Saturday, January 31, 2026

On the Brink or a Blip in Dysfunctional Relations?--Cuba Prepares for Total War; President Trump and the "Venezuela Deal"; Executive Order "Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba"

 

Pix credit CNN

 VERSIÓN EN ESPAÑOL AQUÍ

Cuba is now preparing for what its current leadership may believe to be an end game.  Of course it need not be; but the leadership has, as it has for a long time, been driven relentlessly by the inevitabilitties built into its way of looking at the world and from it constructing the alternatives which its values present top it. 

In a sense, the Cuban vanguard has been preparing for this day for a very long time. It is, perhaps one of the final markers of the 20th century's age of heroic (left and right) leader gods--leader gods that saw in the states and systems they built a very large funeral pyre on which their own hopes, dreams, and aspirations would be consumed. In this, perhaps, the 18th and 20th centuries represent the book ends of the political limiting concepts of the Enlightenment and its rationalizing cognitive cages.  The 18th century brought to its highest level of development the "enlightened despotism" in anbolute monarchy. The 20th century saw the rise of the enlightened despotic ideology incarnated in a vanguardist apparatus. Everywhere. . . from "l'etat c'est moi" to e pluribus unum or perhaps "unity in diversity" and its Leninist variations. 

Cuban authorities have already  taken public steps to put the Republic on a wartime footing, expecting a total war of the people. Discussed HERE: "Al imperio que nos amenaza le decimos: ¡Cuba somos millones!:" Discurso pronunciado por Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, Primer Secretario del Comité Central del Partido Comunista de Cuba y Presidente de la República,

Now the United States has weighed in. On 29 January President Trump issued an executive order: Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba. That Executive Order was accompanied by a companion document: Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Addresses Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba.

The Executive Order is quite interesting. It appears to provide Cuba with a Venezuelan solution that could, effectively, allow it to keep the substance of its governance system (at least for a little while). Consider the objective of the Executive Order as summarized in the Factsheet:  

  • The Order imposes a new tariff system that allows the United States to impose additional tariffs on imports from any country that directly or indirectly provides oil to Cuba.
  • The Order authorizes the Secretary of State and Secretary of Commerce to take all necessary actions, including issuing rules and guidance, to implement the tariff system and related measures.
  • The President may modify the Order if Cuba or affected countries take significant steps to address the threat or align with U.S. national security and foreign policy objectives.

The first two objectives represent he standard issue tactics of the 2nd Trump Administration. It is the third objective that draws attention. The key is in the "deal"--if Cuba's government takes "significant steps to address the threat or align with U.S. national security and foreign policy objectives" then the Executive Order can be modified (likely along with other measures). The opening negotiating stance is roughed out in the Factsheet:  

  • The Cuban regime aligns itself with numerous hostile countries and malign actors, hosting their military and intelligence capabilities. For example, Cuba hosts Russia’s largest overseas signals intelligence facility focused on stealing sensitive national security information from the United States.
  • Cuba provides safe haven for transnational terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, and supports adversaries in the Western Hemisphere, undermining U.S. sanctions and regional stability.
  • The regime persecutes and tortures political opponents, denies free speech and press, profits corruptly from the Cuban people’s misery, and incites chaos by spreading communist ideology across the region.
  • The choke point, of course, is petroleum. The first phase eliminated Venezuelan supplies; the second the traditional handout by the Mexican government (Mexican president says her country has paused oil shipments to Cuba ("'Pemex makes decisions in the contractual relationship it has with Cuba,' Sheinbaum said in her morning news briefing. 'Suspending is a sovereign decision and is taken when necessary.'"). And Secretary Marco Rubio suggested the contours of the situation from the U.S. perspective:  US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stopped short of confirming whether the Trump administration would actively pursue regime change. Testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio when pressed on whether Washington would rule out a US-backed effort to remove Cuba’s current leadership noted that, indeed, that was an agenda set by Congress a generation ago. (Video: ‘Won’t rule out…': Marco Rubio stuns Dem Senator, rejects ‘no-regime-change’ pledge on Cuba)

    Pix credit here 
     

    Now. . . . let's make a deal!

    Is a deal possible? Perhaps.  I suggested the contours of a deal space in my remarks delivered at the Annual Meeting of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy in October 2025: "Legal-Institutional Foundations for Reconstruction in a Post-Revolutionary Cuba: A Conceptual Exercise," Remarks prepared for delivery at the 2025 Annual Conference of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, Miami, Florida, 25 October 2025. I left it this way: 

    The project of transition ought to please no one; ought to be directed to the strategic benefit of no group; and ought to avoid the arrogance, so much on display by leaders of the past several generations, that they are best situated to declare what is right, good, and necessary, including the determination of the political economic model of sovereign peoples and the institutional-legal systems created for the fulfillment of its objectives.

    That is not to say that transition is to be avoided. All states are in a constant state of transition; one need only look closely at the United States, Cuba, and China since 2008 to see quite clearly the unavoidability of that trajectory.  The development of strong, authoritative and legitimate institutional-legal foundations in aid of transition is vital. In the case of Cuba that is meant to accompany not transitions that may sit of the margins of stable political economic models, but at its very center. That creates a more dynamic element in which such restructurings may be profound and profoundly transformative. At the same time, a lust for collapse and chaos ought not be satisfied, even by those who might be tempted to work toward those ends. In Cuba transition must start from the current situation. It might prune that which impedes and nurture that which moves state, government, and the satisfaction of popular need forward. That will require a change in the political economic model, a change that can be undertaken even within the broad umbrella of Marxist-Leninism. But the nomenklatura must be  reformed and its role refashioned, and the role of the informal market must become part of the operation of the political economy of a state in transition.

    To those ends, the Cuban legal institutional system requires tweaking but not comprehensive reform; it requires capacity building in the context of administrative law (protect against abuse of discretion), in the law of economic collectives that exist beyond the state, and especially in the law of contract. Those changes require the develop of institutional capacity, one with respect to which may provide a basis for the re-education and repurposing of the nomenklatura.* * * 

     Lastly, and of critical importance is the issue of the insularity of Cuba. The construction of “Fortress Cuba” by the military and nomenklatura elements of power  has certainly served their short term interests. However, at some point Cuba will have to open up. That also requires the development of a host of institutions and legal regimes. The issue is complicated depending on how strong the desire to avoid instability may be.  It is likely that the safest route is a gradual opening up by expanding, in stages, the reach and operation of Special Economic Zines, like Mariel. Those can be used, as the Chinese did a generation ago, as the spaces where the apparatus can experiment with transition, develop institutions and legal regimes to suit the context, and then role them out to provinces and then nationally. At the same time, here institutional and legal development might profit more from the dual circulation model of the Chinese or its American version as part of the America First project, as a way of protecting the internal integrity of the state while preparing for better integration with the rest of the world.  In any case, given the size and diversity of experience of the diaspora community, a community the penetration of which into the national territory is inevitable, such a project of institution-law building, a project of the law of Special Economic Zones, may play a vital role in the short and medium term. * * *  

    It is not for us to make the determination of details. That ought to be left to the people; but it does require a reconstitution of the PCC and its work style and objectives in ways that they may not be willing to take. If that is the case then a transition back to a military post-revolution government may be the best way forward. The bottom line, though, is simple: unless one is planning to absorb the Cuban Republic into a larger metropolitan State-empire, it is improbable to develop before the fact any detailed set of institutional legal structures that might be applied to Cuban transition. I leave that to utopians, politicians, and revolutionaries. (Legal-Institutional Foundations for Reconstruction in a Post-Revolutionary Cuba: A Conceptual Exercise)

    The Cuban government's response was necessary and predictable (Cuba condena y denuncia nueva escalada del cerco económico de Estados Unidos; which follows below. Nonetheless, conditions have changed, and the pathways to stability beyond a governance of misery remain difficult (Cuba and the Constitution of a Stable State of Misery: Ideology, Economic Policy, and Popular Discipline). As much as it may pain the nomenklatura--so desperate to stop time and preserve those glorious moments of the 1970s and the transition from revolutionary to Communist government (Cuba’s Caribbean Marxism: Essays on Ideology, Government, Society, and Economy in the Post Fidel Castro Era; also here)--it may be time now to move forward either toward a socialist markets system or to reset back to January 1959 and consider a different way forward from a revolutionary government. In that respect Chinese notions of self-revolution and social revolution might be worth considering by the administrative and Party apparatus of state (Brief Reflections on 坚定不移把党的自我革命向纵深推进——习近平 [Xi Jinping, Resolutely Advance the Party's Self-Revolution to a Deeper Level]).  The essence of this change will require the rectification of the nomenklatura (hard but possible) and the incorporation of the mores and practices of the informal economy as the new basis for Cuban economic development, even with a socialist overlay.

    The texts of the executive order: Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba. and the companion document: Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Addresses Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba follow below, along with the Cuban government response--Cuba condena y denuncia nueva escalada del cerco económico de Estados Unidos.

     

    CONFRONTING THE CUBAN REGIME: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order declaring a national emergency and establishing a process to impose tariffs on goods from countries that sell or otherwise provide oil to Cuba, protecting U.S. national security and foreign policy from the Cuban regime’s malign actions and policies.

    • The Order imposes a new tariff system that allows the United States to impose additional tariffs on imports from any country that directly or indirectly provides oil to Cuba.
    • The Order authorizes the Secretary of State and Secretary of Commerce to take all necessary actions, including issuing rules and guidance, to implement the tariff system and related measures.
    • The President may modify the Order if Cuba or affected countries take significant steps to address the threat or align with U.S. national security and foreign policy objectives.

    COUNTERING CUBA’S MALIGN INFLUENCE: The President is addressing the depredations of the communist Cuban regime by taking decisive action to hold the Cuban regime accountable for its support of hostile actors, terrorism, and regional instability that endanger American security and foreign policy.

    • The Cuban regime aligns itself with numerous hostile countries and malign actors, hosting their military and intelligence capabilities. For example, Cuba hosts Russia’s largest overseas signals intelligence facility focused on stealing sensitive national security information from the United States.
    • Cuba provides safe haven for transnational terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, and supports adversaries in the Western Hemisphere, undermining U.S. sanctions and regional stability.
    • The regime persecutes and tortures political opponents, denies free speech and press, profits corruptly from the Cuban people’s misery, and incites chaos by spreading communist ideology across the region.
    • These actions constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy, requiring immediate response to protect American citizens and interests.

    PUTTING AMERICA FIRST: President Trump has consistently confronted regimes that threaten U.S. security and interests, delivering where others have failed to hold adversaries accountable.

    • President Trump is continuing efforts from his first term to stand with the Cuban people and hold the regime accountable.
      • In his first term, President Trump implemented a robust policy toward Cuba, reversing the Obama Administration’s one-sided deal that eased restrictions without securing meaningful reforms for the Cuban people.
    • In June 2025, President Trump implemented partial travel restrictions on nationals from Cuba due to its role as a state sponsor of terrorism, its failure to cooperate or share sufficient law enforcement information with the United States, its historical refusal to accept back its removable nationals, and its high visa overstay rate.
    • In June 2025, President Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) to strengthen the policy of the United States toward Cuba.
    • This is not the first time President Trump has taken a tough stance against hostile regimes—in just the past few months, he has ordered strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and authorized operations to remove Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro from power, making clear that dictators and state sponsors of terrorism will be held to account.

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