The events that produce anniversaries like this ought not to to have occurred. But they did. And so did its consequences. The last two years has seen a transformative deployment of resources and experimentation but all sorts of groups in the art of war, the power of mass management in liberal democracies, the power of migration (and sometimes simultaneous) as a positive and as an evil force, and the efforts to use the conflict to reshape the way in which war is understood, legalized, and its actors punished for failing to adhere to behavior expectations. Most importantly, the last two years has witnessed the evolution of a most extraordinary manifestation of a political and normative project, one the focus of which is to allocate risk in war, and a responsibility for its prevention, mitigation, and remediation. In the process it appears to have, at least where it concerns the Jes, to have produced an embrace of the notion that wars are effectively unwinnable, that ceasefire arrangements can serve as the avatars of peace, that peace itself is understood merely as a pause between periods of violence, and that the object of the international community is to manage these cycles and ensure that they remain contained to defined theaters of violence. The object of ceasefire, then, is not peace--understood as a long term goal with characteristics of a stable equilibrium state--but rather the cessation of violence as an unstable episode between stable states of violence, the management and containment of which can be rationalized through law.
One is reminded here--and in the Ukrainian situation--not of the rhetoric and idealization of peace post-1945 (the second effort at a war to end all wars, perhaps, in a century notable fpr its warring spirit), but rather the realities of ceasefire during the course of the Spanish Reconquista, but this time with two equally determined forces of reconquest, each backed by powerful outsiders who have, in a sense, as much at stake as their avatars of violence whose blood fuels these stable periods of war, with breaks for consolidation of victory, replenishment of combatants and manipulation of the larger forces of empire swirling around their project. These projects thrive on the art of attrition through narratives of peace that produce the cover of "ceasing" fire permitting regrouping both on the front and among all of the players who view the action, in the long term (measured in centuries) through the metrics of the4ir own obsessions with religious climax, ethno-pandering, and the lust to accelerate what is viewed as the determinism of human and other divine imperatives--plus it doesn't hurt to through several millennia of organized Jew hatred/tolerance, as a religious, social, economic, and cultural matter (something apparently quite easy to learn). And thus the map. The only question is whether one will, through iterations of cease fire achieve a Jew Free Palestine from the river to the sea or the establishment of a Jewish multi-cultural/ethnic/religious enclave, the operation of which remains a mystery.
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Yet that is hardly the most interesting element of change bought with the blood of locals at the hands of those who can make at least some of them passive instruments of their ambitions and those who back them from afar for their own problematic ends. The “Reconquista” trope is hardly new; and its direction—just which “empire” is seeking to “reconquer” whom, remains contested. People seem to enjoy the delicious irony of the Jews as an imperial power; they appear to delight more on the facilitation of the expansion of some modern version of some sort of rump ethno-infused the dar al Islam in its more ancient forms of absorption. And it is a trope of derision—something one accuses one’s enemy of attempting in order to veil the identical effort of one’s own. The tactic requires both the control of the meaning of the term, its value (good or bad), and the ability to naturalize both within a target population especially in liberal democratic states.
Ceasefire is especially powerful in a global conceptual environment grounded in risk avoidance and organized within sequential blocks of transactions. From the conceptual vantage point of “transactional” reality, the ceasefire itself—and the mechanics for getting to ceasefire, perform the most vitally central element of a transactional mindset, or rather of a mindset the cognitive realities of which can only be understood or perceived as organized transactions in time that then produce ort set up other transactional situations. Peace is a collective state of being, ceasefire , in the sense of a conditional cessation of violence in return for objects and actions of interest to the parties within the risk constraints within which the transaction is negotiated. Once the transaction is accomplished, its sequential interlude state—reralized as a period marked by no major organized violence directed by and between the parties to the transaction—can be maintained until action is required to move to the next ceasefire transaction state, one intended to bring either of both parties closer to their longed for state of being.
But that is not the point—the point—that is the point of transformation—exists at that spot where the concept of peace merges with that of ceasefire. If the object of all efforts to halt violent organized hostility, then one acquires very little indeed that goes to the notion of peace as the stable state of pacific relations the dividing points of which are physical, economic, cultural, religious, political, and social borders. Or better put one acquires a specific set of results the objects of which might not be compatible with peace. First, one acquires a breathing space from violence. One can do with and in those spaces whatever one likes—from instilling hatred to using that space-time to better prepare for the next round of violence. The later, of course involves non-violent field operations—cyber ops, destabilization, and the construction of narratives and the values and premises underlying them that tends to paint one a saint and the other the manifestation of the legion of evil incarnate, and with that agit-prop. One insinuates oneself within the ruling apparatus of engaged peripheral states (especially where the political classes are not interested either in changing sides or the nature of their relationship with the enemy)—public intellectuals, academics, the legacy press but especially the young. Etc., Its tactics are well known, tolerated and even celebrated as somehow different and better than violence though they are meant to lead to the same conclusion. That, in turn, suggests that as long as one does not violate bodies, one can harm minds and perceptions to produce a victory without organized state based military violence, There will still be blood—but the bandits and “lone wolf” types that are easy enough to embed within ordinary patterns of social violence or made a part, particularly effective in transitioning societies, of the discourse of structural “badness” in a targeted society. All of this; and ceasefire too! That is the spirit of Reconquista. This is all a great pity. One ought to strive for the cessation of hostilities; one ought to aim for peace as the stable equilibrium state. Violence in the long run negatively impacts the human condition; the problem is that this is true but not always, and our ability to try to distinguish produces its own tragedy—as well as the shrug of the shoulder and the push for cessation—the glory of transaction when the manifestation of peace becomes impossible.
Nonetheless, the Reconquista spirit of ceasefire, in the longer run, may not be the most valuable transformation that the global engagement of this sort produces. The most interesting aspect of what the post 7 October world has produced for itself touches on some of the ways in which one allocates risk, liability, and behavior expectations in organized violent conflict. Much of this revolves around the concept of civilian and the responsibility for keeping civilian populations “safe.”
1. Who are civilians? The question has become an important one though, given the war of pictures in the recent conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, one that has been sidetracked by its own imagery. Since the middle 20th century the global order has stubbornly refused to confront the fundamental dialectic of violent conflict—the (a) apotheosis of the sanctity of civilians (either as assets that require preserving for exploitation by the victors or as those who have no direct interest in the conflict which their representatives and leaders wage) embedded in law and normative cognitive cages of social values, and at the same time (b) the equally impassioned apotheosis of total war and with it the notion that there are no civilians ion war (everyone is either a resistance fighter or a collaborator; everyone contributes to the war effort on the front and behind the lines of battle). While these are not necessarily incompatible, they do complicate the calculus of the “civilian” in violence. Legal systems, as always, solve the problems of the last large violent conflict and have little value for the way that social collectives evolve, including the evolution of the role of civilians in war, or against it.
And there is a bit of hypocrisy in the issue as well. For decades Hamas has taken the position that there are no civilians in its war against the Jews, apostates, heretics, and infidels occupying a territory that must be purified of their contamination. Party of the problem, for decades, has been the racism and ethno-chauvinism of the developed States eager to treat this as the acting out of infants who merely need education (capacity building) in order to be civilized. The error has been compounded when, taking Hamas at its conceptual word, the Israeli’s treat civilians as combatants instrumental in the Hamas war effort—from hiding hostages to serving as human shields—and are treated as uncivilized barbarians and fundamental law breakers for assuming the impossible—that a large civilian population can be complicit in the actions of the military wing of their military, ort to put it differently, that the difference between civilian and combatant becomes irreconcilable with the definitions created in and as law of another era. In thagt context, law ceases to be a n expression in command form of a norm and instead assumers its role, nicely evidenced since 7 October, ad an instrument in the arsenal of those whose preference is either ceasefire by any means, or to in aid of Hamas.
2. Counting civilians?
Accounting for the dead has become a political enterprise in number of respects.
First, it serves to aid the construction of narratives of civilian death barbarity. It becomes a ritualized drumbeat in the press organs the sympathies of which appear to have become fairly clear. Numbers have played an essential role in the management of popular opinion in war since the 19th century. It has become increasingly a tool of the propaganda and destabilization wings of states over the last century. And it appear to be quite effective.
Second, its labeling, untested and certainly not reviewed, serves to launder causality categories to aid in the propaganda wars. This returns us first to the “who is a combatant/who is a civilian” issue. But it does more, it provides a space within which traditional combatants can be added to the figures of the dead to buttress the work of the propaganda department. With no accountability and a desperate willingness to believe “numbers” as having some sort of unalterable “truth” the value of such counting could become immense.
Third, it empowers the “counters,” in this case the Hamas Health Ministry whose chief competence appears to be in counting he dead almost in real time. The counting then serves other purposes, principally, it might seem, to show solidarity with one side and complicity in delegitimating the other. All of this is fair in war. Yuet it is the cluelessness of those who appear to be reporting rather than facilitating the propaganda efforts of one or another side that has become the hallmark of systems of accounting, the legitimacy of which will remain clouded in strategic considerations.
Fourth, counting is selective. One counts civilians, especially children and women, of course—though there is again a hypocrisy treating women both as worthy of serving combat and at the same time as delicate gender based creatures incapable of action and needy of additional protection. That is another dialectic that remains to be considered other than as a strategically useful tool drawing on old prejudices to good effect for Hamas. One does not count others: summary execution of collaborators; LGBTQ+ community members; civilians performing work for combatants, corruption chains for aid and relief. One could go on But that’s the point.
3. Accounting for civilians?
Human shields had tended to be considered a negative impact on civilians in times of violent conflict. That says little, though, about who ought to bear responsibility for their death and injury in combat. Putting aside the question of facilitation, engagement and complicity that complicates the status, “civilian,” one still must consider the question of who is to be held accountable for their deaths ort injury. For most of the world the answer is horribly mindless: while the use of civilians as human shields is to be deplored, the crime of being deplorable is not actionable in law, though one may no longer be invited to important dinners, ort dinners with important people. On the other hand, those who seek to engage combatants through human shield bear the full responsibility for the deaths of those shields, irrespective of the lengths to which they seek to minimize harm. One ought to be horrified by the thoughtlessness with which this all to easy approach has been embraced by elites in and out of the conflict.
The ease with which states have conceded a right to use human shields by shifting responsibility for their casualty to those seeking to engage the forces that hide behind (or beneath or around) them suggest either a mindlessness that is perplexing, or an agenda that dare not speak its name. Otherwise it seems clear that all of the great powers ought to be building their military installations beneath Churches, cities and other centers of population or culture. But surely that cannot be so. And yet here we are. Perhaps Secretary of State Marco Rubio was right to suggest that there ought to be a prosecution for genocide, but that it is Hamas that ought to stand accused. Global elites are not in a mood for that sort of discussion.
Of course all of this is wrongheaded. People who know better know that the Jews are committing genocide; that the Jews are responsible for aid not reaching civilians, that UN institutions haver not been corrupted and infiltrated by combatant operatives, that the Jews have no business protecting other religious minorities in the region, that they have misbehaved and require punishment for becoming the monsters that murdered most of them in the 1940s in Europe and then the other monsters who made life “uncomfortable” for the remnant that survived, etc. Perhaps it is best if Jews learned to behave themselves, and thus well behaved, could remain in polite society and under the watchful eyes of others, permitted to participate in political, economic, social and cultural life. Perhaps they also ought to pay some sort of annoyance tax as well for the effort. Jews as the always movable perpetual dhimmis would make it easier to produce e a Jew free Israel-Judea-Palestine. Otherwise, it appears, that the lesson of 7 October is clear—the periodic sacrifice of the Jew, heretic, infidel, apostate is the necessary price for a Jewish population insistent on inhabiting Israel.
These, indeed, might be thoughts that might cross the minds of those mourning the events of 7 October.Yet none of this matters. Popular positions have hardened. The time for conceptual debates has passed. The success of the propaganda wars has produced a victory that diminishes whatever was accomplished on the ground. Israel will be punished, and with them the Jews. Israel itself has appeared to have produced something of an astonishing transformation in the status of the Jew in global society; the success of that transformation might well be measured by the length of the indictments of the State in the ICC. That itself has caused In the process the more important task of sorting between excess and tragedy will likely be lost. But that appears to be the nature of war; and of ceasefire. And that is the greater pity.