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| Pix Credit HERE |
It comes as no surprise that the de facto and de jure governance of the Hong Kong SAR continues to be transformed--however the Chinese Central Authorities and foreign stakeholders wish to characterize events notwithstanding. It follows that those with an interest in Hong Kong, by reason of history or international agreement or by right of sovereign prerogative, as well as those with substantial objectives in ordering their relationships more generally with PRC Central Authorities, would now shift their positions in light of the actions taken recently to evolve the relationship between the Hong Kong SAR and the Chinese Central Authorities in preparation for the union that 2047 augured but which appears to have arrived early.
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‘Rocky’ shock for China makes Trump Hong Kong hero |
This post includes the text of the latest response of the government of the United States, the President’s Executive Order on Hong Kong Normalization, issued 14 July 2020, reproduced below. It speaks for itself. By now, of course, the territory of the SAR is less important than is the idea of the territory of the SAR as a nodal point in the boundary making between the American and Chinese post global imperial orders. The rest s to be expected on both sides as they work diligently to refine their ideologies in the shadow of the other and then seek to market their respective approaches to the rest of the world. Hong Kong, again, serves as a nodal point, but this time in the differentiation of the two great post global imperial projects.There are no surprises. And it is important to remember that this is a starting, not an ending, point, in the US response. The object is the situation in Hong Kong, of course, but there are far larger stakes involved as well in the reordering and control of global economic and political ordering. Bth China and the US have given notice to expect substantially more (see, e.g., here).
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| Pix Credit Smithsonian HERE |
It becomes even more interesting in light of Benny Tai Yiu-ting's (戴耀廷) recent essay circulating in Hong Kong that seeks to predict the trajectory of events from now until Hong Kong is effectively transformed, and with it the international order (for which Hong Kong served as a sort of nodal point--the proverbial canary in the mine) (真攬炒十步 這是香港宿命 - 戴耀廷 [Frying Hong Kong in Ten steps; this is the fate of Hong Kong]). It should be noted that the Chinese Central Authorities have accused Professor Tai of “illegally manipulating” the city’s polling system, challenging the new national security law and acting as a political agent for foreign forces (Hong Kong elections: Beijing accuses Occupy protest leader Benny Tai of breaking national security law through primary poll).
Professor Tai is a Hong Kong legal scholar and democracy activist, Associate Professor of Law at the University of Hong Kong and associated with Occupy Central movement, He posited a ten step process that would inevitably end in China facing international pushback for its choices in the way n which it governs the SAR (第十步（2022年1月後）。西方國家對中共實行政治及經濟制裁。[The tenth step (after January 2022). Western countries impose political and economic sanctions on the CCP.]). It seems however, that step 10 might well have become step one. Only time will tell. The text of President Trump's Executve Order follows along with the text of 真攬炒十步 這是香港宿命 - 戴耀廷 [Frying Hong Kong in Ten steps; this is the fate of Hong Kong]).
The President’s Executive Order on Hong Kong Normalization
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 (Public Law 102-393), the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 (Public Law 116-76), the Hong Kong Autonomy Act of 2020, signed into law July 14, 2020, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) (NEA), section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 (8 U.S.C. 1182(f)), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code,
I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, determine, pursuant to section 202 of the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, that the Special Administrative Region of Hong Kong (Hong Kong) is no longer sufficiently autonomous to justify differential treatment in relation to the People’s Republic of China (PRC or China) under the particular United States laws and provisions thereof set out in this order. In late May 2020, the National People’s Congress of China announced its intention to unilaterally and arbitrarily impose national security legislation on Hong Kong. This announcement was merely China’s latest salvo in a series of actions that have increasingly denied autonomy and freedoms that China promised to the people of Hong Kong under the 1984 Joint Declaration of the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the People’s Republic of China on the Question of Hong Kong (Joint Declaration). As a result, on May 27, 2020, the Secretary of State announced that the PRC had fundamentally undermined Hong Kong’s autonomy and certified and reported to the Congress, pursuant to sections 205 and 301 of the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, as amended, respectively, that Hong Kong no longer warrants treatment under United States law in the same manner as United States laws were applied to Hong Kong before July 1, 1997. On May 29, 2020, I directed the heads of executive departments and agencies (agencies) to begin the process of eliminating policy exemptions under United States law that give Hong Kong differential treatment in relation to China.
China has since followed through on its threat to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong. Under this law, the people of Hong Kong may face life in prison for what China considers to be acts of secession or subversion of state power –- which may include acts like last year’s widespread anti-government protests. The right to trial by jury may be suspended. Proceedings may be conducted in secret. China has given itself broad power to initiate and control the prosecutions of the people of Hong Kong through the new Office for Safeguarding National Security. At the same time, the law allows foreigners to be expelled if China merely suspects them of violating the law, potentially making it harder for journalists, human rights organizations, and other outside groups to hold the PRC accountable for its treatment of the people of Hong Kong.
I therefore determine that the situation with respect to Hong Kong, including recent actions taken by the PRC to fundamentally undermine Hong Kong’s autonomy, constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. I hereby declare a national emergency with respect to that threat.
In light of the foregoing, I hereby determine and order:
Section 1. It shall be the policy of the United States to suspend or eliminate different and preferential treatment for Hong Kong to the extent permitted by law and in the national security, foreign policy, and economic interest of the United States.
Sec. 2. Pursuant to section 202 of the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 (22 U.S.C. 5722), I hereby suspend the application of section 201(a) of the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, as amended (22 U.S.C. 5721(a)), to the following statutes:
(a) section 103 of the Immigration Act of 1990 (8 U.S.C. 1152 note);
(b) sections 203(c), 212(l), and 221(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952, as amended (8 U.S.C. 1153(c), 1182(l), and 1201(c), respectively);
(c) the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2751 et seq.);
(d) section 721(m) of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended (50 U.S.C. 4565(m));
(e) the Export Control Reform Act of 2018 (50 U.S.C. 4801 et seq.); and
(f) section 1304 of title 19, United States Code.
Sec. 3. Within 15 days of the date of this order, the heads of agencies shall commence all appropriate actions to further the purposes of this order, consistent with applicable law, including, to:
(a) amend any regulations implementing those provisions specified in section 2 of this order, and, consistent with applicable law and executive orders, under IEEPA, which provide different treatment for Hong Kong as compared to China;
(b) amend the regulation at 8 CFR 212.4(i) to eliminate the preference for Hong Kong passport holders as compared to PRC passport holders;
(c) revoke license exceptions for exports to Hong Kong, reexports to Hong Kong, and transfers (in-country) within Hong Kong of items subject to the Export Administration Regulations, 15 CFR Parts 730-774, that provide differential treatment compared to those license exceptions applicable to exports to China, reexports to China, and transfers (in-country) within China;
(d) consistent with section 902(b)(2) of the Foreign Relations Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 1990 and 1991 (Public Law 101-246), terminate the export licensing suspensions under section 902(a)(3) of such Act insofar as such suspensions apply to exports of defense articles to Hong Kong persons who are physically located outside of Hong Kong and the PRC and who were authorized to receive defense articles prior to the date of this order;
(e) give notice of intent to suspend the Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Hong Kong for the Surrender of Fugitive Offenders (TIAS 98-121);
(f) give notice of intent to terminate the Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Hong Kong for the Transfer of Sentenced Persons (TIAS 99-418);
(g) take steps to end the provision of training to members of the Hong Kong Police Force or other Hong Kong security services at the Department of State’s International Law Enforcement Academies;
(h) suspend continued cooperation undertaken consistent with the now-expired Protocol Between the U.S. Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior of the United States of America and Institute of Space and Earth Information Science of the Chinese University of Hong Kong Concerning Scientific and Technical Cooperation in Earth Sciences (TIAS 09-1109);
(i) take steps to terminate the Fulbright exchange program with regard to China and Hong Kong with respect to future exchanges for participants traveling both from and to China or Hong Kong;
(j) give notice of intent to terminate the agreement for the reciprocal exemption with respect to taxes on income from the international operation of ships effected by the Exchange of Notes Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Hong Kong (TIAS 11892);
(k) reallocate admissions within the refugee ceiling set by the annual Presidential Determination to residents of Hong Kong based on humanitarian concerns, to the extent feasible and consistent with applicable law; and
(l) propose for my consideration any further actions deemed necessary and prudent to end special conditions and preferential treatment for Hong Kong.
Sec. 4. All property and interests in property that are in the United States, that hereafter come within the United States, or that are or hereafter come within the possession or control of any United States person, of the following persons are blocked and may not be transferred, paid, exported, withdrawn, or otherwise dealt in:
(a) Any foreign person determined by the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, or the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State:
(i) to be or have been involved, directly or indirectly, in the coercing, arresting, detaining, or imprisoning of individuals under the authority of, or to be or have been responsible for or involved in developing, adopting, or implementing, the Law of the People’s Republic of China on Safeguarding National Security in the Hong Kong Administrative Region;
(ii) to be responsible for or complicit in, or to have engaged in, directly or indirectly, any of the following:(A) actions or policies that undermine democratic processes or institutions in Hong Kong;
(B) actions or policies that threaten the peace, security, stability, or autonomy of Hong Kong;
(C) censorship or other activities with respect to Hong Kong that prohibit, limit, or penalize the exercise of freedom of expression or assembly by citizens of Hong Kong, or that limit access to free and independent print, online or broadcast media; or
(D) the extrajudicial rendition, arbitrary detention, or torture of any person in Hong Kong or other gross violations of internationally recognized human rights or serious human rights abuse in Hong Kong;
(iii) to be or have been a leader or official of:
(A) an entity, including any government entity, that has engaged in, or whose members have engaged in, any of the activities described in subsections (a)(i), (a)(ii)(A), (a)(ii)
(B), or (a)(ii)(C) of this section; or
(B) an entity whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order.
(iv) to have materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this section;
(v) to be owned or controlled by, or to have acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this section; or
(vi) to be a member of the board of directors or a senior executive officer of any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this section.
(b) The prohibitions in subsection (a) of this section apply except to the extent provided by statutes, or in regulations, orders, directives, or licenses that may be issued pursuant to this order, and notwithstanding any contract entered into or any license or permit granted before the date of this order.
Sec. 5. I hereby determine that the making of donations of the types of articles specified in section 203(b)(2) of IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1702(b)(2)) by, to, or for the benefit of any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to section 4 of this order would seriously impair my ability to deal with the national emergency declared in this order, and I hereby prohibit such donations as provided by section 4 of this order.
Sec. 6. The prohibitions in section 4(a) of this order include:
(a) the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to section 4(a) of this order; and
(b) the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person.
Sec. 7. The unrestricted immigrant and nonimmigrant entry into the United States of aliens determined to meet one or more of the criteria in section 4(a) of this order, as well as immediate family members of such aliens, or aliens determined by the Secretary of State to be employed by, or acting as an agent of, such aliens, would be detrimental to the interest of the United States, and the entry of such persons into the United States, as immigrants and nonimmigrants, is hereby suspended. Such persons shall be treated as persons covered by section 1 of Proclamation 8693 of July 24, 2011 (Suspension of Entry of Aliens Subject to United Nations Security Council Travel Bans and International Emergency Economic Powers Act Sanctions). The Secretary of State shall have the responsibility of implementing this section pursuant to such conditions and procedures as the Secretary has established or may establish pursuant to Proclamation 8693.
Sec. 8. (a) Any transaction that evades or avoids, has the purpose of evading or avoiding, causes a violation of, or attempts to violate any of the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.
(b) Any conspiracy formed to violate any of the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.
Sec. 9. Nothing in this order shall prohibit transactions for the conduct of the official business of the Federal Government by employees, grantees, or contractors thereof.
Sec. 10. For the purposes of this order:
(a) the term “person” means an individual or entity;
(b) the term “entity” means a government or instrumentality of such government, partnership, association, trust, joint venture, corporation, group, subgroup, or other organization, including an international organization;
(c) the term “United States person” means any United States citizen, permanent resident alien, entity organized under the laws of the United States or any jurisdiction within the United States (including foreign branches), or any person in the United States; and
(d) The term “immediate family member” means spouses and children of any age.
Sec. 11. For those persons whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order who might have a constitutional presence in the United States, I find that because of the ability to transfer funds or other assets instantaneously, prior notice to such persons of measures to be taken pursuant to section 4 of this order would render those measures ineffectual. I therefore determine that for these measures to be effective in addressing the national emergency declared in this order, there need be no prior notice of a listing or determination made pursuant to section 4 of this order.
Sec. 12. The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, is hereby authorized to take such actions, including adopting rules and regulations, and to employ all powers granted to me by IEEPA as may be necessary to implement this order. The Secretary of the Treasury may, consistent with applicable law, redelegate any of these functions within the Department of the Treasury. All departments and agencies of the United States shall take all appropriate measures within their authority to implement this order.
Sec. 13. The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, is hereby authorized to submit recurring and final reports to the Congress on the national emergency declared in this order, consistent with section 401(c) of the NEA (50 U.S.C. 1641(c)) and section 204(c) of IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1703(c)).
Sec. 14.
(a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency; or
(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.
(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
Sec. 15. If, based on consideration of the terms, obligations, and expectations expressed in the Joint Declaration, I determine that changes in China’s actions ensure that Hong Kong is sufficiently autonomous to justify differential treatment in relation to the PRC under United States law, I will reconsider the determinations made and actions taken and directed under this order.
DONALD J. TRUMP
THE WHITE HOUSE,
July 14, 2020.
__________
真攬炒十步 這是香港宿命 - 戴耀廷
更新時間 (HKT): 2020.04.28 02:20
作者 : 戴耀廷
港人由威脅攬炒轉化為真攬炒，其實是悲哀的，必是因現實處境已看不到其他出路，與其被當權者逼到崖邊跪地求饒，不如主動反撲，把他也拉下崖，看哪一個在跌出懸崖後仍能死裏逃生。
現在更多港人有了真攬炒意識，當權者也心怯起來，威脅港人不要讓攬炒發生。但當更多港人醒覺必須來一次真攬炒時，攬炒就必然會發生，成為香港宿命。
按我的推算，這條香港攬炒宿命路的時間線可能是這樣。第一步（2020年7至8月）。政府廣泛取消民主派人士參選立法會資格，包括現任議員。民主派由Plan B繼續參選。第二步（2020年9月）。因兩辦干預及DQ，刺激更多港人投票支持民主派，及配合策略投票，使民主派成功取得35席或以上。第三步（2020年10月）。特首及律政司開展司法程序DQ民主派議員，但因法庭需時處理，故民主派繼續主導立法會。第四步（2020年10月至2021年4月）。政府向立法會提出的所有撥款申請都被立法會否決。政府只能維持一般運作。第五步（2021年5月）。立法會否決政府《財政預算案》，特首解散立法會，並以臨時撥款方式維持政府運作。
第六步（2021年10月）。立法會重選，民主派或要派出Plan C參選，因Plan B也可能被DQ，但仍取得35席以上。第七步（2021年11月）。立法會再次否決《財政預算案》，特首辭職及特區政府停擺。第八步（2021年12月）。全國人大常委會宣佈香港進入緊急狀態，中央政府把國家安全法直接適用於香港，解散立法會、成立臨時立法會、下屆特首由協商產生，大舉拘押民主派領袖。第九步（2021年12月後），香港社會街頭抗爭變得更加激烈，鎮壓也非常血腥，港人發動三罷，令香港社會陷入停頓。第十步（2022年1月後）。西方國家對中共實行政治及經濟制裁。
準備應對不穩定未來
這十步是一步扣一步的，我能想像得出，中共應也計算得到，故必在每一步想方法令下一步不能發生。每一步也有可能加速發生，這只是較保守的推算。因而我們也要準備好應對之法。
首先，現在進行協調出選時，必須部署好第一步，Plan B安排要有共識及好的準備，以免全軍覆沒。到第二步，必須推動更多人起來以票反抗，關鍵是推高投票率並平均配票。至於第三步，若法庭加速處理特首及律政司的DQ申請，那會影響到第五步。如果法庭在立法會處理《財政預算案》前已DQ不少民主派議員，令民主派失去立法會多數，那一步就走不下去。這只能寄望香港的法官們能秉持公平的原則，按自己的良心與專業去做決定。
走到第六步，能否繼續走下去，要看民主派能否同心抗衡中共及是否有足夠後備力量，也要看港人對真攬炒的決心有多堅定。中共必會發動一切力量威脅港人不要讓民主派再次取得35席。若民主派在立法會重選時不能取得35席，中共算是短期化解了真攬炒危機，但香港社會仍會極度不穩。
走過第七步，中共會否下定決心走第八步，現難以肯定，也不要抱持任何幻想。一旦中共不惜放棄一國兩制，誓要趕盡殺絕，港人能否在第九步成功發動三罷及能持續多久，亦是未能預知，故現在必須做好部署。
到第十步，我們已攬着中共一起跳出懸崖，之後會發生甚麼事，我已寫不下去了，因已超出香港界線。國際社會怎樣對付中共，制裁對中共及中國社會的震撼有多大，是現在所不能預見的。
十步以外的世界或許是香港和中國的新開始。我記起抗爭名曲《Do you hear the people sing》中一句：「Is there a world you long to see？Then join in the fight, that will give you the right to be free！」你想見到一個新的世界嗎？來吧！加入這抗爭，去為你的自由去爭戰吧！
戴耀廷
Frying Hing Kong in Ten Steps; this is the fate of Hong Kong
Update time (HKT): 2020.04.28 02:20
Author: Tai Yaoting(Benny)
Update time (HKT): 2020.04.28 02:20
Author: Tai Yaoting(Benny)
The transformation of Hong Kong people from threatening speculation to real speculation is actually sad. It must be that because of the current situation, there is no other way out. Instead of being forced to kneel and beg for mercy by the authorities, it is better to take the initiative to fight back and pull him down. Cliff, to see which one can still escape after falling out of the cliff.
Now more Hong Kong people have a real sense of speculation, and those in power are also timid, threatening Hong Kong people not to let speculation happen. But when more Hong Kong people realize that there must be a real speculation, speculation will inevitably happen and become the fate of Hong Kong.
According to my calculations, this timeline of Hong Kong's speculation on fatalities may be like this. The first step (July to August 2020). The government has widely disqualified democrats from the Legislative Council, including current members. Democrats continue to run for election by Plan B. The second step (September 2020). The intervention of the two offices and DQ stimulated more Hong Kong people to vote for the Democrats, and cooperated with the strategic vote, so that the Democrats successfully obtained 35 seats or more. The third step (October 2020). The Chief Executive and the Department of Justice carry out the judicial process DQ Democrats, but because the court takes time to deal with, the Democrats continue to dominate the Legislative Council. The fourth step (October 2020 to April 2021). All funding applications made by the government to the Legislative Council were rejected by the Legislative Council. The government can only maintain normal operations. The fifth step (May 2021). The Legislative Council rejected the government's "Budget", the Chief Executive disbanded the Legislative Council, and maintained government operations by means of temporary funding.
The sixth step (October 2021). The Legislative Council re-election. Democrats may want to send Plan C to run. Plan B may also be DQed, but still get more than 35 seats. The seventh step (November 2021). The Legislative Council once again vetoed the Budget, the chief executive resigned and the SAR government shut down. The eighth step (December 2021). The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress declared Hong Kong into a state of emergency. The Central Government directly applied the National Security Law to Hong Kong. The Legislative Council was dissolved, the Provisional Legislative Council was established, and the next Chief Executive was negotiated and detained the leaders of the Democrats. The ninth step (after December 2021), the street struggle in Hong Kong society became more intense and the repression was very bloody. The Hong Kong people launched three strikes, which caused the Hong Kong society to stall. The tenth step (after January 2022). Western countries impose political and economic sanctions on the CCP.
Prepare for an unstable future
These ten steps are deducted step by step. I can imagine that the CCP should also calculate it. Therefore, every step must be a way to prevent the next step from happening. Each step may also accelerate, which is just a more conservative calculation. Therefore, we must also prepare for the response.
First of all, when conducting the coordinated election, the first step must be deployed. Plan B must have a consensus and good preparations so as not to overwhelm the whole army. In the second step, more people must be promoted to fight against the votes. The key is to increase the voter turnout and evenly distribute the votes. As for the third step, if the court accelerates the processing of DQ applications by the chief executive and the Department of Justice, it will affect the fifth step. If the court has already DQ many Democrats before the Legislative Council deals with the Budget, causing the Democrats to lose the majority of the Legislative Council, that step cannot go on. This can only hope that the judges in Hong Kong will uphold the principle of fairness and make decisions based on their own conscience and professionalism.
Going to the sixth step, whether you can continue to go depends on whether the democrats can contend against the CCP and whether it has enough backup power, and also depends on how firm the Hong Kong people are in their determination. The CCP will mobilize all forces to threaten the people of Hong Kong not to allow the democrats to obtain 35 seats again. If the democrats cannot obtain 35 seats in the re-election of the Legislative Council, the CCP will be able to resolve the crisis of real speculation in a short period of time, but Hong Kong society will still be extremely unstable.
After passing the seventh step, the CCP will make up its mind to take the eighth step. It is difficult to be sure now, and do not hold any illusions. Once the CCP does not hesitate to abandon one country, two systems, and vows to succumb to annihilation, whether the Hong Kong people can successfully launch the three strikes in the ninth step and how long it can last is also unpredictable, so it must be deployed now.
By the tenth step, we had taken the CCP and jumped off the cliff together. What will happen after that, I can't write it anymore, because it has exceeded the boundary of Hong Kong. How the international community deals with the CCP, and how much the sanctions have shocked the CCP and Chinese society, is unpredictable now.
The world beyond ten steps may be a new beginning for Hong Kong and China. I remember a sentence in the famous song "Do you hear the people sing": "Is there a world you long to see? Then join in the fight, that will give you the right to be free!" You want to see a new one The world? bring it on! Join this struggle and fight for your freedom!
Tai Yiu ting (Benny)
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