The World Justice Project has just released its U.S. Rule of Law Trends and 2024 Election Trust Report. The Press Release provides short synopsis.
Our timely new U.S. report provides crucial insights into eroding trust as the 2024 election nears. Citizen concerns about fair elections are widespread, and trust in the courts that may get involved is falling and polarized. But the report does more than reveal challenges to U.S. institutions and democracy. It shows remarkable, bipartisan unity on core rule of law values.
The Report is well worth reading. Perhaps emblematic of the c ontradicvitons of the current moment was best captured y these findings:
EXECUTIVE FINDINGS
U.S. Rule of Law Trends and the 2024 Election provides a comprehensive overview of how respondents perceive and experience the rule of law in the United States and their perceptions about the institutions governing the 2024 presidential elections. The results from the World Justice Project (WJP) General Population Poll 2024 show a deterioration in the public’s perception of the rule of law in the country
compared to previous years.
SECTION 1
Rule of Law and Trust
A majority of Americans view the current state of the rule of law in the United States negatively, despite their positive associations with the concept of rule of law itself. This dichotomy reflects growing concerns over the actual implementation and integrity of the rule of law in the country. While both Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly agree on the critical importance of the rule of law for the future of the
United States, its democracy, and their own lives, these shared beliefs mask deeper concerns about the erosion of government accountability and institutional trust.
Since 2013, public perception of government accountability has declined, with a 30 percentage-point drop in respondents who believe high-çranking government officials would be held accountable for breaking the law. Although this perception improved slightly between 2021 and 2024, accountability remains a critical issue, and the public's views are increasingly divided along partisan lines. Compared to 2018, a
greater percentage of Democrats believe that high-ranking government officials are held accountable for misconduct, while views among Republicans have grown increasingly pessimistic.
Additionally, the erosion of the rule of law values is evident, with declining percentages of Americans favoring citizen participation over government efficiency and believing that the president should always obey the law and courts. Moreover, there has been a slight increase in those who believe it is unnecessary for people to obey the laws of a government they did not vote for, indicating a potential weakening of
civic responsibility and respect for legal frameworks.
The public's confidence in institutions designed to check executive power, such as Congress and the courts, has also diminished since 2013, although there was a slight recovery in this confidence between 2021 and 2024. Interestingly, the only group that has seen a net increase in condence to stop illegal actions by the president is the citizens themselves. This suggests a shift towards people’s faith in grassroots
accountability rather than institutional checks.
Partisan differences complicate these trends. Historically, Republicans have reported greater trust than Democrats in both citizens and institutions to check executive authority, but Republicans’ condence has eroded since 2018, while Democrats’ confidence has increased. By 2024, Democrats’ trust in all checks on executive authority exceeded Republicans’.
Overall trust in many key institutions has decreased since 2018, with a particularly pronounced decline in confidence in judges and the media. Trust in national government officials has increased slightly, but local ofcials are more trusted overall. Partisan differences persist, as Democrats generally trust media, executive, and judicial officials more than Republicans, who maintain higher trust in the police than do
Democrats. Since 2018, Democrats’ trust has declined most significantly in the media, while Republicans’ trust has declined most significantly in prosecutors and judges. These trends underscore a growing polarization in perceptions of institutional integrity and fairness.
Generally, public perception of the justice system’s fairness and independence has significantly deteriorated since 2018, though there has been a notable improvement in the perceived independence of prosecutors between 2021 and 2024. These shifts are also influenced by political affiliation, with Democrats showing increased confidence in the fairness and independence of the justice system, while Republicans’ confidence has deteriorated sharply.
The 2024 General Population Poll was conducted between June 10-18. Both a Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity and the conviction of a sitting U.S. Senator occurred after data collection concluded.
The 2024 presidential election is poised to be a deeply polarizing event, with condence in the electoral process heavily dependent on political afliation. Democrats generally express more condence in the fairness and legitimacy of elections compared to Republicans with the notable exception of voting rights, as Republicans are more likely to believe that voting is equally accessible and convenient for all
citizens.
The legitimacy of the 2024 presidential election is also in question, with approximately one-third of respondents indicating they would not accept the election’s results if their preferred candidate does not win. This sentiment is particularly strong among Republicans, nearly half of whom say they would not accept the election results if the Democratic candidate wins. This points to a potential crisis of legitimacy that could undermine the stability of the electoral process.
In the event of contested election results, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to trust local and state election workers, courts, and Congress to fairly determine the outcome, while Republicans place greater trust in the Supreme Court. This divergence in trust reflects broader partisan divisions in perceptions of institutional integrity and fairness.
The findings of the WJP General Population Poll 2024 in the U.S. underscore the mounting challenges to the rule of law in the United States, which ranked 26th out of 142 countries in the WJP Rule of Law Index® 2023 . While the public continues to express a broad commitment to rule of law principles, the erosion of trust in key institutions, growing partisan divides, and the increasingly precarious perception of
accountability pose signicant threats to the nation's democratic foundation. The United States, long regarded as a global standard-bearer for democracy and the rule of law, now faces internal weaknesses that threaten this status.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the stakes are high. The deepening polarization and mistrust, especially concerning the electoral process and the judiciary, highlights the need for renewed efforts to restore faith in the rule of law. Without such efforts, the United States risks further erosion of its democratic institutions and the very principles that have long underpinned its global leadership in
the rule of law. The path forward must involve addressing these issues head-on, strengthening citizens’ understanding of U.S. government and electoral processes, fostering a more inclusive, transparent, and accountable legal system, and ensuring that all Americans, regardless of political affiliation, can trust in the fairness and impartiality of the nation's institutions.
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