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People in liberal democratic states, more than most, are relatively comfortable with the core notion of their political economic model--that everything can be quantified, and so quantified, can be negotiated. Markets are the way one tends to call the spaces/process through which these transactions are rationalized and the integrity of the process protected (with more or less success--but the ideal tends toward perfect markets of perfectly valued objects). Objects can include anything.
Loyalty is an object. Business is comfortable with the concept of purchased loyalty. Important provisions of corporate and labor law regulate the legal effects of purchased loyalty (among board of directors, officers, and other employees, as well as among gatekeepers and service providers). Especially in liberal democratic states, however, the valuation of loyalty is left to markets (eg to bargaining among providers and consumers of loyalty) subject to market integrity protecting rules.
Loyalty has also been a commodity offered for sale and purchased among states. The currency of such transactions varies. Outright purchase is common, though it amounts to renting rather than buying loyalty. Debt is a more refined purchase instrument--it allows the purchaser greater control of the modalities of loyalty tied to debt repayment or the provision of additional funds. This method has been at the core of the system of sovereign public debt and used to good effect through the conditional lending (tied to capacity building and oversight provisions) of international financial institutions. But state to state debt relations can also find this a useful way of bartering loyalty. , but The value of such loyalty, like that in private markets, may be contextual, but no less capable of rationalized valuation. And when such values are used often enough, may give rise to rationalized markets for loyalty. When transactions in quantifiable things are regularized and occur in some rational way then markets are said to be established.
It is with this in mind that one might better understand the purchase by Russia of the loyalty of the Cuban state to it, and more specifically for support of the Russian adventure in Ukraine. Reuters reported today (Russia postpones Cuba debt payments amid warming relations) that:
Russia has agreed to postpone some debt payments owed to it by communist-run Cuba until 2027, its lower house of parliament said on Tuesday, just days after the two countries announced they would deepen ties amid the spiraling Ukraine crisis.
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The loans, worth $2.3 billion and provided to Cuba by Russia between 2006 and 2019, helped underwrite investments in power generation, metals and transportation infrastructure, according to a statement from the lower house, or Duma.On Tuesday, Russian lawmakers ratified an agreement, originally signed with Cuban counterparts in Havana in 2021, that amended the loan terms, the statement said.
Cuba last week expressed support for Russia in its showdown with Western powers over Ukraine following a visit from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, and accused long-time rival the United States and its allies of targeting Moscow with what it called a "propaganda war" and sanctions.
Russia, of course, has quite naturally been shopping for loyalty anticipating that the chains of loyalty for most states will pull in opposite directions. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov "earlier this week visited Nicaragua and Venezuela, key Russian allies in Latin America, and said Russia would also deepen bilateral ties with both countries. His tour follows visits to Moscow by Latin American leaders - including Argentina's Alberto Fernandez and Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro - for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, prompting some analysts to suggest Russia is courting the region as tensions rise over Ukraine." (Cuba to deepen ties with Russia as Ukraine tensions mount). And, naturally Venezuela, like Cuba, is likely to offer its loyalty for significantly reduced "fire sale" prices (Venezuela a key Russian ally in Latin America - Borisov).
It is not clear whether the US will engage in a bidding war, or instead take their business elsewhere. It would, in any case, be in the US interest both to mind this market and to recall transactions in it in ordering its own relations. All markets transactions have both direct prices and indirect costs.
The 22 February 2222 Statement of the Cuban Foreign Ministry (in Spanish) follows.
Llamamos a preservar la paz y la seguridad internacionales
Declaración del Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores
El empeño de Estados Unidos por imponer la progresiva expansión de la OTAN hacia las fronteras de la Federación de Rusia constituye una amenaza a la seguridad nacional de este país y a la paz regional e internacional.
El Gobierno de Estados Unidos lleva semanas amenazando a Rusia y manipulando a la comunidad internacional sobre los peligros de una «inminente invasión masiva» a Ucrania. Ha suministrado armas y tecnología militar, ha desplegado tropas en varios países de la región, ha aplicado sanciones unilaterales e injustas, y amenazado con otras represalias. Paralelamente, desató una campaña propagandística antirrusa.
Cuba ha alertado con anterioridad sobre la peligrosidad de esta política.
El 22 de febrero de 2014, el entonces Presidente de los Consejos de Estado y de Ministros, General de Ejército Raúl Castro Ruz, advirtió: «Ahora mismo, en Ucrania están ocurriendo acontecimientos alarmantes. La intervención de potencias occidentales debe cesar (…). No debe ignorarse que estos hechos pueden tener consecuencias muy graves para la paz y la seguridad internacionales».
Años más tarde, el 26 de septiembre de 2018, ante la Asamblea General de las Naciones Unidas, el Presidente de la República, Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, alertó que: «La continuada expansión de la OTAN hacia las fronteras con Rusia provoca serios peligros, agravados por la imposición de sanciones arbitrarias que rechazamos».
Llamamos a Estados Unidos y a la OTAN a atender de manera seria y realista los fundados reclamos de garantías de seguridad de la Federación de Rusia, que tiene derecho a defenderse.
Cuba aboga por una solución diplomática a través del diálogo constructivo y respetuoso.
Llamamos a preservar la paz y la seguridad internacionales.
Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de la República de Cuba
La Habana, 22 de febrero de 2022
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