provide significant intelligence value. Other types of data can be collected with less concern for encryption. Notably, ELINT and radar systems, like the one possibly installed at Bejucal in recent years, are within range to monitor rocket launches from Cape Canaveral and NASA’s Kennedy Space Center. (Secret Signals: Decoding China’s Intelligence Activities in Cuba )

The third is that these remain multi use facilities in a kind of odd way--one might imagine that the farming undertaken in many of these rural facilities is real enough (revealed by a look at the pictures in the Report); and that adds to both the casualness and the projection of power through carelessness inherent in the pictures published; they just don't care and can grow melons at the same time. Fourth, that propaganda value can work both ways, especially in an election year in which hard targets offer internally useful objects against which to project politics. Spy balloons and Cuban surveillance facilities  can be used to advantage. Fifth, one wonders about the connections between this and the broader issue of more aggressive measures long taken by security services (and likely others) against people or where people are damaged collaterally, the so-called anomalous health incidents. There probably isn't any, of course and the topic remains sensitive from all sides, and yet delivery modalities being what they are, the question lingers.  

And that leaves us with Cuba--again passive, in a kind of aggressive way. And protective, in the form of its choices of patrons in a climate in which it understands that its neighbor to the North still views its government as illegitimate and ripe for replacement. That is statecraft and politics, of course. But it does have consequences.  And these consequences are not amenable to the warm embrace of a presidential visit. Calculation all around. Some of it semiotically concrete--in the form of these monuments to power relationships; and virtual, in the form of the harvesting of data in facilitates from which produce and other edibles are also harvested. The connection is irresistible--as propaganda. And indeed perhaps the greatest utility of all of this theater is in its agit-prop (agitation propaganda) now unmoored from its traditional location in the arts and the art of literary performative propaganda: certainly if these facilities were actually able to produce value added intelligence, one might  want to have engage those responsible for countermeasures more directly. But the presence of the facilities themselves produces value, not for what they do but for what they signal about projections of power from one empire deep into the spece of its rival:

Beijing has clear political and ideological motivations to keep afloat one of the world’s few remaining Communist Party–led governments. Yet its interests there are also clearly strategic. China’s ambitions to expand its overseas military presence are well documented, and Cuba provides an attractive foothold for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the Caribbean. An unclassified assessment by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence released in February 2024 lists Cuba as one of several countries where China is looking to establish military installations.  Cuba is currently embroiled in its worst economic crisis since the fall of the Soviet Union, and Havana is in desperate need of external assistance. China has emerged as a critical lifeline, providing billions in debt relief and direct assistance in recent years. (Secret Signals: Decoding China’s Intelligence Activities in Cuba )

That said, the fact that someone went to the trouble of performing agitation propaganda does not mean one ought to sit and watch the show. That recourse, of course, poses the greater danger of this theater than the theater itself.

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The Report is well worth reading. Please ACCESS HERE.

Video--Mark Zaid and Rob "Butch" Bracknell on Anomalous Health Incidents (AKA Havana Syndrome): Joint meeting of the International Committee of the ABA Senior Lawyers Division (SLD) and the National Security Committee of the ABA International Law Section (ILS)

 

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The ABA Senior Lawyers Division (SLD) and the National Security Committee of the ABA International Law Section (ILS) recently hosted Mark Zaid and Rob "Butch" Bracknell who spoke about the history of, legal status of, and issues surrounding what has come to be called "Havana Syndrome" but perhaps more accurately known as Anomalous Health Incidents. Great thanks to the remarkable Jonathan Meyer for chairing and organizing the event. Fascinating program for those interested in both the technology aspects, and the legal/political aspects (much of it arguably quite frustrating from a variety of perspectives, though perhaps not unexpectedly so) .

The event was held 26 June 2024. The VIDEO RECORDING of the presentation was just posted and may be accessed here. The TRANSCRIPT may be accessed  with the Video and follows below. 

The ABA  SLD AND ILS describe the event this way:  

Mark Zaid and Rob "Butch" Bracknell address the joint meeting of the International Committee of the ABA Senior Lawyers Division (SLD) and the National Security Committee of the ABA International Law Section (ILS) on Anomalous Health Incidents (sometimes referred to by the media as "Havana Syndrome"). Their comments are premised on the presumption that AHIs are caused by a malign state based capability being deliberately applied against American human targets in various overseas and domestic locations. 

They will discuss the evidence underlying the presumption, the standards for "internationally wrongful acts,” possible treaty violations, and the measures a state may take under international law in response. They will also examine the responsibility of USG to protect US personnel from attacks by foreign actors, and the extent to which USG may have failed to do so, including complicity in obscuring the truth. 

Our speakers will also take a brief look at whether US citizens acting under the scope of federal employment (diplomats, intelligence personnel, military) maintain a private right of action against a foreign sovereign in US courts, and will analogize law by analogy to determine at what point the attacks might rise to a level of "armed attack" sufficient to trigger a state's right to self defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter. 

 Speakers: 

Robert “Butch” Bracknell is a retired Marine officer who worked for 9 years as a NATO civilian at Allied Command Transformation before transitioning to private practice and consultancy. He has a JD from Maryland Law, an LLM from Harvard Law, and an MSc from the University of Oxford. He resides in Norfolk, Virginia. 

Mark S. Zaid is a Washington, D.C. national security attorney who has spent three decades handling cases involving classified information, security clearances, war crimes, terrorism and the Freedom of Information Act. He recently appeared as a witness before a Subcommittee of the House Homeland Security Committee on “Silent Weapons: Examining Foreign Anomalous Health Incidents Targeting Americans In The Homeland And Abroad”. He has a JD from Albany Law School and a BA from the University of Rochester.

  Links mentioned in recording: 

A. 60 Minutes episode (full episode):   • Havana Syndrome evidence suggests who...   

B. 60 Minutes episode (transcript): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/havana-s... 

C. Congressional hearing video: https://homeland.house.gov/hearing/si... 

D. Written testimony of the witnesses, including Mark Zaid's: https://homeland.house.gov/wp-content... 

E. This unclassified NSA document given to Mark Zaid in 2014 is, in his view, incredible. Remember, this is pre-Havana:   / 1  

 

The transcript follows below. My own earlier essays may be accessed here: Cuba Sonic Weapons Affair (43)

The Semiotic Theater that is Havana Syndrome: Reports From Center Stage

 

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 It has been a while since I turned my attention to Havana Syndrome. See essays here: Cuba Sonic Weapons Affair (41). Early on I predicted the way that this was going to run its course--because all parties have something to conceal, and because it impacts on weapons and strategic developments, as well as entanglements about which most of us (including me have no real idea), it would be necessary to find a way to distract attention, mitigate losses and move the discussion elsewhere. 

What is clear, though, is that the public discourse around the Sonic Weapons attacks, and the private realities that appear to have gotten well ahead of the ability of the state security apparatus to manage its narrative to advantage, are neither aligned, nor do they seem to be heading anywhere in the direction of consensus within the governments of liberal democratic states. Elsewhere the narrative of simple--continue to expand, develop and deploy this technology, and deny its existence, to blame those who complain of the effects on its interest. This has been effective--especially for the battalions of those in the West desperately willing to believe. The rest appears to be gesture. What remains, and what one can continue to expect (while things are moving behind the scenes) is more confusion and a bit of managed suppression. (The Affair of the Sonic Weapons Attack: Lurching Forward in Congress But Going Nowhere 1 May 2021).

That continues to be the strategy, or so recent events suggest. Now, though, it is spiced with the theatrics of push back from some in the political classes, though, in the end, that will be well curated stage craft as well. The difficulty here (at least with respect to clarity) remains complicated by two foundational issues: (1) the wrong questions are likely being asked and also being precisely answered (a neat but ultimately annoying ploy); and (2) it may not be possible to formulate the right questions (which, in turn produce larger questions of accountability and integrity. These two issues fall well above the competence of most people. And thus we must be satisfied with the next act in the staging of the Havana Syndrome.

1. On 1 March 2023, the National Intelligence Council issued its Report: Updated Assessment of Anomalous Health Incidents. The unclassified report by the Intelligence Community can be found here. 

Seven intelligence agencies participated in the review, with most concluding it was “very unlikely” that a foreign adversary was responsible. Officials told the Washington Post they did not believe the syndrome was intentionally caused through a directed energy weapon or as a byproduct of some other activity like electronic surveillance. (‘Something Happened Here’: Rubio Skeptical of Intel Absolving Foreign Adversaries of ‘Havana Syndrome’ Allegations)

The Report is a pretty object. It was deliberately crafted to be pretty--its visual semiotics are meant to convey the weightiness of the issue and the extent to which it was taken seriously by a community that was then reluctantly forced to react the greater part of its efforts. That is, it is an object that is more significant for the artistry of the elaborate and gaudy redactions, than it is for whatever text managed to reveal as it was permitted to seep out from between those madcap obliterations. Compare the State Department Report of 2020 (The Affair of the Sonic Weapons Attack: Digesting the Long (Long) Awaited and Ably Curated State Department Report: "An Assessment of Illness in U.S. Government Emloyees and Their Families at Overseas Embassies"). Nit that this is bad. . . . or good.  It is theater designed visually to convey meaning beyond text--earnestness, the seriousness of the effort, trustworthiness, thoroughness, etc. The visual signalling here takes center sage.

2. The reaction of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence was not entirely supportive (Himes and Turner Respond to “Havana Syndrome” Report by Intelligence Community). Its carefully crafted and deliberately enigmatic statement included the following:

As the Committee further reviews the intelligence community’s work, we remain committed to four core principles.

“First, there can be no backsliding in the care and support we provide to our workforce. Congress enacted the HAVANA Act to expand benefits for those who have experienced AHIs, and we are closely monitoring that process to ensure it proceeds in accordance with the intent of the law.

“Second, there should be no change to processes established within the IC, the State Department, the Department of Defense, and elsewhere in the federal government to intake AHI reports, conduct the appropriate follow-on investigations, and direct individuals to care and support. Those who have come forward—as they were asked to do—should be treated with respect and they should be heard.

“Third, the investigation of AHIs has led to significant new focus in understanding the potential dangers and evolving challenges faced by the men and women of the Intelligence Community, the Department of Defense, and other agencies. That work should continue, recognizing that these challenges will endure.

“Finally, the Committee expects Intelligence Community leadership to continue to assess the causes of these incidents, collect reports, and to modify its conclusions as appropriate on the basis of any new evidence or analysis.”

3. Marco Rubio (R Fla) remains skeptical and will project that skepticism through the oversight capacity of the Senate. A relevant part of the Statement he released noted:

• "As I have said before, something happened here and just because you don’t have all the answers, doesn’t mean that it didn’t happen. I will not accept that all these reported cases were just coincidences and I will continue to work on this issue until we receive real explanations. 
• "The Senate Intelligence Committee will continue our ongoing independent review on AHIs and take steps to ensure that those officers affected by AHIs are receiving immediate and comprehensive care as required by law.”

4.  "Drs Denise Baken and James Giordano discuss the scientific, technological, patient-centered and military implications and issues of the recently released Intelligence report on Havana Syndrome. Dr. Giordano, who served as a consulting forensic neuroscientist on the investigation of the original patients working at the US Embassy in Havana, discusses the questions raised by the report, in light of the investigations and analyses conducted to date." (Havana Syndrome: Bouncing the Reality Check? (Institute for Biodefense Research)).

The Updated Assessment of Anomalous Health Incidents follows below. 

The Affair of the Sonic Weapons Attack: Lurching Forward in Congress But Going Nowhere

 

Pix Credit: A Comprehensive List of All the Potential Causes of the Cuban “Sonic” Attacks

 

A recent statement issued by the (bi-partisan) chair and vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee suggests that there is now some more public movement. 

Statement of Senate Intel Chair Warner & Vice Chair Rubio
Apr 30 2021

WASHINGTON – Today, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Mark R. Warner (D-VA) and Vice Chairman Marco Rubio (R-FL) released a statement regarding the investigation into attacks on U.S. personnel in Havana and elsewhere:

“For nearly five years, we have been aware of reports of mysterious attacks on United States Government personnel in Havana, Cuba and around the world. This pattern of attacking our fellow citizens serving our government appears to be increasing. The Senate Intelligence Committee intends to get to the bottom of this. We have already held fact finding hearings on these debilitating attacks, many of which result in medically confirmed cases of Traumatic Brain Injury, and will do more.

“As the Chairman and Vice Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, we welcome CIA Director Burns’ renewed focus on these attacks. Our committee will continue to work with him, and the rest of the Intelligence Community, to better understand the technology behind the weapon responsible for these attacks. We will focus on ensuring we protect our personnel and provide the medical and financial support the victims deserve. Ultimately we will identify those responsible for these attacks on American personnel and will hold them accountable.”

There is a backstory, the politics of which tell one much about the way the political and establishment communities tend to advance weaponry and manage official responses.  That follows.  For the genesis of this story, please follow my posts at Cuba Sonic Weapons Affair.  What is clear, though, is that the public discourse around the Sonic Weapons attacks, and the private realities that appear to have gotten well ahead of the ability of the stare security apparatus to manage its narrative to advantage, are neither aligned, nor do they seem to be heading anywhere in the direction of consensus within the governments of liberal democratic states. Elsewhere  the narrative of simple--continue to expand, develop and deploy this technology, and deny its existence, to blame those who complain of the effects on its interest. This has been effective--especially for the battalions of those in the West desperately willing to believe. The rest appears to be gesture. What remains, and what one can continue to expect (while things are moving behind the scenes) is more confusion and a bit of managed suppression.

The Affair of the Sonic Weapons Attack: Digesting the Long (Long) Awaited and Ably Curated State Department Report: "An Assessment of Illness in U.S. Government Emloyees and Their Families at Overseas Embassies"

Sally Rand, 'Fan Dance' 1942

It has been quite some time since I considered the ongoing and slow motion--and well curated--theatre that has been the search for the causes of so-called Havana Syndrome (last discussion at The Affair of the Sonic Weapons Attack: The Mystery that is at its Most Useful When it Remains Unresolved).  I noted then (in connection with the release, again well curated, of certain UK diplomatic cables) that this Affair of the Sonic Weapons Attack:

 suggests a mystery wrapped around what everyone is sniffing around--that the protagonists in this Affair appear to be beyond the reach, including the reach of the state security services--of key actors at the center of the action. It is quite likely that the usual suspects are not worthy of much attention, and everyone else is beyond reach. So one might be left with the contemplation of a black box, the contours of which can only be discerned by the effects it has when it projects activity outward. We are likely to see that in the future, but connecting the dots may be harder. This is not to pander to conspiracy theories, but rather to acknowledge that that institutionalization of power may not be as transparent or exercised from places that one might expect.

 

The Trump Administration had promised some sort of explanation, and after several efforts, some connected to the state, others free lance or connected to other actors, the long awaited report prepared for the Department of State has been released. The Report, An Assessment of Illness in U.S. Government Employees and Their Families at Overseas Embassies, was released to the public  in the first week of December 2020 and may be downloaded for free from THIS SITE.  The Report was edited by  by David A. Relman and Julie A. Pavlin for the Standing Committee to Advise the Department of State on Unexplained Health Effects on U.S. Government Employees and Their Families at Overseas Embassies and is styled a Consensus Study Report of the National Academies of Sciences (eg one that documents "the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts)", Engineering and Medicine. The Standing Committee was charged generally to "provide a forum for discussion of scientific, technical, and social issues relevant to effective health management and protection of staff and family members assigned to overseas locations. (Standing Committee to Advise the Department of State). 

The popular press response was predictable, both in its conventionally respectable and its tabloid forms, though the tabloid forms are always the more provocative reads. Yet in this case the rports are remarkably similar, and in both cases quite restrained.  The Daily Mail (beyond its usual screeching headline) notes only: "The mysterious symptoms American spies and diplomats in Cuba and China have suffered could be due to a directed microwave energy, says a new report by the National Academies of Sciences. The new report, which has been obtained by NBC News, does not explicitly say that the microwaves were deployed intentionally as a weapon, but does not rule that possibility out. Medical and scientific experts from the Academies of Sciences studied 40 State Department employees and noted that no similar symptoms had previously been recorded in medical literature." (Mysterious neurological symptoms suffered by American spies and diplomats in Cuba and China - dubbed 'Havana Syndrome' - could be the result of a microwave energy weapon, says new report). NBC News noted "The report, obtained Friday by NBC News, does not conclude that the directed energy was delivered intentionally, by a weapon, as some U.S. officials have long believed. But it raises that disturbing possibility." (Havana Syndrome' likely caused by pulsed microwave energy, government study finds). See also BBC; the Guardian; .  Interestingly the Report from outside the West was more pointed. The India Express noted "By calling it “directed” and “pulsed” energy, the report leaves no room for confusion that the victims’ exposure was targeted and not due to common sources of microwave energy, such as, a mobile phone. The report also mentions that the immediate symptoms that patients reported — including sensations of pain and buzzing sound — apparently emanated from a particular direction, or occurred in a specific spot in a room." (Explained: What is ‘Havana Syndrome’, what does the latest report say about the mysterious illness?). And the New York Times considered the consequences of whatever narrative would be built around the Committee Report  in the usual dismissive tones it has adopted since 2016 and will likely abandon after January 2021 ("For the Trump administration, acknowledging that the incidents were the result of a foreign attack could have necessitated evacuating American missions in China, disrupting an important economic relationship. The administration did take a harder approach in Cuba, which aligned with its larger goal of reversing President Barack Obama’s diplomatic opening with Havana.").

There were two sentences in the report worth noting, which follows without comment: "The committee is left with a number of concerns. First, even though it was not in a position to assess or comment on how these DOS cases arose, such as a possible source of directed, pulsed RF energy and the exact circumstances of the putative exposures, the mere consideration of such a scenario raises grave concerns about a world with disinhibited malevolent actors and new tools for causing harm to others, as if the U.S. government does not have its hands full already with naturally occurring threats." (An Assessment of Illness in U.S. Government Employees and Their Families at Overseas Embassies, p. xi).

Faith Bacon, 'Dance of Shame' 1942

And that leads to the only point I will make here:  It s clear that there is a race among states to exploit advances in technology.  And what better than the sort of weapon that can disable or kill an enemy without disturbing the property or terrain that is the object of conflict.  More importantly most states now realize (conformed by the fiascos of American 20th century police actions in the Middle East and Central Asia) that the era of large armies projecting strength may be giving way in most ordinary actions (exceptions of course include invasions of claimed territories and the like) to quite targeted projections of lethal force.  And where that projection can be undertaken from a distance (the pioneering American approach) or with tech that treats an individual perhaps like a piece of chicken in a microwave machine) the fighting, then the cost of conflict goes down (for the moment) and its value increases (provocatively here). More importantly such a movement parallels moments on that other theatre of warfare--economic warfare through targeted sanctions regimes--Global Magnitsky in the United States and the European Union version about to be rolled out. In this context resolution becomes politically unpalatable--not because of a lack of feeling for those who have been the subject of the cynical experiments and dueling among the states with a stake in these technologies and their refinement--to the credit of none of them. I suspect this is as good as the public will get--and we are lucky to get even this fan dance.  Even the Committee that produced this report was allowed a quite limited access ("much of the detail and many of the investigations performed by others were not available to it, either because they are classified for reasons of national security or restricted for other reasons").

Make no mistake: sonic and microwave weaponry (so-called) are here and here to stay.  That no one wants to acknowledge their existence, or the desire to produce a wide variety of these tools for everything from the control of the masses, to mass surveillance, to offensive and defensive uses in conflict (either external or internal) speaks both to their power and the delicate stage of development in of these tools. The pity is that states are being secretive and their connection to the law-state tenuous. This is in turn a problem that presents differently in liberal democratic and Marxist Leninist states each seeking global moral authority and legitimacy in exercising (sometimes destructive) power. The greater pity is what these weapons suggest about the ordering of society.  One learns a great deal about the underlying principles of actual social organization by the kind and use of the tools used to manage people--individuals and collectives.  And sonic and microwave weaponry tell us that society must be managed; that social collectives are commodities necessary for the production of social ordering, that this social ordering is grounded on stability and productivity.  These devices (weapons when used offensively against other collectives, though it is not clear that there is a consensus on the nomenclature for these devices and many uses) are in turn an essential component in the larger toolkit of managerialism (in domestic and international) ordering.  That is what is slowly emerging.  Combined with big data analytics these devices might have utility for all sorts of purposes, only some of which cause injury and death. "Reading from a script, Indian CDS General Bipin Rawat commented, “Non-contact warfare will help us in gaining advantage over the adversary in future. Therefore, it is important to understand the context in which we need to move forward in this direction...Quantum technology, cyberspace and above all artificial intelligence, all these need to be leveraged”." (Sixth generation warfare).

 

To understand  both it and the secrecy surrounding it, one strong enough to tempt both Democratic and Republican Administrations to tolerate the sacrifice of diplomatic personnel and others in the testings and deployments of prototypes and scalable versions of what may be rolled out,, it may be necessary to understand better the emerging forms of 6th generation warfare.  6GW:

leverages sophisticated technology to manipulate space and time. . .  Just understand that in 6GW, we are getting inside our enemy’s OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act). Once inside, we can control what they see and hear, what they think, what they decide, and what they do, all to our advantage. .  . . Meanwhile, let's consider what Sun Tzu teaches:"Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness. Thereby you can be the director of the opponent’s fate."(Sixth generation warfare: manipulating space and time)

6GW makes little distinction between offensive and defensive between weapons that disrupt economies, information flows, or the physical functioning of the human capital of opponents (whether domestic or foreign). As part of a toolkit of rewards and punishments in domestic and international affairs they will likely offer substantial new options that at once avoid the controversies of old fashioned warfare and conflict management.  But they do that by avoiding the conversation int he first place. There is much more to come.

The Report reface and Summary follow.