Just Released: "Transatlantic Relations Under the New European Commission"

 

 Happy to pass along the release of a new publication from the Wilson Center. This from Klaus Larres  who brought to to my attention:

The Global Europe Program of the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, DC, has just published a most interesting publication on "TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS UNDER THE NEW EUROPEAN COMMISSION" with some very illuminating essays.
My own article deals with "EU POLICY ON CHINA." Please find the pdf attached and please see the link below.

In my column 'Understanding America', the German daily newspaper Koelner Stadtanzeiger has just published the essay "DIE HOFFNUNG AUF DAS ANDERE AMERIKA." Perhaps you'll find the op.ed. of interest. I have attached the pdf.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/transatlantic-relations-under-new-european-commission

 It includes a number of quite interesting essays. Robin Quinville's Introduction to the edition follows below.

 Introduction
By Robin Quinville

On December 1, 2024 the European Union’s new Commission started its work. And while the
President of the Commission remains the same—Ursula von der Leyen—the members of this
de facto cabinet government have changed, and the tasks have been redefined. Why? Because
global challenges have changed significantly since the last Commission took office in 2019.
So before looking ahead, it is worth taking a short look back. In 2019, the Commission was
focused on crafting a European Green Deal to address climate change, on strengthening
Europe’s economy and competitiveness, on expanding digitalization (within boundaries), on
protecting Europe’s core values and furthering European democracy, and building a stronger
Europe in the world. These were priorities for a post-Brexit—and pre-pandemic—EU.
Dealing with the consequences of Brexit proved easier than dealing with the consequences
of the pandemic. COVID-19 highlighted European supply chain dependencies, underscored
differing domestic approaches to managing the illness, and strained its trade and economies.
And even as normalcy resumed, geopolitics shifted.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 changed the EU’s threat perception. It violated
the norms on which the EU itself was based. But more than that: it broadened the EU’s
sanctions against Russia, restructured EU energy sources, and brought some six million
refugees from Ukraine to Europe. The EU’s generous embrace of these refugees—including
provision for them to travel and work across the EU—won broad support in a way previous
migration waves had not.
The EU’s ability to deal with the unexpected challenges of a global pandemic and the outbreak
of war on its borders demonstrated remarkable resilience. However, it was not easy, and the
political consequences are visible not only in this year’s European Parliament elections, but
also in national elections across the continent.
In light of the remarkable shifts in the geopolitical and economic landscape, it is no surprise
that the 2024-2029 Commission has new priorities and new tasks to perform. Its new priorities
reshape some enduring goals, and put new ones up front.
First and foremost, the Commission’s focus is on competitiveness and sustained prosperity.
Included here is an emphasis on continuing decarbonization while bringing down energy prices
(the source of much popular discontent among EU citizens and businesses). Five years ago, no
one would have predicted that security and defense would take second place in the Commission’s
goal list. Von der Leyen (once Germany’s Defense Minister) has created a new role of an EU
3Global Europe P rogram
defense commissioner. Doing so places new priority on more effective European spending on
its own defense and building a robust defense industry through increased cooperation.
The last Commission’s priority to preserve the “European Way of Life” is transformed for the
new Commission into a focus on strengthening societies by focusing on jobs, housing and
other measures—answering an electorate feeling crunched by inflation and slow growth.
This goal is bolstered by other priorities: an emphasis on ensuring food security (recognizing
the role Europe’s farmers play in politics at the EU and national levels), and measures to
protect European democracy and the rule of law.
Right at the end of the list comes the recognition that Europe is Global: it must leverage its
power and partnerships effectively. That is true not only of its relations with (and support
for) Ukraine, but also for its work in multilateral fora (like the G7 and the OSCE). This priority
puts a new emphasis on enlargement as a geopolitical imperative and establishes a new
Commissioner for the Mediterranean to prompt more effective engagement with this critical
region. It also suggests an economic policy designed to ensure vital technology is protected,
that de-risking continues, and that trade policy is expanded.
These are bold goals. In the essays that follow, we will examine some of these priorities in
more detail. Because even as the new Commission takes office, the US is just weeks away
from a new administration. Future transatlantic relations will be shaped not only by meetings
between the new Commissioners and the new administration’s cabinet officials. It will also
be shaped by the upcoming years of regulatory changes and negotiations. The impact—for
example, of changes to tariff policy—can be substantial.
That is why Kellee Wicker and Dr. Sylwia Spurek take a deep dive into what the new Commission
might do on digitalization. What will the Commission’s initiatives mean for regulation of tech
companies and their services? How will the Commission balance its regulatory goals with the
reduction of bureaucracy needed to encourage innovation and economic growth? This is also
why Dr. Michelle Egan analyzes how the new Commission might approach trade policy. How
will the EU resolve its differences with the United States on tariffs and industrial policy? How
will the EU deal with China on trade? Where will it look for additional market access?
Dr. Dimitris Tsarouhas analyzes how Europe will approach the challenges associated with
building competitiveness and economic security—a priority right at the top of its to-do list for
the next five years. What will happen to its climate initiative, the European Green Deal? How
will Europe deal with the issue of critical minerals as it shifts energy policy? What are the areas
where the EU and United States might work together most productively?
With the arrival of a dynamic new High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy—
former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas—Maša Ocvirk dives into how the new Commission
will tackle the hard work of enlargement and what this means for the direction of this and other
EU foreign policy initiatives. Many Western Balkan countries have languished in candidate
Transatlantic Relations Under the New European Commission4 Wilson Center
status; will a new push bring them into the EU? Are there areas where transatlantic initiatives
can speed up the enlargement progress? How will the EU speed the path of candidate countries
like Ukraine and Moldova?
EU security policy will be bolstered by the new Commissioner for Defence. In their piece, Dr.
Iren Marinova and Jason C. Moyer tackle what this might mean for the EU’s capabilities in
the field. Will the new Commissioner be able to build defense industrial cooperation, where
shortfalls have been so visible as equipment is supplied to Ukraine? How will the EU’s role as
a security provider grow, and in what timeframe? What will this mean for the transatlantic
relationship and the NATO alliance? On energy security, Dr. Benjamin L. Schmitt highlights
the need for the EU to end all energy imports from Russia. How will the EU continue to
diversify its energy mix? How can it turbocharge its energy policy to defend against future
weaponization of energy? And on relations with China, Dr. Klaus Larres examines the EU-
China relationship and whether the EU will adopt a tougher approach towards China. What
might such an approach mean for the incoming US administration?
The next six months will be a critical period for transatlantic relations. The goal of this report
is to begin a vibrant discussion on both sides of the Atlantic and to keep it going. Global
challenges are shared challenges. Our solutions must be too.