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I have considered the difference among states in their ability, and disposition, to engage with the Trump Presidency's America(s) First Initiative (Merchants Negotiate and Officials Manage Discretion Fueled Legal Structures--While Mexico Bargains Brazil Adopts Countermeasures). The difference is not merely a matter of temperament, though that plays a part. The trajectories to power and authority of President Sheinbaum and President Lula da Silva have been quite different. And though they both are liberal politically, that category stretches quite a bit to include them both within it.
President Lula represents old style left of center politics; it is bound up in the frenzy and intellectual currents of the second half of the 20th century--with its ideological purities, its pragmatic ruthlessness, and its state centered institutionalism in which the State and its organs, fueled by officials exercising discretion in the serve of grand top down plans (for the people) (eg here and here). It is institutional, suspicious of private actors, and fond of democratic centralism centered on the State and its organs. It is decidedly democratic, to be sure--and robustly so--but it is also a creature of institutional foundations and administrative cultures that tend to vaunt the official (and in the case of Brazil post dictatorship, the judiciary) into an apex position. None f this is either bad or good--but it does have consequences when it encounters oppositional forces of distinctive characteristics.
President Sheinbaum may well represent a post 20th century Latin American liberalism. It is More pragmatic and objectives driven, though at the same time it is fiercely protective of the foundational political and social principles. It is also fiercely heterodox in its hybridity--one that extends to virtually all sectors of social collectivism. Ideology is a tool of that heterodoxy, to be sure, but it creates a space rather than a path. One sees this, for example, in the constitution of a commission to undertake a deep review of the Mexican electoral system "Esta comisión tendrá por objetivo la elaboración de un diagnóstico profundo del estado en el que se encuentra el modelo electoral y de partidos, y como segunda tarea el confeccionar una reforma legislativa que esté acorde con los tiempos actuales en México, en donde se ponga en el centro la democracia y el pueblo." [The objective of this commission will be to elaborate a deep diagnostic s of the electoral system and of political parties within it, and as a second task to present a package of legislative reform that is in line with the current times in Mexico, where democracy and the people are placed at the centre.] (Tarjeta informativa 34/2025: El Gobierno de México, que preside la Jefa del Ejecutivo federal, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, anuncia la creación de la Comisión Presidencial para la Reforma Electoral, que será encabezada por Pablo Gómez Álvarez).
But it is more acutely visible in the transactional platform within which President Sheinbaum and President Trump seek to engage in what the Chinese call win-win negotiations to develop a framework (the principal transaction) within which it is possible for Mexico and the United States to do business in ways that are respectful of the core principles and norms around which each is centered. That is a nice way of saying that Mexico may be as adept as the United States in deploying America First to its own benefit within the context of current power relations between the U.S. and Mexico, and with an eye toward Mexico's leading position within Latin American regionalist and integrationist circles. See Evitamos el aumento de aranceles y logramos 90 días para construir un acuerdo de largo plazo: Presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum: “Tenemos el mejor acuerdo posible, comparado incluso con las demás naciones; es decir, invertir en México sigue siendo la mejor opción”: Jefa del Ejecutivo Federal [We avoided tariff increases and achieved 90 days to build a long-term agreement: President Claudia Sheinbaum: "We have the best possible agreement, even compared to other nations; that is, investing in Mexico remains the best option": Chief Executive] In that text President Sheinbaum presents a glimpse at the mindset and framework that now drive Mexican engagement with the United States under this administration. Mexico perhaps realizes what Brazil may not--that at the end of the day popular assessment will be undertaken as a function of personal welfare; ideological purity is more compelling on a full stomach, with work to go to, fuel in the car and a house to live in. At the same time pragmatism works only to the extent that core principles are protected. That is is a self-consciously deliberate strategy is undeniable--but one made possible only because of the structire of political culture. The trick, of course, is to make good on all of this. For Mexico, that means a fairly large porfolio of win-win arrangements. The ideal would entail such arrangement of win-win transactions that can be used to create a web of pathways in. among and through them. The object is not to re-create an America First or Belt & Road Initiative structire, but to use the genius of both or either in the interests of Mexican goals.
The text of the remarks follow below in the original Spanish and in an English translation.
Evitamos el aumento de aranceles y logramos 90 días para construir un acuerdo de largo plazo: Presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum
“Tenemos el mejor acuerdo posible, comparado incluso con las demás naciones; es decir, invertir en México sigue siendo la mejor opción”: Jefa del Ejecutivo Federal
Presidencia de la República | 31 de julio de 2025 | Comunicado
- Detalló que en la conversación telefónica, que duró alrededor de 40 minutos, siempre se trató con respeto a nuestro país
- Acompañaron a la Presidenta, durante la conversación telefónica, el secretario de Economía, Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon; el secretario de Relaciones Exteriores, Juan Ramón de la Fuente y el subsecretario para América del Norte de la Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores, Roberto Velasco
La Presidenta de México, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, resaltó que, en su conversación telefónica con el presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, se logró un buen acuerdo y son 90 días para seguir dialogando y construyendo un acuerdo de más largo plazo.
Durante la conferencia mañanera, la Jefa del Ejecutivo Federal agregó que, en primer lugar, en la conversación telefónica, que duró alrededor de 40 minutos, siempre se trató con respeto a nuestro país y como resultado no se aumentan más las tarifas y, sobre todo, se salvaguarda el Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá (T-MEC).
“Logramos un buen acuerdo. Nos mantenemos como estamos y son 90 días para seguir platicando, dialogando, construyendo un acuerdo de más largo plazo. ¿Por qué es importante este acuerdo? Número 1. No aumentan más las tarifas. Si ustedes ven los acuerdos con los otros países, en realidad, nosotros nos quedamos igual que como estábamos. Segundo. Se salvaguarda el T-MEC, eso es muy importante, porque recuerden que el 25 por ciento de las tarifas o de los aranceles —así, hay que decirlo en español—, de los aranceles son para todo aquello que no está dentro del T-MEC”, puntualizó.
Expuso que se mantienen los aranceles a la industria automotriz, con el descuento que corresponde a las partes fabricadas en EUA, México y Canadá; así como al acero y al aluminio.
“Pero es muy importante que se salvaguarda el Tratado. Tercero. Mantener esta mesa de diálogo, negociación permanente con su equipo. Realmente, México sigue siendo hoy, dentro de este nuevo orden mundial, porque es un nuevo orden comercial mundial: tenemos el mejor acuerdo posible, comparado incluso con las demás naciones; es decir, invertir en México sigue siendo la mejor opción”, agregó.
Reiteró que ha funcionado la estrategia de cabeza fría, temple y defensa con firmeza de nuestros principios.
El secretario de Economía, Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon, reconoció la capacidad de la Jefa del Ejecutivo Federal para dialogar con su homólogo estadounidense y puntualizó que México mantiene una posición mucho mejor respecto al resto de países del mundo.
“Todos trabajamos para muchas cosas preliminares, pero sin ningún ánimo adulatorio les puedo decir que: el manejo que tiene nuestra Presidenta de su conversación, su trato, la firmeza con la que defiende los intereses de México, su capacidad para convencer al presidente Trump, es muy grande”, dijo.
El secretario de Relaciones Exteriores, Juan Ramón de la Fuente, reconoció el liderazgo y capacidad extraordinaria de diálogo de la Presidenta de México y agregó que al finalizar la llamada, la instrucción que recibió de la mandataria es continuar las conversaciones con EUA.
”Vamos a seguir el diálogo, seguir manteniendo las conversaciones en los diversos temas, porque ha sido una estrategia que hasta ahora ha resultado altamente satisfactoria para México. Es un orgullo, Presidenta, formar parte de su equipo”, añadió.
Durante la conversación telefónica también estuvo presente el subsecretario para América del Norte de la Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores, Roberto Velasco.
We avoided tariff increases and achieved 90 days to build a long-term agreement: President Claudia Sheinbaum: "We have the best possible agreement, even compared to other nations; in other words, investing in Mexico remains the best option": Chief Executive
Presidency of the Republic | July 31, 2025 | Press Release
We avoided tariff increases and achieved 90 days to build a long-term agreement: President Claudia Sheinbaum
We avoided tariff increases and achieved 90 days to build a long-term agreement: President Claudia Sheinbaum
She explained that during the telephone conversation, which lasted approximately 40 minutes, our country was always treated with respect.
The President was accompanied during the telephone conversation by the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon; Secretary of Foreign Affairs Juan Ramón de la Fuente and Undersecretary for North America of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Roberto Velasco
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo emphasized that, in her telephone conversation with United States President Donald Trump, a good agreement was reached and that there are 90 days left to continue dialogue and build a longer-term agreement.
During the morning press conference, the Mexican President added that, first, in the telephone conversation, which lasted approximately 40 minutes, our country was always treated with respect, resulting in no further tariff increases and, above all, safeguarding the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
“We reached a good agreement. We're staying the way we are, and we have 90 days to continue talking, engaging in dialogue, and building a longer-term agreement. Why is this agreement important? Number 1. Tariffs won't increase any further. If you look at the agreements with other countries, in reality, we're staying the same as we were. Second. The USMCA is safeguarded; that's very important, because remember that 25 percent of the tariffs or tariffs—that's how it should be said in Spanish—are for everything that isn't covered by the USMCA,” he explained.
He explained that tariffs on the automotive industry will remain in place, with the corresponding discount for parts manufactured in the US, Mexico, and Canada, as well as for steel and aluminum.
“But it's very important to safeguard the Treaty. Third, maintain this dialogue table, ongoing negotiations with her team. Truly, Mexico remains today, within this new world order, because it's a new world trade order: we have the best possible agreement, even compared to other nations; in other words, investing in Mexico remains the best option,” he added.
He reiterated that the strategy of a cool head, composure, and a firm defense of our principles has worked.
Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon acknowledged the ability of the Federal Chief Executive to engage in dialogue with her American counterpart and pointed out that Mexico maintains a much better position compared to the rest of the world.
“We're all working on many preliminary things, but without any flattering intention, I can tell you: our President's handling of her conversations, her manner, the firmness with which she defends Mexico's interests, her ability to convince President Trump, is very strong,” he said.
Foreign Secretary Juan Ramón de la Fuente acknowledged the Mexican President's leadership and extraordinary capacity for dialogue and added that at the end of the call, the instruction he received from the president is to continue talks with the US.
"We will continue the dialogue, continue holding discussions on various issues, because it has been a strategy that has so far been highly satisfactory for Mexico. It is an honor, Madam President, to be part of your team," he added.
Also present during the telephone conversation was Roberto Velasco, Undersecretary for North America of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
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