Analysis has undergone a profound change over the last generation. Where once planning was populated by individuals and the heroic notion of human activity, today the individual has been reduced to a single data set that produces meaning only as part of an aggregate and the behavior of collectives of people, like viruses, can be understood as a set of relational linkages that can be discovered and managed. At the same time, the traditional forms of analysis grounded in extrapolation and linear thinking has been giving way to a more complex form of approaching challenges that make space not just to the non linear but also to the non-rational.
From out of these trends, scenario planning has emerged as an increasingly important tool for organizing analysis. "Scenarios deal with two worlds; the world of facts and the world of
perceptions. They explore for facts but they aim at perceptions inside
the heads of decision-makers. Their purpose is to gather and transform
information of strategic significance into fresh perceptions." (Pierre Wack, “
The Gentle Art of Re-perceiving”,
Harvard Business Review, September–October 1985)
"Scenario planning has been used by some of the world's largest
corporations, including Royal Dutch Shell, Motorola, Disney and
Accenture. . . . According to Bain & Company's annual survey of management tools,
fewer than 40% of companies used scenario planning in 1999. But by 2006
its usage had risen to 70%. As a result of its scenario planning, the
New York Board of Trade decided in the 1990s to build a second trading
floor outside the World Trade Centre, a decision that kept it going
after September 11th 2001." (
here).
It is with this in mind that I was pleased to play a small role in bringing a workshop on scenario planning to Penn State. That workshop, "Scenarios for China’s Future: A One-Day Pre-Conference Workshop" will take place on April 21, 2017, facilitated by Matthew Spaniol, an Industrial PhD Fellow at Danish Maritime, a member-based organization
representing the interests of the maritime industry in Copenhagen,
Denmark and my colleague
Nicholas Rowland. The workshop serves as an introductory event to the upcoming conference at Penn State:
New International Trade and Rules Between Globalization and Anti-Globalization.
The Concept Note and announcement follows: