This new engagement with countries across the world is not only an economic necessity – but a message to the world. It is Europe's response to rising global competition. We want more cooperation with all who are open for it. And this of course includes our closest partners. I think, of course, of the United States of America.* * * A lot is at stake for both sides. So our first priority will be to engage early, discuss common interests, and be ready to negotiate. We will be pragmatic, but we will always stand by our principles to protect our interests and uphold our values – that is the European way. (Remarks of Ursula von der Leyen)
Ursula von der Leyen is no stranger to the WEF; nor has she been reluctant to strongly describe a vision for Europe and European leadership that leverages both its culture and practices as they have emerged after 1945. In 2024, von der Leyen offered trust in a techno-bureaucracy guiding a rationalized process embedding normatively infused values. This techno-bureaucracy interlinked with apparatus of political, social and economic collectives within an accountability based system of oversight and compliance grounded in the objective of realizing public policy (President von der Leyen establishes fourteen Project Groups to deliver on political priorities). Its signature product of the last several years was the construction of a layered set of comprehensive regulatory systems which are now in the process of "simplification" and alignment.
The EU plans to re-open the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CS3D), the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and the Taxonomy, opening the door for all three to be revised. Speaking at a press conference on a different topic earlier this month, Ursula von der Leyen said the European Commission would propose an omnibus legislation in a bid to “reduce bureaucracy [and] reduce reporting burdens”. An omnibus is a rarely-used instrument that uses a single piece of legislation to amend multiple EU laws. (here; Budapest Declaration 11-2024 here; von der Leyen Political Guidelines here)
Of course simplification has becme more than that--it has become a vehicle for the rethinking and perhaps substantive revision of these regulations as well (see, here).
It is this project--the European vision for ordering itself and at least that potion of the world (or its pathways to production)--which now appears challenged internally by key stakeholders, and externally by a trio of threats. The first is that of the United States which has embarked far more aggressively on a different path toward the management of economic and social relations. That was made clear by Mr. Trump at Davos, and elsewhere). The second is that of the Chinese whose own Marxist-Leninist world view threatens the breadth of the influence of Europe and its normative projects both on the European periphery and along its production chains. And the third is the threat that Russia poses to and as Europe, a point stressed from the Ukrainian perspective by President Zelenskyy at Davos).
It is to the exposition and defense of the European project--as it is to be further developed under her leadership--that President von der Leyen spoke to in her Davos remarks (Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum), the text of which follows below with my brief reflections.
1. von der Leyen starts with a bit of nostalgia for what was within grasp and is now lost, perhaps irrevocably.
The first quarter of the century has come to an end. And it has brought about a sea-change in global affairs. This century started with great expectations. 25 years ago, the era of hyperglobalisation was nearing its peak. As supply chains went global, hundreds of millions of people were being lifted out of poverty, especially in India and China. * * * The global economy reaped the dividends. And here in Davos, world leaders discussed how global cooperation, and technology could help the fight against poverty and disease. It was the promise of a more integrated and cooperative world. 25 years on, has this promise been fulfilled? Yes, the world today is still nearly as connected as ever. But it has also started fracturing along new lines. * * * The cooperative world order we imagined 25 years ago has not turned into reality. Instead, we have entered a new era of harsh geostrategic competition.(Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum)
It is this idea, once nearly realized, as serves as the lodestar of the European project--and that project's burden. It is a burden that situates the European uniquely between the eagle, the dragon, and the bear.
2. What is the nature of that burden, and the unique perspective that Europe might bring to the table? Ursula von der Leyen suggests both. The burden is a consequence of fracture--and from fracture a turning away from the convergence based rules based and normatively congruent system of economic and social relations. In place of state based labor and functional specialization within an increasingly singular global system of production, the break up of that system in to at least two major subsystems created the context in which retreat from the ideal of the vision for a one world order at the turn of the century. "As this competition intensifies, we will likely continue to see frequent use of economic tools, such as sanctions, export controls, and tariffs, that are intended to safeguard economic and national security." (
Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum). The irony, of course, is the Europe itself has been no slouch when it comes to deploying these tools. But that is the point--that current conditions make such use of these instruments compelling suggests the contours of the problem which is left for Europe to solve--or at least to show the way forward, to bring the global community back to its golden age. "Because it is in no one's interest, to break the bonds in the global
economy. Rather we need to modernise the rules to sustain our ability to
produce mutual gain for our citizens." (
Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum). And there is a the first point--what
Mr. Trump in his remarks described as the fundamental characteristics of a new golden age, Presidentvon der Leyen described as the end of that golden age.
3. What then, as Mr. Lenin once asked of what becomes a class of professional revolutionaries, what is to be done? Like the Chinese are attempting with their own vision for the future as a forward movement wrapped in the Chinese path forward, President von der Leyen offers Europe up as the shining example of a return to the ideal state once nearly within the global grasp. Nonetheless, the Europe that offers itself up is also a work in progress toward the ideal. More importantly, that offering of oneself as the template for the future also requires that Europe liberate itself so that it might offer itself up as something that is not an appendage of, or in the thrall of the eagle, the dragon, and the bear.
For us Europeans, the race begins at home. Europe has a unique social market economy. We have the second largest economy and the biggest trading sector in the world. * * * Our capacity to invent and create is underappreciated – Europe's global share of patent applications is on par with the US and China. But the world is changing. So must we. In the last 25 years, Europe has relied on the rising tide of global trade to drive its growth. It has relied on cheap energy from Russia. And Europe has too often outsourced its own security. But those days are gone. (Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum).
4. Nonetheless, to preserve Europe, to guarantee its autonomy, and to protect its role as a center for global innovation in all spheres, the European trajectory must also change. The focus is on efficiency, which can then be used to leverage and project out European values, and the European regulatory approach as basis for a return to a golden age of proper convergence.
This is why I asked Mario Draghi to deliver a report on European Competitiveness. And on that basis, next week the European Commission is presenting our roadmap, which will drive our work for the next five years. The focus will be to increase productivity by closing the innovation gap. A joint plan for decarbonisation and competitiveness to overcome skills and labour shortages and cut red tape. (Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum).
But can this work, in the sense of achieving efficiencies without sacrificing the core of European values and its delivery through its emerging systems of interlocking compliance based techno-bureaucracies?
5. President von der Leyen's three step plan for reform and revitalization suggests both the possibilities and the structural debilitation that has moved Europe into an unwanted dependency.
First, Europe needs a deep and liquid Capital Markets Union. European household savings reach almost EUR 1.4 trillion, compared with just over EUR 800 billion in the US. But European companies struggle to tap into that and raise the funding they need because our domestic capital market is fragmented.* * * Second, we must make business much easier all across Europe. Too much of our top talent is leaving the EU because it is easier to grow their companies elsewhere. And too many firms are holding back investment in Europe because of unnecessary red tape. * * * The third foundation is energy. Before the start of Putin's war, Europe got 45% of its gas supply and 50% of its coal imports from Russia. Russia was also one of our largest oil suppliers. This energy appeared cheap, but it exposed us to blackmail. * * * Not only must we continue to diversify our energy supplies, and expand clean sources of generation from renewables and, in some countries, also from nuclear. (Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum).
Foregrounded in this action plan for a Europe that reforms its apparatus but keeps safe the normative framework from from this apparatus arose was the Draghi Report, “
The Future of European Competitiveness," a 400 or so page document detailing what might be understood as a hard turn in the seemingly organic evolution of increasingly tightly interwoven techno-bureaucracies within the public and private sectors around whose oversight state policy could drive the social relations of the masses through their economic (broadly understood) activities. " Draghi’s text is far more strategic and ambitious, addressing three key
challenges for the European Union: closing the innovation gap with the
United States, harmonizing decarbonization with competitiveness, and
enhancing economic security by reducing dependencies." (
CISIS). That was what Europe had vigorously offered as an alternative to the Chinese model, and as a challenge to the U.S. model, vigorously defended a year earlier. Nonetheless, in some respects, President von der Leyen's remarks might be understood as a summary report and affirmation of Draghi's core proposals and the embrace of the insights on which it is based. It is in effect the cri du coeur of all states fearful of the consequences of being consigned to the level of second order powers in a fractured world--dependency and control.
But President von der Leyen does not merely echos Mr. Draghi; she effectively concedes the point more brutally made in President Zelenskyy's own remarks. And even more brutally--this is the state that a century or more of self-destructive behaviors has reduced the European condition--comfortably dependent on friend and foe. And that is the challenge--to find a pathway to drive global discourse between the bear (energy), the eagle (markets dependency), and the dragon (tributary status of a foreign vanguard). But can Europe preserve its own uniqueness in the process?
6. And energy is the key, a point to which President von der Leyen devoted a substantial amount of space. European success in energy transition is the key to vindicating the
European approach to a public policy based normative framework for
arranging and managing their social relations.
This is our plan. And the next few years will be vital to stay in the race of clean and disruptive technologies. Europe has everything it needs to make this happen. We have a private sector with a long tradition of innovation. We have a top-class workforce. We have a huge Single Market of 450 million people and a unique social infrastructure to protect people from the great risks of life. (Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum).
It is through the lens of energy that one can properly position what Europe has to offer for itself and as a model of others. "The coming years will be vital well beyond Europe. All continents will have to speed up the transition towards net zero, and deal with the growing burden of climate change. Its impact is impossible to ignore." (Ibid.). This is what is on offer as a new model of multilateralism--one not grounded on economic productivity, but in which economic productivity os a means through which welfare based public policy can be realized, energy transition is possible and collective efforts can be developed to meet common threats: "Likewise, all continents will have to grasp the opportunities of AI and manage its risks. On challenges like these, we are not in a race against each other, but in a race against time. Even in a moment of harsh competition, we need to join forces." (Ibid.)
7. That leaves the role of leading force for global multilateralism ready for the taking. In that context Europe is marketed as a territorial and normative space that permits other, smaller states to avoid choosing between one of the two great apex powers. "And as great power competition intensifies, I see a growing appetite across the world to engage more closely with us." (Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum). This is the Chinese offer packaged in the Belt & Road Initiative but in Europe's favor--and the market for influence points South.
In the last two months only, we concluded new partnerships with Switzerland, Mercosur and Mexico. This means that 400 million Latin Americans will soon be engaged in a privileged partnership with Europe. These deals were in the making for years, if not decades. * * * It is how we diversify our own supply chains. And this is why Europe's offer is so attractive, all across the world. From our neighbours in Africa, who are working with us to develop local clean-tech value chains and clean fuels to the vast Asia-Pacific region. Hence, the first trip of my new Commission will be to India. Together with Prime Minister Modi we want to upgrade the strategic partnership with the largest country and democracy in the world. (Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum).
And the reason is bound up in European values--normative and structural. "So, why are they all happening today? It is not only because Europe is a
large and attractive market. But because with Europe, what you see is
what you get. We play by the rules. Our deals have no hidden strings
attached. And while others are only interested in exporting and
extracting, we want to see local industries flourish in partner
countries." (Ibid.).
8. And what of the great competitors--the apex powers? China is a frenemy. On the one hand Europe "should also strive for mutual benefits in our conversation with China." (Ibid.). But at the same time
Defensive trade measures are being adopted across the world, including in the Global South, as a response to Chinese market distortions. This is also why Europe has taken measures, for instance on electric cars. At the same time, I have always stressed that we are ready to continue our discussions. And we will continue to de-risk our economy. * * * 2025 marks 50 years of our Union's diplomatic relations with China. I see it as an opportunity to engage and deepen our relationship with China, and where possible, even to expand our trade and investment ties. It is time to pursue a more balanced relationship with China, in a spirit of fairness and reciprocity. (Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum).
There is little room for e return to the golden age except within the community of States willing to join the community of European believers. Put differently, the path for European prosperity and autonomy requires it to abandon convergence and to leverage energy and values as a means for restoring its place of independence from China and the United States. "This new engagement with countries across the world is not only an economic necessity – but a message to the world. It is Europe's response to rising global competition. We want more cooperation with all who are open for it." (Ibid.).
9. And so we come the the United States. They are offered the same terms as China--cooperation to the extent that the U.S. is open to the European path. For the moment Europe appears intent on bending, bit it will not conform to the American path to its own golden age. "A lot is at stake for both sides. So our first priority will be to engage early, discuss common interests, and be ready to negotiate. We will be pragmatic, but we will always stand by our principles to protect our interests and uphold our values – that is the European way." (
Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum). The difference between China and the United States, for Europe, is the difference in the extent of the integration of their economies, and the value of production at stake in disruption.
The rules of engagement between global powers are changing. We should not take anything for granted. And while some in Europe may not like this new reality, we are ready to deal with it. Our values do not change. But to defend these values in a changing world, we must change the way we act. We must look for new opportunities wherever they arise. This is the moment to engage beyond blocs and taboos. And Europe is ready for change. (Ibid., emphasis supplied).
The risk is telling. President von der Leyen ends her remarks the way that President Zelenskyy ended his: "Thank you very much, and long live Europe." (Ibid.). And that more than anything may suggest not just the stakes but the risks. This is a very different discourse than that of 2024.