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This was perhaps inevitable and the necessary prelude either to (secret) deal making and a "cease fire" and both empires reorganize within their newly recognized borders, or the actions will be the pretext and supply the structures for the firming of the borders between imperial domains.
The "this" was the issuance on 8 April by the Trump Administration of the Amendment to Reciprocal Tariffs and Updated Duties as Applied to Low-Value Imports from the People’s Republic of China. The full text follows below. As promised the President promised a substantial punitive elevation of tariff rates in the face of Chinese tariff countermeasures. And of course the Chinese could not but impose further retaliatory tariffs. "After President Trump imposed a 104 percent tariff on Chinese goods, Beijing announced a levy on U.S. goods of 84 percent." (Trade War Escalates as China Hits Back Again at U.S.).
If things go as the behaviors and world views of both sides suggest they ought, then the stage is now set. For the moment this is as hot as the contest between the U.S. and China is getting (on the discourse from the Chinese side previously discussed here; on the U.S. side within the President's Executive Orders). Perhaps, in the style of transactions driven (win-win) merchants, both are testing each other's capacities to get a better sense of strategic approaches to negotiation. Those negotiations ought to be inevitable now. But the stage setting is still incomplete and the risk that incompetent (or ambitious) officials, or those seeing in this an opportunity to upend power relations within either merchant camp will not play to script looms large.
And then the bargaining begins: The day after the fireworks, a flank movement with benefits--"Donald Trump says he is raising tariffs on China to 125% "effective
immediately". But in a significant reversal, the US president has frozen
all other tariffs at 10% for 90 days - leading stocks to rally." (Tariffs latest: Trump gives reasons for pausing higher tariffs on most countries). Let's make a deal!
In any case, and even in the face of serendipity, transformation of trade relations is close to the point of no return; and where, one might wonder has the WTO gone? What we know is that China continues to see its as a useful stage for projecting its message (China initiates WTO dispute on US 'reciprocal tariffs'), smaller states still seek its protection (Canada initiates WTO dispute over US duties on cars); people are using the current situation to call for reform (A tariff crisis is exactly the right time to reform the WTO), and in the face of budget problems the WTO is considering substantial staff reductions (WTO Aims to Reduce Staffing Costs). . .
AMENDMENT TO RECIPROCAL TARIFFS AND UPDATED DUTIES AS APPLIED TO LOW-VALUE IMPORTS FROM THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and
the laws of the United States of America, including the International
Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the
National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.), section 604 of the
Trade Act of 1974, as amended (19 U.S.C. 2483), and section 301 of title
3, United States Code, I hereby determine and order:
Section 1. Background.
In Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025 (Regulating Imports with a
Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large
and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits), I declared a
national emergency arising from conditions reflected in large and
persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits, and imposed additional ad
valorem duties that I deemed necessary and appropriate to deal with that
unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or
substantial part outside the United States, to the national security and
economy of the United States. Section 4(b) of Executive Order 14257
provided that “[s]hould any trading partner retaliate against the United
States in response to this action through import duties on U.S. exports
or other measures, I may further modify the [Harmonized Tariff Schedule
of the United States] to increase or expand in scope the duties imposed
under this order to ensure the efficacy of this action.” I further
declared pursuant to Executive Order 14256 of April 2, 2025 (Further
Amendment to Duties Addressing the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the
People’s Republic of China as Applied to Low-Value Imports) that
duty-free de minimis treatment on articles described in section 2(a) of
Executive Order 14195 is no longer available effective at 12:01 a.m.
eastern daylight time on May 2, 2025.
On April 4, 2025, the State
Council Tariff Commission of the People’s Republic of China (PRC)
announced that in response to Executive Order 14257, effective at 12:01
a.m. eastern daylight time on April 10, 2025, a 34 percent tariff would
be imposed on all goods imported into the PRC originating from the
United States. Pursuant to section 4(b) of Executive Order 14257, I am
ordering modification of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United
States (HTSUS) and taking other actions to increase the duties imposed
on the PRC in response to this retaliation. In my judgment, this
modification is necessary and appropriate to effectively address the
threat to the national security and economy of the United States.
Sec. 2. Tariff Increase.
In recognition of the fact that the PRC has announced that it will
retaliate against the United States in response to Executive Order
14257, the HTSUS shall be modified as follows. Effective with respect
to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for
consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 9,
2025:
(a) heading 9903.01.63 of the HTSUS shall be amended by
deleting “34%” each place that it appears and by inserting “84%” in lieu
thereof; and
(b) subdivision (v)(xiii)(10) of U.S. note 2 to
subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting
“34%”, and inserting “84%” in lieu thereof.
Sec. 3. De Minimis Tariff Increase.
To ensure that the imposition of tariffs pursuant to section 2 of this
order is not circumvented and that the purpose of Executive Order 14257
and this action is not undermined, I also deem it necessary and
appropriate to:
(a) increase the ad valorem rate of duty set forth in section 2(c)(i) of Executive Order 14256 from 30 percent to 90 percent;
(b)
increase the per postal item containing goods duty in section 2(c)(ii)
of Executive Order 14256 that is in effect on or after 12:01 a.m.
eastern daylight time on May 2, 2025, and before 12:01 a.m. eastern
daylight time on June 1, 2025, from 25 dollars to 75 dollars; and
(c)
increase the per postal item containing goods duty in section 2(c)(ii)
of Executive Order 14256 that is in effect on or after 12:01 a.m.
eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025, from 50 dollars to 150 dollars.
Sec. 4. Implementation.
The Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of Homeland Security, and the
United States Trade Representative, as applicable, in consultation with
the Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Assistant to
the President for Economic Policy, the Senior Counselor for Trade and
Manufacturing, the Assistant to the President for National Security
Affairs, and the Chair of the International Trade Commission, are
directed to take all necessary actions to implement and effectuate this
order, consistent with applicable law, including through temporary
suspension or amendment of regulations or notices in the Federal
Register and adopting rules and regulations, and are authorized to take
such actions, and to employ all powers granted to the President by
IEEPA, as may be necessary to implement this order. Each executive
department and agency shall take all appropriate measures within its
authority to implement this order.
Sec. 5. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department, agency, or the head thereof; or
(ii)
the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget
relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.
(c)
This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or
benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by
any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or
entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
DONALD J. TRUMP
THE WHITE HOUSE,
April 8, 2025
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