Monday, August 09, 2010

On the Cultural Ideology of Progress in Developing States--Of Mobile Phones and Ceiling Fans

It is a common place to hail progress in developing states through the ideologically infused lenses of technological choices.  This is understood as leapfrogging.  Leapfrogging suggests that once an actor has undergone the sometimes long and expensive process of change that produces technological or other goods deemed useful, that other actors might avoid the same process and leap toward the good produced.   A common example is the provision of communication services to African and Central American states, where telephone services provided through the internet or via mobile phones has produced a functional equivalence with developed states int he availability of telephone service without the need to provide a more expensive system of land lines. 
There seems to be an interesting 'social halo' effect in the statistics on mobile phone use in the developing world. Over half the mobile owners in South Africa allow family members to use their handset for free and a third do the same for friends. There are 28 million mobile phones in Africa, but there are now more than 82 million mobile users. Eighty five percent of people in Tanzania and 79% in South Africa said they had greater contact and improved relationships with families and friends as a result of mobiles. Over 85% of small businesses run by black individuals in South Africa rely solely on a mobile phone for telecommunications. Leapfrogging: a different route to development, Article 13, The Responsible Business Experts, Sept. 2005.
But leapfrogging also contains an ideological element. Thus
The term "leapfrogging" describes the rapid change made by a society or a company to a higher level of development without going through the intermediate stages observed in other cases. This connects with the idea that economic resources for unsustainable fossil technologies can be saved and thus the country can invest these resources directly in a sustainable future, instead of in infrastructure that will soon become obsolete. Ecological leapfrogging can be an alternative to development-as-catching up. It provides strategies to directly enter the phase of sustainability without going through the resource-intensive production and consumption models of industrial societies. Leapfrogging & transfer,  Globalization, Wuppertal Institute.
Leapfrogging might then serve as a vehicle to advance certain substantive political, social or cultural choices.   With respect to the provision of telephone services, the example suggested above, the process of leapfrogging can be used instrumentally.  
The concept of “leapfrog development” means that developing countries can learn from our mistakes.  Instead of the huge capital investment in equipment for phone lines and the hassle and environmental degradation of installing them deep in the country, put in some cell towers and make cell phones affordable and widely available.  Or in this case, subvert the Nicaraguan grid by investing in solar, micro-hydro and wind turbine technologies.  This is exactly what AsoFénix is doing in many rural villages like Enrique’s village Corozo.  With support from Green Empowerment, the Nicaraguan Department of Energy, the Natural Resource Department and the communities that benefit from the projects, AsoFénix is changing the face of development in rural Nicaragua.  Rebecca Bousse, Nicaragua’s AsoFénix: Leapfrog Development, Triplepundit, April 20, 2010.
But leapfrogging is also driven by business and the market opportunities it might present.   

Thus, in the context of economic development, leapfrogging can sometimes conflate notions of substantive values economics, markets, and macro policy on ecological matters that underlie the assumption that development requires all states to provide the same standard of living, in approximately equivalent form to that available in the developed world.  To a certain extent, the form of development is class laden--it suggests the inherent privilege of choices and values (including contested choices about sustainability and life style) made in the developed states of Europe and North America, and assumes without much contention, that those choices are the touchstone against which all national efforts at "improvement" are to be measured.   Leapfrogging can also serve the needs of states for internal control of their populations even as they lead to technological development.  "Authorities in different fields, as well as local governments around China, have been engaged in implementing the central authorities' strategic plans for the far western Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region to achieve what authorities have described as leapfrog development and lasting stability.Efforts to boost 'leapfrog development' in Xinjiang, China Daily (Xinhua), May 5, 2010.    

But leapfrogging as ideology also has cultural effects.  My friend, Janice Austin, in Baku, reminds us of some of the cultural effects of leapfrogging on social choices about technology that can affect virtually every aspect of daily life.
I know I may be dwelling on the hot weather here...but it is so oppressive I can see why everyone (who can) leaves in August. . . . I've developed a fairly good system to cool down the apartment. Keep the windows and curtains all closed and thank goodness, unlike many Bakuvians who normally only have AC in bedroom, there is also one in living room. . . . .
For quite sometime I've been baffled about the absence of ceiling fans here....well, after a lengthy discussion with my Dutch, soon to be ex-colleague (he's calling it quits here) the MIT trained political economist Phd......here's the likely reason. Economies/societies such as this one where the timeline for rapid growth has been so condensed will view such nascent technology as undesirable....fans seem primitive....go directly to AC once you have electricity....in fact, you see this mentally in other examples too...elevators or escaltors in buildings with no stairs....
There are also no communal or public laundry facilities...you went from hand washing to owning a machine....no need to have the in between step...no machine, hand wash.....another enlightened day in Baku...  Janice Austin, Hot Tuesday in Baku and why there are no ceiling fans here, Janice in Baku, August 2, 2010.
What emerges is a useful strategy with some interesting side effects.  Culturally, it is now common to understand leapfrogging as implying a judgment about preceding technology or technological choices as bad or as "mistakes."   As such, the ideology inherent in leapfrogging also suggests social as well as technological choices.  "‘Leapfrogging’ describes the idea that developing economies could find new paths to higher standards of living. Using technology can bypass the mistakes and limitations of the slow route to development that other nations have had to take."  Leapfrogging: a different route to development, Article 13, The Responsible Business Experts, Sept. 2005.  Some of them might be less advantageous to a population than others.  It might be useful, for example, to install a ceiling fan in Baku.  It might also be useful to use cheques instead of debit cards.   These decisions, however, are no longer technological, the ostensible basis of leapfrogging in development, but may be cultural, social, or political.  In that case, development leapfrogging might well propel the developing states in directions that have little to do with the technologies that drive the change. As the Chinese state apparatus has come to understand, technology and development can also serve the interests of the state in the governance of its people.  Yet, as Central American farmers have discovered, leapfrogging can also liberate individuals from dependence on the state (or outside economic interests), promoting engagement and economic empowerment.   

Saturday, August 07, 2010

Courting Africa--21st Century China Africa Investment and Cooperation Forum

Over the last decade, Chinese officials have been very good at staging public events designed to spotlight their growing presence in Africa, assure African leaders of their good intentions, and remind their African hosts and global competitors of the strength of their position in Africa.  See, e.g.,  2006 Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation. "At the 2009 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) held in the resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt, Beijing committed to 10 billion dollars in low-cost loans and an additional one billion dollars in loans to support the growth of small and medium African enterprises. Antoaneta Becker, China-EU Rivalry in Africa Sharpens, IPS News, June 15, 2010.  See Larry Catá Backer, “The Problems of Being a great Power: China and Neo-Colonialism in Africa, Law at the End of the Day, Nov. 22, 2006

But increasingly, these fora are being held for the further purpose of damage control--to counter perceptions in Western media that China's investment in Africa is not all positive.  Some of the reports have been embarrassing to the Chinese leadership.  See, e.g., Sebastien Berger and Malcolm Moore, Hu Jintao's son linked to African corruption probe, Telegraph (UK), July 17, 2009 ("Three people have been arrested in the country on charges of fraud, corruption and bribery involving a government contract with the state-owned Chinese company Nuctech, a world leader in scanning technology. Hu Haifeng, 38, was the president of the firm until last year, when he was promoted to being the party secretary of Tsinghua Holdings, the group which controls Nuctech and 30 other companies." Id.).  Chinese media has sought to portray Western media and government criticism of Chinese investments as jealousy from a group of states that find themselves unable to compete successfully in business against  the Chinese.  "The jealousy, or hostility from the West, comes not only from the expansion of the Sino-African economic and trade relations, but more importantly, the actual conflict of interests between Chinese and foreign enterprises induced by the increase of Chinese investments. . . . .As the Chinese companies have touched on the Western companies' "cheese", it would naturally evoke strong reactions from the rivals, and even caused some unexpected problems for Chinese investment in Africa." Xie Boyang: Public and Private Sectors Should Join Forces in Development, New Risks in African Investments , Forum on China-Africa Cooperation 2010/06/08 (From the 21st Century Business Herald, first published May 31, 2010). Also, Chinese officials have sought to suggest to those annoying problems that have affected Chinese enterprises in Africa, in many ways like those that plagued other global actors that appeared in Africa before them, are really of marginal consequence.  
Recent official media reports have been full of headlines like "the West envies China’s sway in Africa" (the Global Times) and "China and the West spar over diplomatic ethics in Africa" (Xinhua news agency’s website).

Chinese companies have encountered upsets in several African countries where they have invested to gain valuable assets - being accused of turning a blind eye to corruption and violating local laws. All this has fuelled a climate of suspicion in China that the West is waging a covert war to frustrate China’s expansion in Africa.

"China’s behaviour in Africa plays by the rules set by western powers themselves," said an article in the Chinese edition of Global Times. "While no western government can speak out publicly against China’s investment in the continent they have mobilised the media and various non-governmental organisations to find faults with China". Antoaneta Becker, China-EU Rivalry in Africa Sharpens, IPS News, June 15, 2010.
Yet, African leaders have been happy to attend these celebrations and deal making sessions, but are not above criticizing their hosts after the fact.  See, e.g., Larry Catá Backer, China and Neo-Colonialism in Africa: A Warning from South Africa, Law at the End of the Day, Dec. 16, 2006.  Still, African leaders continue to do business with China and its investors.

This pattern continues to repeat itself. The recently concluded 21st Century China Investment and Cooperation Forum provides a case in point.
Wei Jianguo, a former vice commerce minister, said in Beijing on May 28 that now is an ideal time for Chinese companies to invest in Africa.
Wei, secretary-general of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEC) made the remarks at the 21CN China-Africa Investment and Cooperation Forum.
"China-Africa cooperation is a win-win partnership for which China long ago laid a solid foundation," he said, citing the economic aid that China has provided for African countries since 1950s.
Wei said China saw its trade volume with Africa increase from US$1 billion in 1992 to US$106.8 billion in 2008.
Now, against the backdrop of China's fast-expanding economy, the role of the private sector has grown rapidly. Chinese private companies are a major force in African market, Wei said.
Wei said 2,180 Chinese companies are engaged in 8,000 projects in Africa, mainly in infrastructure and agriculture. China is also involved in the new energy business, building solar power and wind power stations across the continent.  Pang Li, Official: Now is the time to invest in Africa, China.org.cn, June 1, 2010.
Wei Jianguo, former vice commerce minister, speaks at the 21CN China-Africa Investment and Cooperation Forum held in Beijing on May 28, 2010. [Pang Li/China.org.cn]

The Chinese are well aware of its bad press, especially with respect to its business practices in Africa.  They are especially sensitive to issues involving the use of Chinese workers to displace Africans in host state projects.  But the Chinese investment apparatus has now begun to counterattack.  It has deployed its formidable media outlets to begin a campaign to counter the charges against the negative assessments of its African investments.  For the Chinese this is a natural progression--from financial to economic investment to media interventions abroad, following the now well established policy of going out. strategy (走出去).  See, e.g., Accenture, China Spreads Its Wings:  Chinese Companies Go Global (2005).  See the listing of media counter-measures (with links) provided at  Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, Voices From Media.  "China’s global political and economic aspirations are an important factor driving expansion abroad. In addition to building economic relations with more countries, China’s outward investment has a dual purpose of building China’s political capital and influence around the world. China’s chosen route to economic expansion has therefore been closely aligned with its strategy to strengthen its global political presence. In particular, for some time, business and political leaders have worked in tandem to build strong relationships with developing countries" Id., at 3.  Thus, the 21st Century China Investment and Cooperation Forum was as much about confidence building and image enhancing as it was about deal making and financial incentives from the Chinese state apparatus.
‘The 21st Century China-Africa Investment and Cooperation Forum’ held in Beijing on May 28 revealed China was shifting gears to engage more players in its dealings with African countries, courting relations with commercial associations and social groups beyond the immediate ruling elites.

"Chinese media needs to ‘go out’ too and explain to African people what China’s development model is all about," Xie Boyang, vice-chairman of the China-Africa Business Council, was quoted as saying at the forum. Xie claimed the absence of Chinese media in Africa meant that its investment there was being misrepresented by western media as "the return of colonialism".
Antoaneta Becker, China-EU Rivalry in Africa Sharpens, IPS News, June 15, 2010.
Among the items of news coverage were those stories meant both to humaize the relationship between China and Africa and to suggest the power of the Chinese within that relationship.
Lin Yi, secretary general of The Chinese-African People's Friendship Association, told a very popular "story" in Africa. An African child asked mom, "Where does God live?" Mom replied, "What do you think?" The child said, "God created all things in the world, and there are so many things in our home that are made in China, so I think God must live in China".
Lin Yi believed that since the founding of People's Republic of China, generations of Chinese leaders had always valued China-Africa cooperation on the basis of mutual benefit. These efforts have cultivated a deep friendship. "Today throughout Africa, Chinese people are treated with respect and welcome, much more so than in Europe and America. It is possible to say the 50 years of China-Africa friendship is the most precious asset. How to best leverage this asset is something worthwhile for our enterprises and investors to think about and study on. Reporting from the 1st Conference of 21st Century China-Africa Investment and Cooperation Forum, China Economic Herald, 2010-6-18.
What emerges is not just the human side of the story, but the inadvertent vertical dimension of that relationship, at least as understood from the Chinese side.  Still, Chinese missteps are not entirely denied.  "It can be seen that familiarity with local investment environment is very important for the Chinese enterprises in Africa. It is not only to understand the customs of local population, or to build schools and do charity to win over community cooperation, but it should be more in-depth understanding of the local laws and regulations and be familiar with the operation of local governments." Xie Boyang: Public and Private Sectors Should Join Forces in Development, supra.
Thus,  China is starting the face a problem similar to those that confronted the United States, Russia and the Europeans each in their own time--the problem of being a great power is that one begins to act like a great power--and that makes horizontal solidarity harder with what are increasingly understood as functional client states.  Sounding a bit like American President Obama on his African trip last year (see, Larry Catá Backer,  Democracy Part XVI: Empathy and Hubris: America in Africa, Law at the End of the Day, Aug. 6, 2009) SHI Guangsheng almost a decade ago sought to frame the core of Chinese African cooperation:
On the one hand, international community should make positive efforts and give more considerations to the will and demands of developing countries so as to promote the establishment of a fair and rational new international economic order. On the other hand, developing countries should build up a sense of self-protection, learn to make correct assessment of situation; they should prevent and convert risks, revitalize and develop national economy and safeguard economic security by formulating economic policies which conform to their national situations. Facing the new century, China is willing to work with African countries to expand common views, deepen cooperation and speed up development so as to continuously sharpen the competitive edges and have the initiative in competition. Shi Guangsheng, To Intensify China-Africa Cooperation for a Brilliant Future-- Speech by Minister SHI Guangsheng of MOFTEC In the "Forum on China-Africa Cooperation"(2000/10/11).
Still, what is clear is that the Chinese are offering Africa a potent brew--economic cooperation with a super state that tends to share its political views against its former colonial masters, and its sensibilities in matters of human rights and social organization. "China is the largest developing country and Africa is home to most developing countries. China-Africa cooperation is an important part of the South-South cooperation. The Chinese Government is firmly committed to strengthening its friendly cooperation with Africa and supporting Africa in achieving peace and development." Strengthening New China-Africa Strategic Partnership, Promoting Peace, Security and Sustainable Development in Africa (2010/05/26), Speech by Ambassador He Yafei at the Second African Forum for Dialogue (25th May 2010, Grand Hotel Kempinski). China means to deploy a host of states to assert its international position in the global institutional order.  For that purpose it needs a substantial number of client states.  Africa offers China a path to the realization of that objective.  "Only by uniting themselves can developing countries enhance cooperation in all areas, raise up their status in South-North dialogue, effectively participate in the formulation of international rules and better protect their own interests. Under the circumstances of economic cooperation, further intensification of South-South cooperation enjoys spacious room for development." Id. 

For Africa it suggests another round of exploitaiton.
 The Chinese exploitation of Afrika is a further blow to the economic emancipation of Afrika. Do not be fooled by the Chinese protestations that their relationship with Afrika is based on mutual trust and respect unlike the Western/American exploitation of Afrika.
Fundamentally the new Chinese invasion in Afrika is part of the New World Order where there is a struggle for global supremacy economically and access to Afrika’s raw materials is key to this. Furthermore the Chinese “interest” in Afrika is purely for the survival and economic interest of the Chinese and NOT the economic emancipation of Afrika. . . . 
However what the readers should be aware of is that the Chinese invasion of Afrika is another form of imperialism/colonialism similar to the Western/American model.
In Angola, for example, China’s recent $2 billion and $2.4 billion Eximbank credit lines were tied to infrastructure investments but the insidious nature of these investments is that the Chinese send in their own people to work on these infrastructure projects with many local Afrikan talent being sidelined. Kwame Osei, The China/Afrika Relationship – A New Form Of Economic Enslavement?, Zambian Watchdog, Aug. 3, 2010.
African leaders might see Chinese investment as a means of playing another super power off against Europe, Russia and the United States.  The Chinese see a means of increasing their prestige, augmenting their power in international organizations by the control of a larger number of client states, and African elites see a way of increasing sources of foreign investment without the annoying conditionality of the IMF or Developed States ideological orders.   Yet, to some extent, the Chinese are right--part of the Western response to their aggressive movement within Africa has been the result, at least in developed states, to the perceived threat to their influence in Africa.
More generally, much to their consternation, traditional Western actors are finding that their once undisputed influence and dominance of Africa is being challenged by  aggressive Chinese MNCs in collusion with the state. . . . The dilemma thus facing Western MNCs and donors, as well as African governments and concerned civil society actors, is how to successfully preserve their economic interests without undermining the structures and emerging institutions which, at least in their view, are crucial to building successful market economies within the framework of a liberal constitutional state. . . . However, there is evidence that the Chinese MNCs are, as part of their desire to emulate established global MNCs, in the process of embracing aspects of the corporate responsibility agenda. . . . Indeed, even critics admit that if one sets aside the particular cases of Sudan, Angola and Equatorial Guinea, ‘the rest of PetroChina and Sinopec activities on the African continent are not especially reprehensible’ or at least no more so than many of their Western counterparts. In the long run, perhaps it is this drive to emulate Western ‘best practice’ that will be the determining factor in Chinese corporate conduct in Africa. Chris Alden and Martyn Davies, Chinese Multinational Corporations in Africa, 2006.

And thus the dilemma for the West--and for Africa. In the end, Africa may be trading one set of dominating actors for another.   And a larger dilemma for Chinese enterprises.  In order to succeed in Africa, there will be significant pressure for Chinese firms to conform to the rules of overseas investment that has prevailed in Africa for a generation.  That may require a substantially greater willingness to hire local workers, avoid corruption, transfer technology, and avoid exploitation of local conditions--all of the complement of concerns that have plagued relations between Western multinationals and African states.  In the end there may be little different between this wave of investment and those that preceded it.  The pattern is beginning--accusation, followed by denial by the African leadership, and augmented by a targeted media portrayal in defense of the investing state.  "Zambian Foreign Minister Kabinga Pande has slashed a recent media accusation that China's aid to Africa leads to the continent's government corruption and huge debts, saying it is ungrounded. "It's unfair to say that China's aid to Africa leads to corruption and huge debut," he told Xinhua in an exclusive interview at the sideline of the ongoing 15th African Union summit in Uganda's capital of Kampala. "China's loans are soft loans. There is no serious or difficult conditions attached to that and there is no string attached to the loans from China," he said." Unfair to say China's aid leads to Africa's corruption, huge debts: Zambian FM, Xinghua, July 26, 2010. Not that this is wrong--just to be expected.  What makes it different from the sort of investment that came before it is the substantial involvement fo the state, and the coordination between state and overseas investors with respect to the character, quality and scope of investment, as China forges a fifferent kind of private-public sovereign coordinated investment.  Expect to hear more about Chinese overseas investment in the future.








Robert E. Raines On State Power Over the Authority to Solemnize Marriage

The ability to control, or better put to manage, human fertility has been one of the great prizes of institutions seeking power.  There are few societies where this power is not a great object of struggles for dominance among competing governance institutions.  In Europe and the Western Hemisphere, that contest usually pitted the apparatus of institutional religion against those of political societies.  Control of fertility is a powerful political tool, affecting substantial aspects of social, political, cultural and economic life.  It not only provides a means by which the state may control the organization and functioning of the most intimate relations among individuals, but also provides a basis for the drafting of "family units" as a key building block of political, economic and social action. 

Since the 16th century, that struggle has increasingly favored the state apparatus against all rivals.   In places like the United States, that victory was effectuated through a compromise--the state would manage marriage as a political estate, but religious officials might still perform the act in the service pf their religious communities and the state.  But sometimes the state was less generous with religious institutional competitors.  There was a time in Europe, for example, when marriage would not be officially recognized unless registered in accordance with the laws of the particular domestic legal order. For those foregoing compliance with state requirements, their unions would be considered subject to criminal penalties and their children illegitimate (at a time when illegitimacy had profound legal and social consequences).  The  effectiveness of this  state power to use of registers to control individuals has been evidenced by the mockery it has generated in literature and the arts since  the early 19th century.   Gioacchino Rossini's scene in "La Cenerentola" in which the existence of "Cinderella"  could be determined only by reference to the registers in which her birth and death were required to be registered, rather than by her physical presence, is one of many instances of this  popular and literary knowledge of the extent and character of this regulatory power.  La Cenerentola, Act. I Scene 5.

Now my colleague Robert E. Raines Has published an excellent article on the subject, "Marriage in Times of Internet Ministers: I Now Pronounce You Married, But Who Am I to Do So?, " University of Miami Law Review 64(3):809-878 (2010).   In this article, Professor Raines  considers the state of the law in the United States with respect to the regulation of individuals who may solemnize a marriage--who may, through their office, status or position, serve the state as appropriate vehicles for the regulation and availability of the marriage state as a political estate.  His particular focus is on  Internet Churches, particularly the Universal Life Church.  He examines "the decades old, yet still quite current, controversy concerning marriages officiated by ULC ministers, and suggest a solution for states which will avoid legislatures and courts having to answer the difficult--perhaps impossible--question of what is a 'true religion.'"  Raines, supra, at 814. 

Professor Raines identifies fourteen policy problems inherent in this issue.  First, there is the "patchwork of inconsistent judicial decisions regarding the validity of ULC-officiated marriages."  Id., at 834.  Second, there is the problem of the ULC holding itself out as having the legal capacity to marry individuals.  Id., at 834-35.  Third is the inconsistency of state responses to violation of its marriage solemnization laws--from criminalizing that act in Utah to less severe penalties elsewhere.  Id.  Fourth are jurisdictional issues that follow from the availability of marriage outside of physical space.  The Internet has made it possible to arrange multi-jurisdictional marriages without physical presence.  Id.  at 835. Fifth, the ULC ministers actually believe they are legally capable of performing marriages within the requisites of the law of the states in which such marriages are effectuated.  Id.  Sixth, the success of the ULC has given rise to additional Internet or cyberspace religious communities who also assert a power to solemnize marriage. 
The point, of course, is that Internet "churches" no matter what one thinks of them  from a theological or legal perspective, are here, are growing, are likely  to conduct marriage ceremonies for couples who genuinely believe they are getting married, even in jurisdictions where that is clearly not the case, or where the issue has yet to be decided." Id., at 836.  
Seventh, the consequences of these marriages valid within the religious community where celebrated but ineffective within the law-state can be severe.  This is an old issue that once affected the marriage status of immigrants marriages by established Christian Churches but not registered as required by the law of the state where celebrated.   Eighth, those consequences might not be subject to being undone, especially after the death of one of the parties.  Id., at 836. Ninth, those consequences affect third parties as well as the purported celebrants of the marriage now not recognized by the state.  Id., at 837. Tenth, voiding such marriages may have severe retroactive effects.  Id. Eleventh, potential invalidation may produce strategic behavior among the parties and produce severe negative consequences for one or the other party to the void marriage. Id.  Twelfth, that strategic behavior has criminal consequences, for example under the bigamy laws of certain states.  Id.  Thirteenth, perversely, differences between states may produce a result where a person may be deemed unmarried for purposes of criminal prosecution but married for civil purposes, as a consequence of the differential in burdens of proof between civil and criminal matters.  Id.  Lastly, of course, the resulting situation produces an uncertainty that may be politically as well as socially destabilizing.  Id.

Professor Raines would remove states form the business of regulating the capacity of individuals to solemnize a marriage even as the state retains (and perhaps enhances) its authority to control who may enter into marriage , under what circumstances, and the legal requisites for that event.  Id., at 838-841.  
Today, it is difficult to perceive of a valid and enforceable reason for the state to demand a particular marriage methodology for the couple who have obtained a license ensuring their eligibility and intent to marry, so long as the fact of their marriage is then duly registered with the state.  Id., at 840.
Indeed, the question of power ought to be separated from the question of religion not merely as a matter of efficiency and rationality, but also as a matter of constitutional requisites.  A power to manage the officiators of marriage can amount to a regulation of approved religion in ways that are constitutionally suspect.  Since, as Professor Raines notes, one deals here with a matter of power, and since there appears to be no question that this power might remain exclusively with the state for sound reasons of the maintenance of state power over its citizens and residents,  then the issue of the officiator becomes incidental and infused with constitutional difficulties.  Those with research interests int he area will also find the appendix,  listing the relevant state statutes, quite useful.  

Thursday, August 05, 2010

Inter-Systemic Harmonization and its Challenges for the Law-State

The forward looking Hague Institute for the Internationalisation of Law (HiiL) "is an international research institute, located in The Hague, the Netherlands, which initiates, facilitates and funds top-level research in the field of the internationalisation of law. It explores how national legal orders function in a world where national borders are becoming less important and where the interconnectedness of societies – and thus their laws – is a fact of life."  (HiiL).  Over the course of the last three years HiiL has organised a series of conferences on a specific domain of the relationship between law and globalisation.  They included:
For 2011,  the Fourth  HiiL Law of the Future Conference  will focus on the Law of the Future in general: how will law and the legal sector develop in the 21st century?  The specifics can be accessed HERE

Set out below is a short essay that serves as the basis for my contribution to that effort:



Inter-Systemic Harmonization and Its Challenges for the Law-State

Larry Catá Backer

We have been asked to consider, in summary essay form, three fundamental questions affecting the law-state in this century:

“What do you see as the most significant challenges for the development of the law? What developments 
are we likely to see in the coming two to three decades? What do those developments mean for national 
legal systems in the international legal order as a whole?”
The questions put at issue, in a precise way, the fundamental understanding of the basic building blocks of 20th century socio-economic political culture—and particularly the character of law, the state and non-state actors. But the questions also raise issues that are dynamic and that implicate fundamental questions of institutional form, function and legitimacy. Those issues revolve around communication, autonomy and interdependence in the governance activities of state and non-state actors, and the forms in which communication is undertaken, autonomy revealed and interdependence manifested. There is thus a dynamic element at the core of the questions that requires elaboration and that serves as the urtext for governance actors for this century. The thesis of this essay is this: Whatever the outcome in the decades to come, states and their domestic legal orders will not be able to maintain their isolation from the emerging non-national governance frameworks and retain a substantial relevance; to avoid irrelevance, states and their law systems must recognize governance polycentricity and more effectively communicate with the emerging extra-legal governance frameworks of public and private governance systems and by public and private actors. It is that dynamic element of inter-systemic harmonization and its challenges for that law-state that this essay considers, weaving this theme within the three questions initially posed.

What developments 
are we likely to see in the coming two to three decades?

At the start of the 21st century, governance harmonization has become a more complicated, more desired, and yet elusive enterprise. Even as the enterprise of harmonization has grown, states have begun to more aggressively resist harmonization as its ability to serve as a framework for the transfer of governance power from states to new centers has been more widely felt. But that element of resistance has been complicated by the entry of new actors within governance circles. Harmonization is currently proceeding simultaneously along a number of different lines—horizontal, vertical and inter-systemic—that reflect these ambiguous and multi-vector interactions and that also suggest the context in which the future of legal systems, however understood, will be determined.

Horizontal harmonization occurs between entities (traditionally state entities) roughly similarly situated within hierarchies of authorities—for example between the states of the United States, between the Member States of the European Union, or between two less formally connected states, for example between India and Chile or between other states in the global community. It can be as simple a project as finding a common language for communication and as complicated a project as integrating legal systems. This push toward horizontal harmonization of laws among sovereigns describes the great project of comparative law with its origins in European 19th century notions of the state. Much that passes for lawmaking remains at this level of 19th century conceptions, even as the foundations for those conceptions—the superiority of the state, and of the positive law produced by a sovereign demos—has been severely challenged. The challenges are both horizontal and vertical. Harmonization among states unequal in power or development is sometimes understood either as a form of colonialism (a political undertaking through law) or more insidiously, as a means of insinuating the ideologies and political choices of powerful states on less developed ones under the guise of simplicity, communication and the other virtues of legal harmonization. Even something as basic as the linguistics of law language, when transposed, can have ideological effects, especially when words migrate from the legal cultures of developed states into those of developing states. For example, the migration of developed state notions of property imported into Brazil or Panama to protect the rights of squatters on public lands has been used as a vehicle for developers to deprive these dwellers of their property through sale or mortgage foreclosures.


However, vertical harmonization continues to be grounded at its core in the state. Ironically, the great project of vertical harmonization—economic globalization—has also served to illuminate the limitations of a state centered approach to law and harmonization. The 21st Century has now witnessed the emergence of governance polycentricity, of the potential broadening of the mechanics of law beyond the memorialization of the commands of territorially bounded states, of the rise of private law with public functions and of public entities as private actors. This has substantially changed the landscape of law. These changes have given rise to the most controversial form of harmonization, at once the most interesting and potentially far reaching variant—inter-systemic harmonization, or harmonization of public and private governance systems and by public and private actors. States operating as private enterprises in economic markets, economic entities serving as substitutes for the state in weak governance zones suggest the context in which public and private governance systems remain autonomous but communicate and converge. The movement from customary and positive law to contract and the governance mechanisms of surveillance expand and change the nature and character of governing.

These changes both augment the power of states (with respect to the expansion of the palette of legitimate governance tools) and shrink the scope of its control (as other governance communities emerge with authority over actors operating within the territory of states). The management of that convergence, communication and interaction has been the great challenge for current efforts at harmonization of polycentric public-private systems existing within states and outside of the domestic legal order of any state. Projects like that of John Ruggie’s business and human rights governance framework—the Three Pillar Protect-Respect-Remedy Framework—provide a contemporary application of these issues and serve as a harbinger of things to come. Indeed, within the cluster of governance issues understood as business and human rights, for example, the intersection among domestic and international public legal orders, private governance orders, the public role of private entities and the private role of public entities become acute.

Consequently, in place of the traditional focus on the law-state and its obsession with the division between public and private, another is emerging, one in which the comparative law project will need to bridge gaps between public law based state systems and private social norm based systems. Just as lawmaking might have become unmoored from the state, the state has itself become unmoored. And so the issue of corporate citizenship serves as a proxy for the equally important converse issues—that of the private rights of states as participants in global markets. At the international level, states and other collectives might well have to meet more as equals, even as they interact within vertical hierarchies in particular contexts. But even those localized hierarchies are now unstable. Corporations negotiate “agreements” with small states; nations negotiate treaties. Large corporations can coerce small states in ways that mimic the ways in which larger states can do the same to smaller and more vulnerable ones. States and corporations are now capable of deploying forces in the field—sometimes states hire corporations that serve as mercenary armies for hire. The clear lines of public and private authority, and even the once clear lines of its Marxist Leninist opposite, have become blurred.

What do you see as the most significant challenges for the development of the law?

The construction and management of inter-relations between public and private governance communities and the move from law to extra-legal systems of behavior control will serve as the great project of the 21st century. As a consequence, the greatest challenge for law in the 21st century is to avoid becoming irrelevant in an emerging global governance order in which corporations use contracts to regulate their supply chains, states reconstitute themselves as private market actors, and private enterprises assert regulatory control of markets through authoritative systems of assessment and rating.

Consider, for example, the conventionally understood relationship between public and private law. Private law has traditionally been understood to derive its power and legitimacy from the state. It is attached to the state. The attachment of private law to the state provides a strong ideological basis for the management of private relationships by the state apparatus and the political community it represents. That attachment also suggested a place outside of which law did not reach—but which was not considered legitimate or legal, whatever its binding effect. And that was the end of it—as far as the jurisdictional boundaries and legitimacy-dignity of law was understood to extend. Thus, for example, with respect to limits on the use of real property, the focus is on the individual common law states, whose rights and obligations are mediated by the state through an application of the law of nuisance. In China, the same limits start from the obligations of individuals to the community, memorialized in the great principles of Harmonious Society mediated through the state apparatus under the leadership of the Communist Party. In theocratic systems, the focus is on the community of the faithful whose collective obligations are mediated by a priestly institution through religious law.

Beyond the law of any of these variants lies a universe of morals, psychology, markets and religion to which law was opaque (though was not above deploying discretely from time to time through the device of “policy” focus, for example), and which existed subject to the preemptive power of law. The ideology of law produced an incentive towards autarchy totalitarianism in which the highest authority is characterized as political and vested in territorially bounded states whose legitimating organs (today democracy, yesterday anything from the Kaiser to the priest) were solely vested with authority to bind all juridically recognized persons within the state. The ideology of law permitted a certain variation—sustaining the political framework of the United States, the Soviet Union, Imperial Japan, and Nationalist Socialist Germany simultaneously.

But the 21st century has witnessed the rise of a new institutional phenomenon—the functional detachment of private law from the state. This suggests a fundamental reorientation of governance, a movement away from the law-state binary to one grounded in the law-norm binary (within which the state is not necessarily present). That reorientation, in turn, suggests polycentricity, breaking the monopoly of power exercised by the state producing positive law through democratically elected institutions and reviving the autonomous force of custom. Yet this is custom of a non-traditional sort; custom is now understood as producing rules that are given force through the state apparatus (the traditional understanding of customary domestic law) but it is also now understood as producing rules that memorialize the customs of other governance communities, from multi-national corporations, to supra-national actors. Law systems, in all their traditional variation, now co-exist with the regulatory contract systems of multi-national corporations, with the governance norms of transnational law-religion systems and with supra-national organizations that produce and seek to enforce their own sets of governance norms among their consenting members.

But detachment also produces different forms of governance. Law tends to assume a simple and single dimension form—a command to be obeyed, usually in the form of an injunction to act or avoid acting in particular ways. But the forms of governance have expanded well beyond this simple and ancient technique. The movement away from law to governance techniques has also made it easier for non-state communities to develop an institutional framework and mechanics of effective governance. Monitoring, surveillance, disclosure, standard setting, binding principles, and objective evaluation techniques are among the methods of governance that have acquired an increasing regulatory aspect. One can govern as effectively by fine-tuning the classes of information required of an individual and providing consequences for the results of the evaluation thereof, as by the command of a statute.

This challenge to law suggests another—an institutional convergence in governance capacity. Developed states and the largest multinational corporations are closer in form and operation than either is to less developed states and smaller corporations. Larger corporations and developed states are then more likely to look to each other for governance harmonization than either would look to developing states or smaller corporations. That, in turn, suggests a fundamental reorientation of governance chains grounded in a functional abandonment of the public-private distinction. The resulting polycentricity becomes a powerful governance force as the historical movement toward the assertion of near monopoly power by states within their territories is reversed under the operative framework of economic globalization.

Opening borders to commerce and investment has a strong collateral effect on extent of the empire of law as the operate instrument of the law-state. Open borders permit a disaggregation of citizenship from residence, especially among investors and their investments. It also produces a power in individuals to consent to membership in communities with its own rules and institutional structures, whose objectives and functions straddle multiple territorial borders. Law now finds itself in a competitive environment of a force unseen since the Enlightenment in Europe. On the one hand, the character of law within states in changing. On the other, new techniques of law making and porous borders have increased the sources of governance. Law, like the state, has not so much been reduced in scope and power, as it has now come to share governance space with a host of different institutions producing distinct forms of command that may have some of the effect of traditional law but are not law (classically understood as a legitimate command sourced in the apparatus of a political state). .

What do those developments mean for national 
legal systems in the international legal order as a whole?

States need not embrace the passive virtues of the philosophy of quietism. Indeed, it is essential for each state to not merely rethink the basis of its legitimacy, form and function within its territory, but also to stake out a space for its positive contribution within emerging jurisdictional challenges posed by new governance frameworks and especially with respect to its areas of control. The great challenge for states is to find the way in which they might more actively engage in the processes of inter-systemic and vertical harmonization without losing their fundamental character and democratic connection with their citizens.

That task requires a number of actions. First, states must not pout; states that embrace insularity in the face of the emerging global polycentric governance orders, states that raise walls of domestic legal systems about the borders of their national territories (with the occasional extraterritorial foray) will, quite perversely, increase the ability and ease with which other regulatory actors might penetrate those barriers. The penetration would take advantage of the blindness of law-states to governance frameworks beyond the state, that is, they would take advantage of the limits inherent in the territorial borders that once served more positively as the means for asserting a monopoly of state power within them. Foreign multinational corporation regulation of host state suppliers through contract provisions with little connection to the domestic legal order of the host state, or the fidelity of host state actors to the requirements of foreign supra-national evaluation and standard setting bodies are examples of penetration that states would find difficult to prevent without foregoing those connections that are almost invariably essential to the well being of its people.

Second, states and their domestic legal orders will have to engage polycentricity within their territories. That might require some flexibility in communicating with autonomous systems and a willingness to harmonize their domestic legal order with those of important parallel systems. This future is likely represented by the governance communication and harmonization challenges faced recently by a multinational corporation in the mining business, which found itself in violation of the requirements of an autonomous international system of norms, for the conduct of its subsidiary, operating a mine through a subsidiary jointly owned by it and a provincial government in the place where the mine was located, despite the fact that the highest national court had determined that the conduct at issue met all of the legal requirements imposed by the state in which that mine was located. States without sufficient points of contact with non-state governance systems will find themselves isolated and less in control of activities that occur within their national territory.

Third, the complexities of governance, and the dispersion of governance authority pose institutional problems for states. One of the greatest is what John Ruggie has called problems of incoherence. At the state level, incoherence denotes the failure of communication and coordination of policy and law making among the various ministries and regulatory agencies of a state apparatus. The classic example is that of the South African Republic, whose negotiation of bi-lateral investment treaty provisions by one ministry did not take into account the requisites of human rights based policy being implemented by another ministry. The resulting conflicting obligations produced litigation to the detriment of state policy. At the international level, incoherence is more common and illustrated by the disjunction between the rules applicable within a state through domestic law and the international obligations of the state without direct domestic effect.

Fourth, states must avoid legal segmentation. In the context of 19th century global horizontal harmonization legal segmentation produces a harmonized law for elites driven by the state and a local traditionalist law/custom for everyone else. In places like Japan before 1945 this produced a tendency toward multiple domestic legal orders within a single territory. The same effects are sometimes exhibited in developing states subject to significant harmonization pressure through their entanglements with the global financial community regulators—the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. In the context of inter-systemic harmonization, similar patterns produce a challenge of multiple domestic legal orders that harmonize rules applicable, at least functionally, to distinct segments of the national population. Already this is in evidence—China exhibits a tendency toward bifurcated labor markets depending on whether labor is hired for production within foreign dominated supply chains or domestic ones. Bi-lateral investment treaties create pockets of private law and rule making with respect to which the domestic legal order may not play a decisive role.

Taken together, these strategies suggest in briefest form, the contours of the challenges posed by inter-systemic harmonization, and the dangers of resisting harmonization among these governance frameworks of “unequal” and distinctive governance organs—states, intergovernmental organizations, transnational private actors and multinational corporations and religions, to name only a few. States seek to remain effective and powerful autonomous actors. The expression of state power through law must remain vital. Yet these two objectives have become complicated in a world in which states—and law—no longer occupy the governance stage without competitors. States that can accommodate the new realities of power diffusion and governance variety—of corporations that regulate, of states that seek to project their power through traditionally private juridical persons (corporations and sovereign investment funds), of functional law effectuated through survey, surveillance, disclosure, standards, conditional income support programs, supply chain relations, religious command and the like—are likely to be more effective actors within and without their territories than those who hide from these changes or resist them.

But of course the effects of these transformations are also largely dependent on state power. The least developed and least powerful (politically, culturally or economically) states are likely to face these challenges in more direct and consequential form than the largest or most powerful states. China and the United States can resist emerging trends longer, and reach accommodations with the products of such trends, in ways impossible for the least developed African states. A most interesting set of challenges face states that are already deeply enmeshed in supra-national governance organizations. The Member States of the European Union have greater experience in the dynamics of cooperation within loosely binding normative structures. They also have experience in governance within diffuse governance frameworks in which power is shared among a number of stakeholders. Yet all of this diffusion remains confined to the state and its supra-national creatures. Much can be learned from the experience of Europe, though European states will have much to learn, as well, from the experiences of developing states that confront the power of transnational non-state governance. Inter-systemic harmonization suggests the possibility that law might preserve its relevance and autonomy. But it can achieve this objective only by conceding its monopoly on governance.

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

The State of the Cuban Economy: Divergent Views of Economists From Inside Cuba

At thew recently concluded 20th Annual Meeting of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, Joaquín Pujol reported  on the state of the Cuban Economy as seen by economists from within Cuba.  Joaquín Pujol, “Cuba at the Crossroads in the 21st. Century” The Cuban Economy as seen by economists within the island and other observers, paper presented at the ASCE Annual Meeting July 30, 2010, Miami, Florida. The paper is worth a careful read.  It suggests that Cuban economists, and importantly some close to the Cuban state apparatus, have begun to suggest the need for structural changes in the Cuban economy.  Here are some highlights:

Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueve, an economics professor at the University of La Habana and senior economist at the Center for the Study of the Cuban Economy in Havana, suggests that macro-economic trends since the start of the global financial crisis has"brought about serious macroeconomic imbalances." Pujol, supra.
According to him, the economy had shown a high rate of growth in the period 2001-2008 as a result of the income generated by the export of professional services-- especially of medical doctors, a recuperation of investment in construction and transportation, and a rise in energy production. The high rate of growth reported by the authorities (an average annual increase of around 6%) is a reflection of the new methodology adopted by the authorities to calculate the gross domestic product (Note: A methodology that is unique to Cuba and differs from the one used in the rest of the world. Cuba has not published details of how these estimates are made). For 2009 the growth of GDP, on this basis, is estimated at 1.4 %, and a similar or lower level is expected for 2010. (Pujol, supra).
Everleny criticizes the economic growth model grounded in the export and barter of labor services, which, he suggests, has reached a peak of development and will likely slow.  Id.  Moreover other industrial sectors have been unable to take advantage of markets  because of an inability to increase production.  Infrastructure investment is too costly given the priorities of the state in other sectors, and sugar has become an increasingly less significant sector of the economy. Id. "According to Everleny, Cuba must stop going from crisis to crisis, with solutions thought up on the spur of the moment, and advance towards a development strategy that includes a wide range of simultaneous measures, from monetary policy to those directly related to industrial and agricultural production."  Id.

Though Everleny did not, I note that over the last several months, it has been reported that despite Fidel Castro's opposition to ethanol, and an initial politically successful campaign against Brazil's focus on the use of sugar for the production of ethanol (see Larry Catá Backer, Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez, and the Response to the U.S. Brazil Deal on Ethanol Production, Law at the End of the Day March 3, 2007)), the Cuban state is now in discussion with Brazilian producers for what may be a massive investment in Cuban sugar capacity for the production of ethanol for world markets.  Nicholas Elledge, Cuba's Sweet Success May Come from an Ethanol Future, The Cutting Edge, Nov. 2, 2009.  "There are insistent rumours that President Raúl Castro has invited Brazilian experts to consider the possibility of attracting investors from the South American largest economy and a world power in sugar cane production and bio-fuels from sugar cane." Cuba--Sugar Farms Open For Foreign Investment, Meat Trade Daily, May 16, 2010.

Armando Nova González "is a professor in the EconomicsDepartment and researcher at the Center for the Study of the Cuban Economy (Centro de Estudios de la Economía Cubana) at the University of Havana. A specialist in Cuban agricultural economics with a doctoral degree in economics from the University of Havana, Professor Nova has held posts in the Citrus Group of the Ministry of Agriculture and the Central Planning Board and the National Economy Research Institute." Pujol, supra. He suggests some substantial changes in the management of the agricultural sector. These include centralizing all agricultural supervision within a single ministry of agriculture, while reducing the scope of agricultural regulation, especially at the local level. He points to a system in which the state provides overall direction but permits substantial autonomy at the local level between producers and consumers. "Of course, the market cannot be left totally to its own devices, but should be regulated by means of economic mechanisms, so that the plan and the market are compatible. One of the measures being implemented that could lead to structural changes in agriculture is, in fact, the establishment of shops where small farmers can buy what they need directly, instead of having to use the centralized distribution system that has been in place. " Id.  He would also open the agricultiural sector to more foreign investment for the traditionally sound reason that this might serve as a method for technology transfer.

Pedro Monreal González, a professor and researcher at the Center for Research on the International Economy of the University of La Habana continues to assert that the Cuban economy requires a radical change in its current model of development.  Pujol, supra.  Like other economists within the Cuban academic sector, radical restructuring is based on notions of industrialization via export substitution, a traditional pre-globalization response of developing states to macro economic challenges.  Yet it is also a position that may operate in contra to Cuban state policy of global engagement via ALBA.  See Larry Catá Backer and Augusto Molina, Globalizing Cuba:  ALBA and the Construction of Socialist Global Trade Systems, Proceedings of the 19th Annual Meeting of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, July 2009.  Monreal does suggest that both structural reforms (transformations that modify the organization of the economy) and economic reforms (changes that can be made within the existing framework) are both required.  Pujol, supra.
In his view, three fundamental structural reforms would have to be implemented to bring about the revitalization of the Cuban economy, (1) the introduction of pricing mechanisms that would allow a proper calculation of the costs and rates of returns of the activities so as to have an impact on the economic processes, (2) the adoption of appropriate incentives for the individuals and enterprises to be willing to carry on with the economic activities, and (3) the establishment of mechanisms that will help turn around situations to encourage innovations in its widest sense, so as to transform the existing disequilibrium into new opportunities that bring about a solution to the existing problems. (Pujol, supra).
These could take the form of monetary unification, exchange rate modification, restructuring of salary policies, elimination of subsidies in some sectors, creating incentives to increase labor productivity, and administrative reorganization.

Pavel Vidal Alejandro, another economics professor at the University of La Habana and a researcher at the Center for the Study of the Cuban Economy in Havana has focused on the banking and finance sectors.    He would see the state eliminate the dual currency system, the complications from working in multiple currencies with foreign investors and the imposition of a floating exchange rate.  He would see a return to the liberalization policies of the special period of the early 1990s and echoing Raúl Castro, would also advocate shrinking the size of the public sector to generate more productive economic activity.  He praises the direction of the reforms of Raúl Castro. "While these changes do not cover all the needed transformations and do not involve a substantial modification of the Cuban economic model, they merit to be pointed out. The main structural changes have been: a liberalization of certain types of individual consumptions, the turning over of the exploitation for some lands to private individuals and a certain liberalization of the labor market." Pujol, supra.  But he criticizes the speed of reform, and its reluctance to open the economy to private initiative and argues for greater foreign investment. 
______

To American ears all of this might suggest a move toward political as well as structural readjustment, or even a suggestion of instability. But that ideologically motivated  analysis would be dangerously wrong.  What the reports do suggest is that, like the United States after 2007, national economists, faced with a financial crisis, have begun to discuss ways that the economy (and its direction) ought to be restructured within the confines of the political framework of the state.  There is as much revolutionary potential here as in the now successful proposals within the United States for the purchase of General Motors and AIG, or the massive transfer of public wealth to private banks, both radical departures from conventional American political-economics in their own right.   Understood in their own right, and within the political ideological framework from which they emerge,  these summaries do suggest the possibility for flexibility in the structuring of the Cuban economy going forward without triggering revolution.  For those who might think that economic restructuring is a golden road to political revolution in Cuba, these summaries serve as a reminder that it may well be possible for the structure of the Cuban economy to change, (like that of China  after 1979) and change substantially, without requiring radical changes to the political ideology of the state.   

This becomes less clear, though, when one considers the views of the Cuban independent economist Oscar Espinoza Chepe.  Ponencia enviada por el Lic Oscar Espinosa Chepe a la XX Conferencia de la Asociación para el estudio de la economía cubana celebrada en Miami, Florida los días 29, 30, 31 de agosto de 2010.   The view is substantially less circumspect than others within Cuba.  Chepe suggests that the current economic difficulties of Cuba and the reduction of the standard of living, are proof tof the failure of the economic model of the last fifty years  and perhaps the incentive necessary to produce a consensus for change ("Esta conferencia se efectúa en un momento crucial en la historia de nuestro país; cuando empeora drásticamente la situación económica, y en consecuencia el nivel de vida de la población, lo que ratifica el fracaso absoluto del modelo de desarrollo vigente durante más de 50 años. Quizás por ello, la conciencia ciudadana ha madurando considerablemente, y existe consenso sobre la necesidad de cambios para labrar una Cuba reconciliada y sin exclusiones. ").  Id. 

Chepe notes the levels of reductions in domestic output with scarcity in the agricultural sector, a 21% drop in exports,  a drop in sugar production, a large drop in the production of extractables, and a small rise in electric production. Id.  He questions the official reports of an increase in agricultural production, transport, communications and tourism, and an unemployment figure of 1.7%. Id.  With respect to unemployment, Chepe suggested that taking Raúl Castro at his word in public remarks, the real unemployment rate is likely closer to 20%.  Id. ("cuando en abril pasado el presidente Raúl Castro anunció que sobra más de un millón de trabajadores, lo que sobrepasa el 20,0% de la fuerza de trabajo ocupada (5,1 millones de trabajadores)." Id.).

These diminished performance indicators then suggest the implausibility of real growth in the state service sector, a significantly important political sector for Cuban foreign policy. Thus:
Iguales dudas surgen con los incrementos reportados en varios servicios, en particular Ciencia e Innovación Tecnológica (10,7%), Educación (1,5%) y Salud Pública y Asistencia Social (3,4%), ya de por sí sobrevaluados por una metodología distinta a la establecida por los organismos internacionales. Esos sectores deben haber sido muy golpeados por la falta de recursos energéticos e insumos, en particular materias primas para la producción de medicamentos, y en la educación por la nueva política de reducir drásticamente las escuelas internas en el campo. Id.
On the other hand, the exportation of services, a critical component of Cuba's global engagement through ALBAa, increased slightly by 4.6%.  Id. ("Como se conoce, juega un papel decisivo la exportación de fuerza de trabajo calificada, fundamentalmente médicos y personal paramédico a Venezuela, lo que podría modificarse negativamente en cualquier momento, dada la delicada situación política allí." Id.).  Yet, Chepe also worries about Venezuela's situation, since its support is vital to the Cuban economy.  Id.  ("A todo lo anterior se añade una gran incertidumbre sobre la situación en Venezuela, envuelta en serias dificultades económicas y políticas, lo que podría incidir negativamente en la estratégica colaboración bilateral, de la cual depende la economía cubana." Id.).

But the unemployment and exportation of services sectors must be understood within a potentially disastrous demographic profile.  Cuba's population, like that of many advance states, is aging.  And its productive population is seeking to maximize individual welfare by emigrating.  The resulting pressure on services provision supported by a shrinking working age population could be challenging, though that challenge may be masked by employing some of the 20% of able bodied workers currently un- or under-employed.  Id.  Yet because of low productivity, among the lowest reported globally according to Chepe, even this may not be enough.  Id.  Despite a reported population increase in 2009, long term trends point downward.  Id.  It is no surprise, then, that the funds devoted to pensions has increased, though the government has taken steps to reduce the rate of increase by, among other things, increasing the age of retirement to 65 years for men and 60 for women.  Id.   But these palliatives only delays the inevitable--the need to increase productivity and economic activity among the masses.  Id. ("La verdadera solución estaría en crear las condiciones para lograr la elevación de los niveles de productividad y liberar la creatividad de los ciudadanos, pero actualmente resulta imposible debido a la falta de estímulos laborales, en especial los bajos salarios. " Id.).  Chepe suggests the need for a reorganization of the labor sector, not merely to augment productivity but to reduce corruption.  Id.   Corruption has increased disrespect for law and authority and permeated all levels of society.  Id.  ("Ya los robos no se limitan a los almacenes, las empresas y las unidades presupuestadas; los hurtos se realizan en las torres de transmisión eléctrica, donde son sustraídos los perfiles, con peligro de derrumbe de las misma; traviesas y raíles de las líneas de ferrocarril, bancos para sentarse y otros elementos de las paradas de los ómnibus y el no pago en ellos, y así sucesivamente sin excluir sonados escándalos que involucran a altas esferas del gobierno, como sucedió recientemente con la empresa Río Zaza sobre lo cual el gobierno no ha dado todavía explicaciones." Id.).

Balance of payments and Cuba's external debt remain objects of grave concern. Cuba has frozen the repatriation of foreign accounts in Cuban banks causing some difficulties.  In any case, foreign investment continued to suffer reductions, a trend commencing in 2008.  Cuba's foreign debt conceivably places it among the most indebted states.  It is not surprising that Cuba remains a strong advocate of sovereign repudiation.  See Larry Catá Backer, Odious Debt Wears Two Faces: Systemic Illegitimacy, Problems and Opportunities in Traditional Odious Debt Conceptions in Globalized Economic Regimes, Duke Law School, Law & Contemporary Problems, Vol. 70, 2007.  Larry Catá Backer, Ideologies of Globalization and Sovereign Debt: Cuba and the IMF, Pennsylvania State International Law Review, Vol. 24, 2006.   Balance of payments and external debt problems are magnified by internal economic contraction, with a 21.4% reduction in exports and a 37.4% reduction in imports.  Chepe, supra.  Chepes suggests that the economic situation will not improve in 2010.  

And the solution?  Substantial economic changes as the first step in a transformation of the Cuban state with a movement toward greater toleration of ideological differences.
Somos de la opinión que las reformas en una primera etapa tendrían un peso económico fuerte, pero no podrán dejar a un lado cuestiones políticas esenciales como la liberación total de los presos políticos pacíficos, el cese de la represión a los opositores/disidentes, y la ratificación de los Pactos de Derechos Políticos y Civiles, y de Derecho Económico, Social y Cultural, así como debe eliminarse la absurda prohibición de que los cubanos podamos viajar sin restricciones al exterior y regresar a voluntad, sin olvidar el derecho a la información –incluido el acceso a Internet- y de emitir libremente opiniones. Id.
Though these changes ought to be internally driven--no outside interference, Chepe concedes the importance of international solidarity, especially among Cubans living abroad.  Id. And the Embargo must end.  Id.  

________

Two distinct economic visions have been presented.  One tends to separate the economic problems faced by Cuba from reform of the political sectors.  The other suggests an inevitable conflation of politics and economics.  Each of these perspectives is ideologically packed.  But that is to be expected.  But they are not irreconcilable. Both views share important points of commonality.  Foremost is a distinct distaste for outside interference in the pace and outcomes of change.  While external solidarity is important, projections of power from abroad and the reconstruction of Cuban economic and political life to suit the policy needs of any other state (and not just the United States in this case) are likely to more deeply entrench political and economic inflexibility that will do neither the Cuban state apparatus or its people any good.  Second is the need for substantial economic restructuring.  Labor markets reforms, foreign investments, devolution of authority to engage in economic activities, real rises in productivity and a great fear of the corrosive effects of corruption  are shared. The difference is in the ends of such restructuring.  For some that leads inevitably to political change--a view belied by the possibility of substantial economic change without political revolution in China and Viet-Nam, but supported by the histories of post Soviet Eastern Europe.  For others, economic and political flexibility might be achieved without replacing the current state apparatus or the fundamental principles on whcih it is ordered.   Yet Marxist Leninist states can also take a variety of forms and retain the core of their ideological basis.  While the mixture of views is combustible, it need not be.    

Sunday, August 01, 2010

On the Effects of Protracted War on Soldiers and the State: The Voices of the Cuban Veterans of the Angolan War

It is widely understood that protracted warfare has a substantial effect on the military personnel of the combatants.  The focus has usually been on the standard list of big state actors--most recently the United States in Viet-Nam  and Afghanistan-Iraq,  and the Russians in Afghanistan and the like.  Unfortunately the conflation of ideology and political agendas among global agenda setting elites  had tended to suggest that these effects--from those on soldiers, to the responsibility of military commanders and the state apparatus--were substantially  limited to the great "imperial" powers (and thus the ideological effect).  Thus, it is not unusual to consider the largest powers exceptional in this respect.  And as a result there is a substantial interest in materials generated in their military interventions.  See, e.g., Wikileaks, Afghan War Diary, 2004-2010

But these sorts of protracted engagement affect soldiers irrespective of ideology.  And the actions of states with respect to these soldiers, and the returning veterans, appears unaffected by either the "justness" of the engagement, the strength of the ideological convictions supporting the engagement, or victory. Moreover, the legal consequences of such engagements are not solely meant to manage the interventions of the most powerful states, or the most conventionally conservative ones. As such, it would seen that the study of warfare today, in its political, economic, sociological, psychological and legal aspects requires a close study of the interventions of the smaller states in third country wars, more, perhaps than those of the larger states, whose interventions tend to set the tone for such work.

The effects of Cuba's engagement in the Angolan wars from the 1970s through 1990 is one of the least well understood in terms of its effects on veterans. See George, Edward in: The Cuban Intervention in Angola, 1965-1991, Frank Cass, London, New York, 2005, ISBN 0-415-35015-8.    This lack of attention, especially among scholars and the media, touches many of the veterans.  See, e.g., Gary Baines, "Breaking Ranks: Secrets, Silences and Stories of South Africa's Border War,"  paper presented at the 6th Global Conference (2007) Inter-Disciplinary.net (on the inattention to veterans testimonies  among South Africa's armed forces participating in the Angolan wars).  Baines notes that
Some ex-SADF soldiers have resorted to the apparent political neutrality of cyberspace to tell their stories in order to contest their invisibility in post-apartheid South Africa. The camaraderie of cyberspace has largely replaced bonding/drinking sessions in pubs and reunions of veterans’ associations. In fact, the reach and scope of the informal networks (often via email listservs or websites hosted overseas) serve as a kind of virtual veteran’s association. . . .  Such sites provide the (cyber)space for soldiers to tell their stories thereby contesting what Sasha Gear calls the “silence of stigmatized knowledge” carried by ex-combatants.  (Baines, supra, at 7). 
Like other states, Cuba has also paid less attention to the testimonies of its veterans than it might, as it seeks to preserve the official line on the war, its military involvement and the benefits that involvement brought.  The focus on this macro or "big picture" line tends to cast a long shadow on the micro  or "focused"picture generated from the recounting of the aggregate of the experiences of the people who together combined to produce the big picture effects that serve the Cuban state so well.  But like other veterans, the Cuban veterans of the Angola War have found vehicles for expression.

I have run across a cyberspace dedicated to the stories of Cuban military personnel who participated in the Cuban Armed Forces deployed in Angola during the long period of intervention.  La Última Guerra. The site is moderated by Ivette Leyva Martínez, a journalism graduate from the University of Havana now working outside of Cuba. The idea to develop this project focusing on the experiences and testimonies of Cuban veterans of the Angolan wars "surgió a raíz de una beca del Centro Knight para Periodismo Especializado en mayo de 2009." Id. Thus conceived, the website has been established as an independent vehicle for Cuban Angola War veterans, not obliged financially to any other institution for support.  Id.

The website well describes the project as follows:

¿Qué es La última guerra?

(Versión en inglés y portugués debajo)
Este blog aspira a ser un sitio de encuentro y diálogo para veteranos, víctimas y personas involucradas en la guerra de Angola, la última guerra que sufrió la nación africana, y mi país, Cuba, entre 1975 y 1991.
Para los cubanos ese conflicto bélico duró 16 años y su saldo es aún incalculable. A los miles de muertos -oficialmente 2,077- se suma una cifra desconocida de mutilados y traumatizados.
Dieciocho años después de la retirada cubana, la Guerra de Angola y sus veteranos han quedado injustamente en el olvido. Toda una generación de jóvenes en Cuba desconoce lo que sucedió en el país africano. Los veteranos han vivido con la rémora del silencio y la censura y han recibido escaso reconocimiento social. Hay pocos testimonios de los cubanos de a pie que participaron en la guerra y casi ninguno independiente de la política oficial sobre el conflicto.
Por eso invito a todos los internacionalistas cubanos y a los combatientes africanos de entonces,  dondequiera que estén hoy, a unirse a este foro, y compartir sus memorias, amargas o placenteras, de Angola.
El anonimato está garantizado para quienes lo deseen.
Este blog no recibe fondos de ninguna institución ni tiene fines de lucro.
. . . . .
What is The Last War?
This blog aspires to be a meeting ground and place of dialogue for veterans, victims and persons involved in the Angolan War- the last war suffered by the African nation and mine, Cuba, between 1975 and 1991.
For Cubans, the conflict lasted 16 years and its result remains incalculable.  An unknown number of mutilations and traumas is added to the 2,077 official deaths.
Eighteen years after the Cuban withdrawal, the Angolan War and its veterans have gone unremembered.  A whole generation of Cuban youths is unaware of the events that occurred.  Veterans have lived with the restrictions of silence and censorship, with very little social recognition.  There are limited testimonies of Cubans who actively participated in the war, and hardly any independent from the official politics surrounding the conflict.
In light of this, I invite all Cuban internationals and African soldiers of the time, wherever they may be today, to unite in this forum and share their memories, bitter or pleasant, of Angola. Anonymity is guaranteed for those who desire it.
This blog is non-profit and does not receive funds from any institution.

The site contains writings from veterans and those closely related and provide one of the most interesting set of first hand accounts of the effects of modern warfare int he field.  It also suggests the problems, apparently universal, faced by soldiers not only in their interactions with the enemy, but perhaps more poignantly, their sometimes hugely less than satisfactory with the military machinery meant to support them and the state whose promises made in the flush of recruitment sometimes evaporates to serve expediency.  One testimony posted could have been written by any American or Russian soldier coming home from their respective combat zones:
 ¿Qué sacó Cuba de todo esto? Un tema para dos peliculas, experiencia militar en otras tierras, un cementerio gigante e incompleto que hubo que transplantar de regreso, una deuda más grande, no solo con los otros países sino con su propia gente que jamás ha sido indemnizada de sus pérdidas personales, familiares, económicas o morales. Un tema para discursos o mesas redondas. Un trauma histórico insuperable en las mentes de los que estuvimos allí como simples mortales, jugándonos el pellejo por un ideal en el que creímos en aquel momento, como peones de un ajedrez que no entendíamos, mientras torres, afiles y caballos vivieron la vida a costa de nosotros. (What did Cuba get out of this? Themes for two movies, military experience in other lands, a giant unfinished cemetery brought home after the return of forces, a larger national debt not only to outsiders but to Cuba's own people who have yet to be indemnified for their personal, familial, economic or moral losses.  A theme for discussion of roundtables.  An insuperable trauma in the minds of those of us who were there as simple mortals, risking our necks for an ideal in which we believed at the time, like pawns in a chess game who did not understand, while castles, bishops and knights lived life at our expense). Un trauma histórico insuperable, La Última Guerra, May 15, 2010 (relating the testimony of someone going by the moniker "supermario"). 
 But most importantly, reading the remembrances of the individual veterans reminds us that war is not felt differently by the combatants on either side.  Nor, more  importantly, are the institutions that manage these events likely to deal with their military personnel in ways that are significantly different.  What Gary Baines suggested as a lesson from the South African experience might well apply to Cuban as well:
The SADF learned the (mistaken) lesson of Vietnam from the United States forces that unrestricted media coverage of war could be demoralizing and self-defeating. Accordingly, the Border War was waged away from the public eye. Censorship and disinformation served to create a conspiracy of silence.  (Baines, supra, at 2).
The Cuban veterans of Angola have much in common with their American and ironically enough, their South African,  counterparts.